Analyst Igor Nagaev on the conflicts around "resource number 1". Igor Alexandrovich, the number one resource of mankind is not oil, not gas or gold, but fresh water. How much fresh water is on Earth now?
Igor NAGAEV. Water covers approximately 70% of the globe. Fresh water - only about 3%. And most of it is in the form of icebergs and glaciers. The rest exists in the form of external reservoirs and groundwater.
Fresh water is very unevenly distributed. If the Soviet government had not built reservoirs and canals in the 1920s and 1930s, then in Moscow, for example, it simply would not exist. In the sense that we are used to it - you turn on the tap and please!..
Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, there were plans not only for the construction of the Third Transport Ring in Moscow, but also for new reservoirs and dams. Because there was an assumption that the population of the capital will grow significantly. However, after 1991, many factories were closed, and they consumed a lot of water. Take Hammer and Sickle for example …
Production requires water - an axiom
Igor NAGAEV. According to experts in this field, the production of one ton of steel (from mining ore to the moment it turns into steel) takes 150 tons of water. When such consumers of water as the “Serp and Molot” metallurgical plant were removed, their areas were occupied by various business centers. With all their desire, people there will not drink as much water as metallurgical production consumed. Therefore, for some time the problem of new reservoirs for Moscow receded into the background.
Yes, of course, our country has Lake Baikal, the great rivers Ob, Yenisei, Lena and so on.
But not many of our people live there yet
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Igor NAGAEV. Yes. Much is written about Baikal in the media, but I would like to retell one life episode, which was told to me by the driver of a company car, who drove me around Irkutsk. At one time he was present at the opening of the famous Baikal Pulp and Paper Mill. Moreover, he was the driver of the director of this enterprise. When, according to him, they came from Moscow to accept the launch of the plant (of course, the minister was present), such a scene took place at the treatment plant. So the minister asks: "And you won't kill Baikal?" Director to him: “The water is clean, you can drink after use. Let's try!" The minister turned pale, but the director calmly poured several glasses of water: one for himself, one for him, someone else from the delegation and the driver. They all drank, nothing happened. And the water was good, tasty.
But this was in Soviet times, when for violation of any state standards at such facilities, they were punished in full. When the orgy of rumors began around the plant, it became clear that they would not leave him alone. But, perhaps, in the post-Soviet era, the treatment facilities also worked somehow "wrong" …
Needless to say, the problem of fresh water in the world is now so urgent that many international organizations, including the UN, give it top priority.
There is evidence: 50% of the world's population does not have access to normal fresh water! This applies to most of those living in Africa and a considerable number of the population of the Near and Middle East.
Not to mention the fact that if there is not enough fresh water, then the Hammer and Sickle plant in Africa cannot be supplied. Therefore, in some regions, industrial development is already limited by nature itself
Igor NAGAEV. In the USSR, for example, hydroelectric power plants were built in those places where they were needed for the needs of a particular industry. Urban conglomerates emerged along the same lines. They are where the big factories are.
Still, water is mainly used for agriculture, which needs both natural precipitation and artificial irrigation
Igor NAGAEV. Yes, about 70% of all fresh water that is used by people goes to agriculture, primarily for irrigation. For the so-called housing and communal services - about 10%. And the remaining 20% - for technical needs and so on. However, it is not enough to allocate water for irrigation - you still need to be able to use it. For example, the system of irrigation canals, widespread in Soviet times in Central Asia, has exhausted itself by today, since there are a lot of people, and a large percentage of water losses with this method are due to evaporation.
It was, in fact, an open water supply system
Igor NAGAEV. Yes. This method has exhausted itself. You have to do it in a new way, and that is expensive.
In addition to water from open sources, a lot of groundwater is also used. In Europe, for example, 70% of fresh water comes from underground sources. In some parts of America, in northern India, it is the same. But these sources are now almost exhausted.
Despite the seepage of atmospheric precipitation, have you exhausted the resource?
Igor NAGAEV. Yes. Take California, the US food state that supplies the country with fruits and vegetables. In recent years, due to fires and droughts, this state has approached an unpleasant milestone: sown areas have begun to shrink significantly, and the groundwater level has dropped sharply. If we take the city of Los Angeles, located in the south of California, then according to the forecasts of American scientists, in the next couple of years, millions of people will need to be evicted from it so that only one million remain. Because there is enough water for a million.
