In the middle of the 20th century, the whole world lived in fear of nuclear war, and many countries were seriously preparing for the apocalypse. Time passed, the geopolitical situation changed, and everyone relaxed. But isn't it too early? "Popular Mechanics" decided to figure out who today can use weapons of mass destruction based on the principles of decay or synthesis of radioactive materials, as well as how many people will suffer as a result.
Russia is testing the latest atomic-powered weapons with an unknown warhead. In the United States, the radical-minded president proposes to attack hurricanes with nuclear bombs. But just like the other "senior" countries of the "club" - Great Britain and France - these two powers will never use any of their hundreds of warheads. Firstly, it is connected with the doctrine of a guaranteed retaliatory strike in the event of an attack on another country possessing nuclear weapons. Secondly, any strike against other states or even new tests of detailed armaments will cause dire economic and political consequences for the aggressor. However, over the past thirty years, several other contributors have emerged, officially or presumably with atomic or hydrogen bombs in their arsenal. Many of them may well suddenly launch a missile at their sworn enemy.
India and Pakistan
Let's start with the least likely conflict. Both countries have been at war for more than seventy years, and during this time they managed to acquire an impressive nuclear arsenal. Each side of the conflict is armed with not only irreconcilable hatred of the enemy, but also hydrogen warheads or nuclear boosted ones. The latter are not a full-fledged thermonuclear bomb, but use a fusion reaction that is insignificant in terms of energy release to increase the efficiency of the main fission reaction.
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Target: Islamabad
| Power | 60 kilotons |
| Undermining height | 710 meters ("clean" explosion) |
| Victims | > 100 thousand |
| Badly injured | > 300 thousand |
| Total affected | 1 million |
| Zone of catastrophic destruction (red border) | Within a radius of 1.1 km from the epicenter (3.8 sq. Km), the pressure in the shock front will exceed 20 psi (0.14 MPa) - only special bunkers and reinforced concrete buildings will withstand |
| The area of direct exposure at the time of the explosion | 500 Rem within a radius of 1.5 kilometers from the epicenter (7.3 sq. Km - those who escape heat radiation and a shock wave in this area will still die with a 90% probability within a week) |
| Heavy Destruction Zone (Bold gray border) | Within a radius of 2.5 km from the epicenter (19.1 sq. Km), the pressure in the shock front will exceed 5 psi (0.03 MPa) - most residential buildings will be destroyed or seriously damaged |
| Heat radiation affected area (yellow circle) | Within a radius of 3.9 km from the epicenter (48 sq. Km), second or third degree burns will occur on parts of the body uncovered by clothing |
| Zone of light destruction (outer gray circle) | Within a radius of 6.6 kilometers from the epicenter (136 sq. Km), the pressure of the shock front will exceed 1 psi (0.007 MPa) - in most buildings it will break glass |
As delivery vehicles, India and Pakistan have missiles of various ranges, as well as aircraft capable of penetrating deep into enemy territory. The power of the ammunition is unknown, however, judging by open data, devices with a capacity of 100 to 60,000 tons of TNT were tested. The Indian explosions were the most variable in destructive power, which suggests the presence of tactical nuclear missiles. Such weapons can be used for lightning-fast breakthrough of enemy defenses or for solving problems of supporting their forces in the immediate vicinity of the front line.
Target: New Delhi
Dense development exacerbates population losses, but its effect cannot be calculated.
