In a few decades, the world ocean level may rise by 5-10 cm, which will cause a doubling of the number of floods in the Pacific Islands, San Francisco (USA), Mumbai (India), Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam), Abidjan (Cote d'Ivoire) and other tropical regions.
These conclusions were reached by an international team of experts from the Center for the Study of the Pacific Coast and Sea as part of the US Geological Survey, the University of Illinois at Chicago and the University of Hawaii at Manoa.
The sea level rises by 4 mm annually due to the melting ice of Antarctica and Greenland. By 2050, it can grow by 10-20 cm, and by 2100 - by a meter, according to forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, compiled in 2013, and by 2-3 meters - according to more recent estimates.
According to the head of the study, a specialist at the University of Illinois at Chicago Sean Vitusek, it is impossible to avoid rising sea levels. “To prevent frequent flooding, coastal residents will have to adapt,” says Professor Thomas Wahl, who studies coastal risks at the University of Central Florida.
As scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Simon Fraser University have established, the sea will expand, even if countries reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero by mid-century. However, this process can be slowed down, and in particular, the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer contributes to this.
In Russia, frequent flooding threatens St. Petersburg, located on the shores of the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea). According to forecasts of Artyom Pavlovsky, a specialist at the Research Institute of the General Plan of St. Petersburg, the water level in the bay will increase by 5-8 cm by 2050 and by 11-12 cm by 2100. From 1979 to 2008, the city recorded 63 floods, nearly double the number in the previous 30 years.