At the same time, people move there all the time
Igor NAGAEV. Yes. If we take another state, Nevada, which has suffered even more from the droughts of recent years, then in Las Vegas, as you know, water comes from a reservoir. But it also ends.
The problem of water use in the United States is so pervasive that it concerns the high-water region of the Great Lakes. Thirty years ago, the federal authorities imposed crazy fines for enterprises that did not have a full cycle of water purification, using it “in a circle”. As a result, a large number of factories were closed or moved to China, as the “closed loop” systems are very expensive.
But in China, all rivers are polluted due to the same high cost of these systems. In the sixties and seventies, when the country was being rebuilt, no one thought about it. The task was simply to feed people, build new roads …
Take now Saudi Arabia. More recently, it exported wheat to its neighbors, extracting water from the depths of the Arabian Peninsula. Now this story is almost over - Arabia buys grain.
There are, of course, areas of risk of depletion of water resources. Our country does not belong to these zones
Igor NAGAEV. Not yet, thank God.
Although there is very little snow this year in the European part of Russia. But the main areas of risk are Africa and the Middle East?
Igor NAGAEV. The greatest risks are in the basins of the Nile, Tigris, Euphrates, Yarmuk (a river in Jordan), Jordan, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mekong and Irtysh. These are conflict zones.
Irtysh unexpectedly sounded on this list
Igor NAGAEV. Then let's start with China. Large rivers such as the Indus, Brahmaputra and Mekong originate on its territory. Mekong in Chinese is Lancangjiang. This river ranks 11th in the world in length. In addition to China, it flows through the territories of Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. The Chinese built dams on it. They provide electricity, but the Chinese want to build more. Which is strongly opposed by the rest of the downstream countries, as the water level will fall.
And these countries live on rice, which requires a lot of water
Igor NAGAEV. Sure! The rainy season is not so long, so water is urgently needed for the rest of the time. The conflict will be there sooner or later unambiguously. Vietnam and China have historically complicated relations and have already had wars. Once upon a time, China ruled over Vietnam. Apparently, from old memory, I wanted to return everything to square one, and in 1979 the Chinese invaded the northern part of Vietnam, but having lost a couple of divisions, which apparently “evaporated” in the jungle, they ended the war and returned to their borders.
Next, let's look at the Indus River. She is the cause of the problems between India and Pakistan. Part of the armed clashes between these countries is precisely for the right to use the river and its tributaries. International authorities intervened, through the UN they tried to influence the parties to the conflict - there were a lot of negotiators. Well, there is no water at all - what can you do here!
If, in the case of the Mekong, China's hydropower industry faced the agricultural needs of other countries, Pakistan and India have a different, more acute situation - the lack of drinking water
Igor NAGAEV. Yes of course. Now let's look at the situation with the Brahmaputra and Ganges rivers. This is a big problem for India-Bangladesh relations. The sources of these rivers, again, in one case are on the territory of China, in another - very close to it. The problem of regulating water relations with neighbors there is aggravated, since in the north of India, as I noted, underground sources are being depleted.
By 2030, according to the assumptions of some experts, India will have to buy rice. In the meantime, she exports it.
What about Egypt? Apparently, the construction of the Aswan Dam also changed the situation with water. Has Egyptian farming area shrunk?
Igor NAGAEV. The main agricultural province of Egypt has always been the governorate of El Fayyoum. It is located south of the Nile Delta. The quality of the land is fantastic! There, by the way, there is a nature reserve in which there are two slightly saline lakes at different heights, and between them there is a waterfall of crazy strength and beauty. But this is all slightly salted water, and there was not enough fresh water there either already in the 20th century. Therefore, Aswan was built. Thanks to the dam and hydroelectric power plant built by the Soviet Union, Egypt received electricity, a huge reservoir and a new agricultural province of Aswan. Now she is the second granary of Egypt.
It turns out that this construction helped agriculture?
Igor NAGAEV. In Egypt, yes. Moreover, the Egyptians plan to make a new canal on the border of Sudan and Egypt, about sixty kilometers. It will provide an opportunity to cultivate new lands. However, everything rests on the innovation of Ethiopia, which built its own dam on the right tributary of the Nile, the Blue Nile, and a huge one. It is called Hide (Rebirth) and will soon be operational.