| Power | 45 kilotons |
| Undermining height | 660 meters ("clean" explosion) |
| Victims | 370 thousand |
| Badly injured | 920 thousand |
| Total affected | 2.9 million |
| Zone of catastrophic destruction (red border) | Within a radius of 1 km from the epicenter (3.1 sq. Km), the pressure in the shock front will exceed 20 psi (0.14 MPa) - only special bunkers and fortified reinforced concrete buildings will withstand |
| The area of direct exposure at the time of the explosion | 500 Rem within a radius of 1.5 kilometers from the epicenter (7.3 sq. Km - those who escape heat radiation and a shock wave in this area will still die with a 90% probability within a week) |
| Heavy Destruction Zone (Bold gray border) | Within a radius of 2.2 km from the epicenter (15.8 sq. Km), the pressure in the shock front will exceed 5 psi (0.03 MPa) - most residential buildings will be destroyed or seriously damaged |
| Heat radiation affected area (yellow circle) | Within a radius of 3.4 km from the epicenter (37.2 sq. Km), second or third degree burns will occur on parts of the body uncovered by clothing |
| Zone of light destruction (outer gray circle) | Within a radius of 6 kilometers from the epicenter (112 sq. Km), the pressure of the shock front will exceed 1 psi (0.007 MPa) - in most buildings it will break glass |
Israel and Iran
Two more dangerous players in the Asian geopolitical arena. Israel acquired the technology for producing atomic weapons in the 1960s. The process was difficult and not always approved by the international community, but in the end, the IAEA has no doubt that this country has at least two hundred ready-to-use nuclear warheads. There is no confirmation of this, and the Israeli side in every possible way denies their presence, so the power of the charges remains in question, but we will take it as a completely realistic 25 kilotons. We will also consider hypothetical nuclear bombs or warheads of Iran to be similar in power. Both sides are armed with ballistic missiles of the necessary range to defeat each other.
Target: Tehran
Despite the severe damage, most of the city will remain habitable.
| Power | 25 kilotons |
| Undermining height | 530 meters ("clean" explosion) |
| Victims | 297 thousand |
| Badly injured | 730 thousand |
| Total affected | 2.3 million |
| Zone of catastrophic destruction (red border) | Within a radius of 800 meters from the epicenter (2.1 sq. Km), the pressure in the shock front will exceed 20 psi (0.14 MPa) - only special bunkers and fortified reinforced concrete buildings will withstand |
| The area of direct exposure at the time of the explosion | 500 Rem within a radius of 1.4 kilometers from the epicenter (5.8 sq. Km - those who escape heat radiation and a shock wave in this area will still die with a 90% probability within a week) |
| Heavy Destruction Zone (Bold gray border) | Within a radius of 1.8 km from the epicenter (10.6 sq. Km), the pressure in the shock front will exceed 5 psi (0.03 MPa) - most residential buildings will be destroyed or seriously damaged |
| Heat radiation affected area (yellow circle) | Within a radius of 2.6 km from the epicenter (22.1 sq. Km), second or third degree burns will occur on parts of the body uncovered by clothing |
| Zone of light destruction (outer gray circle) | Within a radius of 4.9 kilometers from the epicenter (75.9 sq. Km), the pressure of the shock front will exceed 1 psi (0.007 MPa) - in most buildings it will break glass |
Iran has never conducted a confirmed nuclear test, but it is reliably known that this country has the infrastructure necessary for the production of such weapons. Over the past few years, test launches of new missiles have been made with varying success, which have a dual purpose - they can be both ballistic warhead delivery vehicles and carriers of satellites into low orbit. One way or another, Iran is one of the centers of military and political tension in the entire Middle East region. Over the past 20 years, the already difficult relationship between the two countries has become openly hostile. Until now, there have been no open clashes, but each of the sides, openly or secretly, is conducting subversive activities by the hands of radical armed groups in the immediate vicinity of the enemy's territories.
Target: Tel Aviv
| Power | 25 kilotons |
| Undermining height | 530 meters ("clean" explosion) |
| Victims | 140 thousand |
| Badly injured | 216 thousand |
| Total affected | 700 thousand |
| Zone of catastrophic destruction (red border) | Within a radius of 800 meters from the epicenter (2.1 sq. Km), the pressure in the shock front will exceed 20 psi (0.14 MPa) - only special bunkers and fortified reinforced concrete buildings will withstand |
| The area of direct exposure at the time of the explosion | 500 Rem within a radius of 1.4 kilometers from the epicenter (5.8 sq. Km - those who escape heat radiation and a shock wave in this area will still die with a 90% probability within a week) |
| Heavy Destruction Zone (Bold gray border) | Within a radius of 1.8 km from the epicenter (10.6 sq. Km), the pressure in the shock front will exceed 5 psi (0.03 MPa) - most residential buildings will be destroyed or seriously damaged |
| Heat radiation affected area (yellow circle) | Within a radius of 2.6 km from the epicenter (22.1 sq. Km), second or third degree burns will occur on parts of the body uncovered by clothing |
| Zone of light destruction (outer gray circle) | Within a radius of 4.9 kilometers from the epicenter (75.9 sq. Km), the pressure of the shock front will exceed 1 psi (0.007 MPa) - in most buildings it will break glass |
North Korea (DPRK) against all
A country that scares the whole world as an example of totalitarianism with an insane dictator at its head. Leaving aside the reliability of these statements, it is important for us that at the beginning of the 21st century, the DPRK conducted at least six nuclear weapons tests and announced the presence of hydrogen warheads in its arsenal. According to experts from Russia, Great Britain, the United States and France, the power of test explosions varied from 500 tons to 100 kt in TNT equivalent.
