Rising sea levels will affect more people than previously thought by 2050 and threaten several of the world's largest coastal cities, according to recent research. The authors of the work, which is published in the journal Nature Communications, developed a more accurate way to calculate sea level rise and found that previous figures were too optimistic. The results showed that about 150 million people currently live on land, which will be submerged by mid-century.
Already today, a large number of residents of coastal regions are facing floods and floods.
Sea level rise is a direct result of climate change. Rising global temperatures have melted Arctic ice caps, which in turn have raised sea levels. New forecasts from Climate Central - an independent organization of scientists and journalists that research and report facts about climate change and its impact on society - based on data collected using a machine learning tool, showed that the problem is much more serious than experts thought.
The flood threat is more serious than expected
To understand how vulnerable coastal populations are to sea level rise, it is necessary to understand how high the land is. The fact is that the world scientific community has always focused on what is constantly changing - and this is the sea level. In their work, the research team proposed a fresh look at the problem and revise the land height data that were used for global and international estimates of sea level rise. The researchers used artificial intelligence to develop a new terrain model that eliminated inaccuracies. As a result, it was found that three times more residents of coastal cities would be vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal floods in the coming decades.
Bangkok underwater at high tide. Left: old forecast for 2050; Right: New forecast for 2050.
The researchers note that it is not yet known which cities will be affected by the rise in sea level, and which will be completely wiped off the face of the Earth. As reported by The New York Times, the work did not take into account measures to protect coastal cities from emergencies, which can be taken by the leaders of the countries. Nevertheless, according to the results obtained, more than 110 million people already live in regions below the tide line. Thus, scientists view sea level rise as a very serious threat to the lives of hundreds of millions of people in the coming decades.
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Vietnam underwater at high tide. Left: old forecast for 2050; Right: New forecast for 2050.
Which countries will be affected by rising sea levels?
The results indicate that Asia, home to many of the world's most populous cities, could be seriously affected. Downtown Shanghai and other nearby cities are at risk of being submerged. Overall, the researchers concluded that more than 151 million people in Asia alone could be affected by floods. Attached to the study are maps showing past expectations of the flooded regions by 2050 and current ones.
Mumbai (India) under water at high tide. Left: old forecast for 2050; Right: New forecast for 2050.
So, today in Thailand, more than 10% of citizens live on land, which could go under water by 2050, compared with 1% in accordance with previous models. Researchers believe climate change will put pressure on cities in a variety of ways. While vast areas are threatened with flooding, global warming will force farmers to leave their homes and seek employment in cities. Scientists suggest that the heads of state take protective measures and begin the construction of dams and barriers. Moreover, you need to get to work as soon as possible.
Alexandria underwater at high tide. Left: old forecast for 2050; Right: New forecast for 2050.
The second largest city in Iraq, Basra, is also under threat. Moreover, according to new forecasts, much of Mumbai - the financial capital of India and one of the largest cities in the world - is at risk of being destroyed. In general, according to the results of numerous studies, climate change threatens not only the suffering of millions of people around the world, but also the disappearance of cultural heritage. Thus, Alexandria, founded by Alexander the Great around 330 BC. in Egypt, can be completely submerged. Also, experts warn of the threat of an increase in regional conflicts that may flare up due to the large number of climate refugees.
Lyubov Sokovikova