The Nile flows through the territory of seven countries. But the most important water resources feeding the river are, of course, in Ethiopia. Therefore, when voices came from there about the construction of the dam, the presidents of Egypt, one after another, began to threaten that Egyptian bombers would fly over Sudan and bomb the facility under construction. Because the water level will definitely fall and, accordingly, agriculture will be severely affected in the downstream countries. Electricity generation will decrease too.
I must say that recently the countries agreed on how Ethiopia will fill this reservoir, at what speed. So that there are no situations when the "damper" is closed, and everything downstream will dry out. We agreed that the reservoir will be filled within 10 years. However, the Ethiopians did not calm down - they want to push through the three-year term.
Consequently, serious friction is not excluded in the future
Igor NAGAEV. But that is not all. I closely follow the activities of the current President of Egypt, Abdul-Fattah Al-Sisi. This is a very smart, competent and responsible person from the military. He quickly realized that he urgently needed to compensate for the loss of electricity. And he took care of designing a tidal-type power plant. It will be located at the port of Ismailia, near the entrance to the Suez Canal. Also Egypt has planned the construction of a nuclear power plant. According to my information, the relevant documents have already been signed, and Russia is going to build it. On credit. That's the right decision. However, this will not solve the problem with the lack of water itself.
Although, of course, Egypt has a better situation in this respect than Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other countries of the Persian Gulf, where water is desalinated for technical purposes, and the rest is brought in by tankers. Desalination is also not an option, because, as Canadian experts say, after desalination, one liter of potable water produces 1.5 liters of "brine" with chlorine, magnesium and a bunch of other nasty things. Where to put it?
It will kill the earth. And if you dump this concentrated salt into the sea, then there will be no fishing around, nothing - a dead zone
Igor NAGAEV. Yes, big problems because of this. And nowhere to go. By the way, as British economists say, every third barrel of oil that is produced in Saudi Arabia is burned by this state for its own purposes. It is also used to supply power to desalination plants. So calculate the cost: one and a half liters of "brine", a liter of the resulting water and the energy burned.
Even Mendeleev said at the beginning of the 20th century that "burning oil is like stoking a stove with banknotes." Oil is still not used at the proper percentage
By the way, I heard about Gaddafi's projects to build colossal desalination plants that would work not only for Libya, but for the whole of Africa. Did he manage to bring something to the end?
Igor NAGAEV. Muammar Gaddafi was not a stupid person. When he found out (and this became known in the late 50s - early 60s) that there is water on the territory of Libya and some of the neighboring states at great depths, he undertook appropriate research. It turned out that at a depth of more than 1000 meters, there is a giant freshwater lake. The thickness of this water "stratum" (Nubian aquifer) is 200-400 meters. Decent amount of water.
Gaddafi decided to give it to drink and his state, and some neighbors. For this, in 1984, he ordered the construction of an entire plant in South Korea, which was to produce large-diameter pipes. Libya began to do all the necessary infrastructure projects, to develop engineering solutions. Two-thirds of the project of the Great Man-Made River was completed.
But then, as everyone knows, bombers and fighters arrived. They primarily fired at the infrastructure of this project under the pretext that tanks were hiding in huge reinforced concrete pipe shelters. Yes, they could hide, if you imagine the size of these structures. So what?
As a result, the question of using these objects has been postponed to this day. In an hour, a teaspoon of something oozes out, but there can be no talk of any gardening. It seems that those who bombed wanted to leave these underground storage facilities as a stash.
Reserve just in case …
Igor NAGAEV. One of the options is that when the climate changes noticeably, some will move somewhere. In the meantime, traders of bottled water have astronomical profits in the region. Percentage more than oil!
Our Central Asia (now geographers and political scientists prefer to call it Central for far-fetched reasons) is also at risk
Igor NAGAEV. There have always been conflicts over water between Kyrgyz, Uzbeks and Tajiks. But within the Soviet Union they somehow smoothed out. Now new ones are outlined. For example, the built system of reservoirs and power plants on the Vakhsh River allows Tajikistan to receive a lot of electricity, but not its neighbors. And the Kirghiz have a large reservoir, of which they obviously do not need water in such quantities. However, in winter they need to warm their houses, and they have to turn on the full power of the turbine in the reservoir dam. And, consequently, to dump water that goes to the Uzbeks and Tajiks. But they don't need water in winter. They need it in the summer, when the Kyrgyz have it in abundance, but they do not give it away. Vicious circle.
In Tajikistan, after the Nurek and Sangtuda hydroelectric power plants have already been commissioned, the Rogun hydroelectric power plant is being built, and serious questions arise in this regard, since the Central Asian republics have a large population, but little water.
There are desert lands there, but there are also fertile lands. However, we remember how cotton growing destroyed the waters of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya: all the water went to cotton, and the Aral Sea fed by these rivers was gone. There is also the phenomenon of the Fergana Valley, where the land is very fertile, but stabbing occurs regularly due to mutual national intolerance.
Overpopulation is taking its toll
Igor NAGAEV. Yes. In addition, the conflict between Kazakhstan and China is maturing. God forbid, of course!
Because on the territory of the Chinese Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region - where it borders with Kazakhstan, the Irtysh and Ili rivers originate. Irtysh, in fact, in its length even exceeds the length of the Ob River, into which it flows. Outflowing from Chinese territory, it feeds Kazakhstan (Lake Zaisan, the cities of Ust-Kamenogorsk, Semipalatinsk, Pavlodar), then flows into Russia. The tributary of the Irtysh, Ishim, feeds the capital of Kazakhstan, Nur-Sultan.
And the Chinese set out to turn part of the above water towards themselves! Since the Chinese Uighurs have poor land, water is scarce. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Prefecture is a huge so-called depressed region, and these people need to come up with a job - that's what China decided. The matter is complicated by the fact that the Uighurs (descendants of the Dzungars, Tokhars and other Turkic peoples who converted to Islam) cannot stand the Chinese, although they live on their territory. You can calm them down, as they think in China, by participating in large projects.
Just imagine, the Ili river flows, starting in China, it gives life to the huge Kazakh lake Balkhash. 80% of it is her water. There will be no Ili - Lake Balkhash will have to say goodbye. The river also passes not far from Alma-Ata.
And Kazakhstan, in general, is a very interesting republic. This is mainly a huge steppe. Approximately 80% of the country's territory suffers from lack of water.
Now imagine the consequences of the Chinese idea. Kazakhstan is already at negotiations with the Chinese asking to coordinate these works with it or to conduct them on a smaller scale. But, I suppose, the Chinese do not care much about their wishes.
Most likely, Kazakhstan will have new big problems in a few years. I do not exclude that due to these problems Kazakhstan will be forced to join Russia. Otherwise it will not survive.
Immediately I remember the Soviet project of turning the northern rivers, and Luzhkov's ideas about the construction of a water pipeline to Central Asia
Igor NAGAEV. Experts pronounced their verdict long ago: if you turn the Ob to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, then there will be no river - only swamps. All fauna and flora will die on the adjacent Russian territory. And to the same Uzbekistan will come one swamp slurry, not a river. There is no point in doing this!
Let us recall that Mao Zedong in 1961 set the task of feeding and watering the north of China. Then some work began, but they are still not completed due to the enormous complexity. I personally pray that these works will never be completed. For only until then can we be calm about our borders with China in this part, remote from the Far East …
So far, the Chinese army does not have a rear base there, thank God. But no, precisely because there is no water - there are, accordingly, no military bases, airfields, storage of fuel and shells. Therefore, the longer the Chinese will transfer water to the north of the country, the better. And the fewer strange initiators from our State Duma will offer to transfer water from Lake Baikal through Altai to China (!) - the fewer such strange people there are in our country in general, the better we all will live! We don't need a Chinese army with rear bases near our borders! Let it be somewhere, far away …
Desirable in the Pacific Ocean
Igor NAGAEV. Yes. Because in any hot scenario, everything will be determined by the range of tanks, bombers, fighters, missiles and so on.
If you try to look ahead for three or four hundred years, taking into account, of course, that there will still be life and the development of civilization, then due to the reduction in cultivated areas in Egypt, India, Pakistan, China, it is quite possible to imagine that Russia will become the largest agricultural power the world
Igor NAGAEV. There were periods when the most favorable climate for agriculture was developing on the territory of Russia and Europe. Then the Arabs and other southern peoples, angry and hungry, went to fight against us and Europe. And when the climatic situation changed to the opposite, we and Europe went to fight them.