Target: Tokyo
Nobody knows what will happen as a result of an explosion over such a dense building.
| Power | 100 kilotons |
| Undermining height | 840 meters ("clean" explosion) |
| Victims | > 200 thousand |
| Badly injured | > 800 thousand |
| Total affected | 2.7 million |
| Zone of catastrophic destruction (red border) | Within a radius of 1.3 km from the epicenter (5.3 sq. Km), the pressure in the shock front will exceed 20 psi (0.14 MPa) - only special bunkers and reinforced concrete buildings will withstand |
| The area of direct exposure at the time of the explosion | 500 Rem within a radius of 1.6 kilometers from the epicenter (8.2 sq. Km - those who escape from heat radiation and a shock wave in this area will still die with a 90% probability within a week) |
| Heavy Destruction Zone (Bold gray border) | Within a radius of 2.9 km from the epicenter (26.8 sq. Km), the pressure in the shock front will exceed 5 psi (0.03 MPa) - most residential buildings will be destroyed or seriously damaged |
| Heat radiation affected area (yellow circle) | Within a radius of 4.9 km from the epicenter (75.2 sq. Km), second or third degree burns will occur on parts of the body uncovered by clothing |
| Zone of light destruction (outer gray circle) | Within a radius of 7.8 kilometers from the epicenter (191 sq. Km), the pressure of the shock front will exceed 1 psi (0.007 MPa) - in most buildings it will break glass |
Who can North Korea attack suddenly? For example, its southern neighbor, Japan, or even trying to get the US military bases in the Pacific Ocean, the latter is unlikely, because the DPRK's main problem is the means of delivering warheads. The missiles tested show very controversial accuracy and reliability, so perhaps there is nothing to worry about for now. However, the solid power of the charges makes all neighbors in the region nervous and builds up missile defense assets.
Target: Seoul
Skyscrapers have never been exploded with an atomic bomb, so the effect is unpredictable. Perhaps the number of victims will be much higher.
| Power | 100 kilotons |
| Undermining height | 840 meters ("clean" explosion) |
| Victims | > 300 thousand |
| Badly injured | > 1 million |
| Total affected | > 3 million |
| Zone of catastrophic destruction (red border) | Within a radius of 1.3 km from the epicenter (5.3 sq. Km), the pressure in the shock front will exceed 20 psi (0.14 MPa) - only special bunkers and reinforced concrete buildings will withstand |
| The area of direct exposure at the time of the explosion | 500 Rem within a radius of 1.6 kilometers from the epicenter (8.2 sq. Km - those who escape from heat radiation and a shock wave in this area will still die with a 90% probability within a week) |
| Heavy Destruction Zone (Bold gray border) | Within a radius of 2.9 km from the epicenter (26.8 sq. Km), the pressure in the shock front will exceed 5 psi (0.03 MPa) - most residential buildings will be destroyed or seriously damaged |
| Heat radiation affected area (yellow circle) | Within a radius of 4.9 km from the epicenter (75.2 sq. Km), second or third degree burns will occur on parts of the body uncovered by clothing |
| Zone of light destruction (outer gray circle) | Within a radius of 7.8 kilometers from the epicenter (191 sq. Km), the pressure of the shock front will exceed 1 psi (0.007 MPa) - in most buildings it will break glass |
We all will die?
No, luckily these scenarios are absolutely impossible. Nuclear weapons are a deterrent and have only been used in combat twice in 1945. All over the world, even among the most marginalized states, there is a consensus that the use of atomic or hydrogen bombs will lead to too unpredictable and tragic consequences up to a local apocalypse.
Vasily Parfenov