An independent analysis of NASA's space program indicates that the US Aerospace Agency will not be able to send humans to Mars by 2033. According to the most optimistic estimates, this may not happen until the end of the 2030s, according to the SpaceNews portal, with reference to the corresponding document. Despite the fact that the report itself was prepared even before the official statements by the US Administration at the end of March this year that the country should land a man on the moon by 2024, the document offers a fresh look at the cost of the new US lunar program, as well as the prospect of the subsequent this human exploration of the Red Planet.
To prepare a side view of its program, NASA, at the request of the American Congress, announced back in 2017, turned to the Science and Technology Policy Institute (STPI). The document was drawn up taking into account an assessment of the agency's technological capabilities and the cost of a long-term program, the goal of which is to send American astronauts to Mars in 2033.
The object of the analysis was a new report by the aerospace agency entitled "Research Company", which describes the prospects for the development and operation of the new Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle, the new Orion manned spacecraft (will work in tandem with the SLS), and the development of the program for the construction of the lunar station Gateway in the 2020s is being evaluated. In addition, it also discusses the development of a manned spacecraft Deep Space Transport (DST), specifically designed for flights in deep space, including to Mars. The new NASA program also includes the development of several lunar landing modules and lunar rovers. In addition, the agency also needs to develop new life support systems for astronauts for life in the circumlunar space and lunar environment,and similar systems for subsequent manned missions to Mars.
According to STPI experts, all this work will take a very long time for the agency to be able to meet the originally announced dates for the first manned mission to Mars in 2033.
The report focuses on technology risks that question the agency's ability to be ready for a manned Mars mission by 2033. In particular, it talks about the complexities of the development of the reusable Deep Space Transport spacecraft, the necessary technologies of propulsion systems, as well as life support systems, the creation and testing of which will take a very long amount of time. The agency needs to develop and test all critical technologies by 2022, which is unlikely, the report notes, to make it on time for its 2033 mission. If the development of the program is carried out without taking into account these critical technologies, then problems with the development of Deep Space Transport itself may arise already during the design phase,which in turn will lead to delays in program implementation.
In addition, the report indicates that a financial appraisal of the Deep Space Transport development should begin as early as 2020, which is also unlikely since the DST does not even exist in the technical documentation. The report explains that an attempt to speed up the work schedule, which will go against the existing NASA space mission training standards, "will lead to high technological and financial risks" of the future program.
Thus, according to the report, "a manned mission to Mars in 2033 from a technological point of view and taking into account the schedule of its preparation is simply impossible." The next launch window will open in 2035, but the report indicates that by this time NASA will not be able to prepare everything necessary for this mission, so the earliest date is called the launch window, which will open in 2037.
STPI specialists also calculated the approximate cost of the first Mars mission, slated for 2037. Thus, the total cost of the development and preparation of all critical elements of the program, including the SLS launch vehicle, the Orion spacecraft, the creation of the Gateway lunar orbital station, the DST spacecraft, as well as other necessary infrastructure will cost the country approximately $ 120.6 billion by 2037 … At the same time, it is noted that only one development of SLS and Orion, as well as the corresponding infrastructure for their future operation, has already spent $ 33.7 billion.
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The document states that the cost of developing the DST spacecraft will be about $ 29.2 billion. However, it should be borne in mind that these figures are very approximate, since no one has ever seen the finished design documentation of the device. Therefore, STPI made calculations taking into account the development cost of the Orion spacecraft. Interestingly, the total cost of the Gateway space station is estimated by experts at "only" $ 6 billion. STPI analysts explain this by the fact that NASA partners will be engaged in the development and dispatch of part of the modules of the new circumlunar station - the project will be international. Therefore, their cost was not included in the general budget of the American agency.
Moon landings cost
The mission to Mars is just part of NASA's overall new manned space exploration program, which analysts estimate will cost the United States approximately $ 217.4 billion by 2037. This money is going to be spent not only on flights to Mars, but also on projects in low-earth orbit, as well as on the development of elements of the Martian infrastructure, which will be required in further missions of the American agency.
A series of landing missions on the lunar surface are also included in the budget. The report predicts that the first manned landing on the moon will take place in 2028 - it was on this date that NASA itself counted before the statements of the new US Administration, which set the agency the task of returning American astronauts to the Earth satellite in 2024. Further, the agency expected to conduct one manned mission to the Moon until 2032.
The document evaluates a three-stage system that NASA is going to use for manned flights to the moon. The agency presented her device last year. Then it was about the use of systems with a reusable first stage, a spacecraft and expendable stages for landing on the lunar surface. With this in mind, the document indicates that the landing modules and the refueling system will cost the agency $ 8 billion. Such costs will allow a series of several pilot unmanned missions, as well as five manned satellite landings. An additional $ 12 billion will have to be spent on launches of SLS, Orion spacecraft, and other missions to deliver lander, fuel and other cargo to the satellite. It is indicated that the announced figures do not include the cost of the SLS development itself,Orion and Gateway station.
In addition to this, STPI experts report that they estimate the cost of the first landing on the moon will cost NASA about $ 2.44 billion. This money will go both for the launch itself and for the development of the equipment necessary for it. Several billion more will need to be spent on the creation of landing modules.
Nikolay Khizhnyak