That is, if it gets a little warmer, as we are promised somewhere, everyone will be trampled to us from the south?
Igor NAGAEV. Definitely, this is already clear. Ahead, alas, the expansion of military conflicts over oil and over water! And if the issue with China and the rivers flowing from there is being resolved gradually, then soon, I suppose, we may see a war over the fields of northern Iraq, northern Syria and because of the sources of the Tigris and Euphrates in Turkey. This non-cooling region can flare up with renewed vigor.
The fact is that the sources of the Tigris and Euphrates are located in Turkey. And already in the 1980s, this country began to "equip" the Euphrates "for itself." In 1990, in Syria, people sat for a whole month without water at all, because the Ataturk reservoir was being filled. Now the Turks are taken for the "arrangement" of the Tigris River, which will lead to a decrease in the cultivated areas in Iraq and Syria. And if Iraq does not have any normal army, then Syria had a serious army until 2011. And the Turks did everything that they did then with caution, because the army of their southern neighbor was a serious argument for them.
Therefore, when, at last, the extremist-militants are dealt with, the time will probably come to solve the main question: where, to whom and how to take and give water. And since the oil issue is still mixed there, it can flare up over oil and water at the same time.
Nearby is the notorious Golan Heights. There is also a problem with water supply, but this time between Syria and Israel
Igor NAGAEV. Israel solved it with the 1967 Six Day War. The Israelis, seeing that the Syrians were going to build a large dam on the Yarmouk, a tributary of the Jordan, bombed it. As a result of the Six Day War, the Golan Heights and the western bank of the Jordan River went to Israel. The State of Israel has nourished itself with water. It now controls the wells, the river, and the Golan Heights, which are very rich in groundwater. Not ground, which extends up to fifty meters deep, namely underground. There is also a reservoir. In a word, Israel has solved the problem. But only temporarily! Because the water ends up in these underground springs …
As the people of Israel told me, in some wells and wells the water is getting saltier. Thus, there will be no resources for Israel if it does not cut off a piece of the Euphrates with the Syrian land!
You spoke about the reduction of arable land, and I suddenly remembered a couple of numbers … If thirty years ago there were 4,000 square meters of conventional arable land per person in the world, now it is 2700. And not because a lot of people were born, but because the water has gone … Or it is salty, salting the fields. And these fields, naturally, are thrown.
Death to soil from such water
Igor NAGAEV. There is such a thing in Egypt. And in Ethiopia.
If we again hit on futurology … Is it not possible in the future to “catch” icebergs in the northern seas and transport them to areas of water shortage? Or is it absurd?
Igor NAGAEV. So far, no one has ever performed such feats. It's even hard for me to imagine how it might look in practice. And most importantly, how much will a liter of such water cost? We still remember pictures from "Technology of Youth" in 1982, when such subjects were drawn. It's 2020, and where are all those icebergs in tow?
In any case, from the picture you have outlined, the conclusion suggests itself about the need for effective, fair international regulatory systems
Igor NAGAEV. These are the correct thoughts of good people thinking good things, but this is unlikely. Human greed is such that it will not allow this to happen. As I already said, now on the sale of bottled water, in percentage terms, they earn more than on oil. Will people who earn such profits allow crystal water to flow from each tap ?! Of course not.
I had one client who was engaged in bottling water from one of the wells in the suburbs. It turns out that all this water under different names is almost no different from each other, because everything extracted from the wells passes through filters. And these industrial filters are mass-produced mainly by only two companies in the whole world! Therefore, what's the difference what the water is called, because the filters are the same everywhere? And there are much more scandals around dirty bottled water poured without a filter than around tap water. All over the world it is so.
As for groundwater in general, there are some unpleasant nuances. For example, the city of Mexico City extracted a lot of such water from the ground for its needs. As a result, multiple subsidence of the soil by several meters was recorded. Mexico City is slowly but surely going down. Because they drank some water.
Instead of nightmarish environmental manipulations based on unconfirmed data, it would not hurt to engage in a special culture of water consumption, to form ideas related to the value and significance of water. Yes, in Russia, fresh water is available in large quantities, but judging by the plastic bottles that roll along the banks of rivers and lakes, judging by the clogged springs, they are dismissive of it. And this is one of the key values on Earth
Igor NAGAEV. Definitely!
Authors: Andrey Fefelov, Igor Nagaev