Depending on the age, the probability of this ranges from less than 5% for people under the age of 20 to over 66% for people over 70.
About one in five people on Earth, or about 1.7 billion people, are at risk of getting a severe form of COVID-19 if they contract a new type of coronavirus. This conclusion was reached by scientists who analyzed data from health systems in 188 countries around the world. The South China Morning Post writes about this with reference to an article in the scientific journal Lancet.
“Our estimates are rough and based on the most basic risk factors, rather than more specific ones such as ethnicity, socioeconomic conditions and obesity. However, they can serve as a basis for assessing how many people need to be protected, vaccinated in the first place,”the scientists write in their work.
During the time that has passed since the outbreak of coronavirus infection, scientists have found out which segments of the population are most vulnerable to the disease. These are mainly people with chronic diseases of the lungs, cardiovascular system, kidneys, obesity and diabetes. In order to effectively protect such people from infection in the event that they all become infected with a new type of coronavirus, it is necessary to prepare enough places for them in hospitals and doses of medicine when it is created.
To assess what figures the authorities of different countries need to count on in this case, scientists analyzed data from health systems of 188 countries and the UN forecast of an increase in the world's population for 2020. They concluded that 1.7 billion people on Earth (which is about 22% of the total population of the planet) have at least one disease that increases the risk of getting a severe form of coronavirus infection. 349 million of them have an even higher risk: if they contract the virus, they will need hospitalization.
In all cases, the likelihood of complications varies with age: the older the person, the higher the risk. The study confirmed the findings of previous studies that men are more vulnerable to the virus than women: new evidence suggests that 6% of men and only 3% of women have an increased risk of complications from COVID-19.
In terms of countries, the danger of coronavirus infection will be more pronounced for countries with a high average age of the population, African countries, among whose inhabitants AIDS is more common, as well as for residents of small island states with a high incidence of diabetes.
Now in the world, according to Johns Hopkins University, about 9.6 million people have been infected with a new type of coronavirus. About 490 thousand infected people died, about 4.9 million people recovered. Outside the PRC, the disease COVID-19, which causes this virus, was detected in 188 countries, including Russia.
Promotional video: