Futurologist Eric Drexler: "All My Predictions 10 Years Ago Have Come True" - Alternative View

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Futurologist Eric Drexler: "All My Predictions 10 Years Ago Have Come True" - Alternative View
Futurologist Eric Drexler: "All My Predictions 10 Years Ago Have Come True" - Alternative View

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A well-known scientist made a speech at the IV International Forum on Nanotechnology, which is being held at the Expocentre Fairgrounds

An American scientist and popularizer of science with a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology for his unique research in the field of molecular nanotechnology, Eric Drexler became known all over the world after the publication of his famous book "Creation Machines: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology" (1986).

In it, he proposed the idea of a "nano-assembler" - a tiny construction robot. In the same book, Drexler described what such machines are capable of. For example, they can replace the surgeon by “repairing” the patient from the inside. Or cope with an environmental disaster by absorbing harmful chemicals from the air and water. And Drexler's "nano-assemblers" can destroy humanity. For this scenario, the futurist coined a new term - "gray goo". All matter on Earth will turn into it, in the event that nano-robots get out of control and begin to build endless copies of themselves.

Eric Drexler has been called the "godfather" of nanotechnology. He is also the author of the very term "nanotechnology". In order to imagine what nanotechnologists are working with, one has to mentally divide an ordinary hair along into forty thousand parts, and then each part will be equal to one nanometer or one billionth of a meter. The move from micro to nano has enabled scientists to manipulate atoms. And since any material object is just a cluster of atoms in space, then by shuffling them like cards, you can collect any object. Imagine an appliance the size of a microwave oven, feeding a portion of raw materials on one side, and on the other, you get what you ordered, from a paper clip to a computer. Moreover, microscopic mechanisms capable of self-copying will appear. For example, if you wanted a car,then it is only necessary to put the design parameters into this nanomechanism, as it immediately begins to copy itself until it reaches the desired size of the machine, which will grow before your eyes, like an embryo in the uterus in accelerated shooting.

A quarter of a century has passed and now not only fantasy fans speak about nanotechnology. The world's leading states are racing to adopt national nanotechnology programs, allocate astronomical sums for research and development in this area.

And around the name of Eric Drexler, spears continue to break. His opponents, including Nobel laureates, argue that his "assemblers" are a myth, and the scientific achievements of the professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology are not worth attention. Proponents, on the contrary, argue that its contribution to scientific and technological progress, and indeed the development of human civilization, is ridiculous to count by the number of publications, successful laboratory experiments. In the end, Drexler earned a mention in the latest book by writer and philosopher Timothy Leary, and that costs a lot.

Meanwhile, Drexler, it seems, is himself ready to abandon the theory of "gray goo", but is convinced that no matter how painful the transition to a new technological order, the future of mankind is connected with nanotechnology.

Be that as it may, Eric Drexler is considered by many to be one of the main visionaries of our time, and hardly anyone today will dispute his main idea: there are technologies that have had a huge impact on the development of mankind and changed the course of history. The Foresight Institute, founded by Eric Drexler, is studying these technologies, which are capable of radically changing relations in society, influencing the global economy and the development of productive resources for a fairly short (from the point of view of history) time. The task of the institute is to help society to perceive new technologies, to take into account the possible impact of technological revolutions on the economy and society.

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Nanosystems - Drexler's second well-known book, in which he examines molecular manufacturing in detail from the point of view of physics, chemistry and quantum mechanics - won the Association of American Publishers Award for Best Computer Book of 2002.

In his works, Eric Drexler estimated the approximate parameters of some mechanical nanodevices, or rather, the possible parameters of mechanical devices that they would have if their dimensions approached the molecular level. For example, according to his findings, molecular assembly of an object weighing 1 kilogram becomes possible in just 104 seconds and mechanosynthesis with a productivity of approximately 106 operations per second per device.

At the IV International Forum on Nanotechnology, which is taking place at the Expocentre Fairgrounds, Dexler was asked the question: "Did all his predictions 10 years ago come true?" “Everything that I predicted has come to pass,” the scientist assured.

QUOTES

From the book “Creation Machine. The Coming Era of Nanotechnology”.

By Eric Drexler

Nanotechnology and everyday life

The advancement of technology can end or continue life, but it can also change its quality. Products based on nanotechnology will permeate the daily lives of people who want to use them. Some of the consequences will be trivial; others may be deep.

Some products will have actions as common as simplifying household chores (and as significant as reducing the causes of domestic fights). It doesn't have to be tricky, for example, to make everything from dishes to carpets self-cleaning and keep the air at home constantly fresh. For properly designed nanomachines, dirt is food. Other systems based on nanotechnology could produce fresh food - real meat, grains, vegetables, etc. - right at home and all year round. This food will come from cells that grow in specific structures in plants and animals; cells can be persuaded to grow along these very structures anywhere. Home food growers will allow people to eat what they normally eat without killing anyone. Animal rights movement (forerunners of the movement to protect all conscious,sentient beings?) will increase accordingly.

Nanotechnology will make possible high-resolution screens that produce different images for each eye; the result will be three-dimensional television, so realistic that the screen appears to be a window into another world. Screens of this sort could form part of the suit's helmets, much like the space suits described in Chapter 6. The suit itself, instead of being reprogrammed to transmit forces and textures from outside, could instead apply forces and textures to the skin. defined by a complex interactive program. A suit and helmet combination of this kind could simulate less of what we see and feel in any environment, be it real or imagined. Nanotechnology will make possible moving arts and fantasy worlds much more exciting than any book, game or film. Advanced technology will enable a world of products that make modern conveniences seem inconvenient and dangerous. Why shouldn't objects be light, flexible, durable and adaptable to our desires? Why can't the walls look whatever we want and only transmit the sounds we want to hear? And why should buildings and cars not be wrecked at all and roasted their inhabitants? For those who want to, the surroundings of everyday life may resemble some of the wildest descriptions found in science fiction.how do we want and only transmit the sounds we want to hear? And why should buildings and cars not be wrecked at all and roasted their inhabitants? For those who want to, the surroundings of everyday life may resemble some of the wildest descriptions found in science fiction.how do we want and only transmit the sounds we want to hear? And why should buildings and cars not be wrecked at all and roasted their inhabitants? For those who want to, the surroundings of everyday life may resemble some of the wildest descriptions found in science fiction.

Enough room to dream

This, therefore, is the size of the future prospects. Although the limits of growth will remain, we will be able to use solar energy trillions of times more than all the energy that humans currently use. From the sources of the solar system, we will be able to create lands with an area of millions of Earth's areas. With assemblers, automatic engineering and space resources, we will quickly gain wealth in quantity and quality, more than anything that we could only dream of in the past. The finite limits of lifespan will remain, but cell repair technology will make perfect health and indefinitely long life possible for everyone. This progress will bring new machines of destruction, but it will also make possible active shields and weapons control systems that can stabilize the world.

In short, we have a chance for a future with enough room for many worlds and many choices, and enough time to explore. Tamed technology can expand our limits by forcing the form of technology to limit the form of humanity less. In an open future of wealth, space, and diversity, groups will be free to shape almost any society they want, free to destroy or create a magnificent example of the world. Unless your dreams require you to own everyone else, chances are that other people will be willing to share them with you. If so, then you and these other people may decide to band together to form a new world. If a promising start fails, solves too many problems or too few, you will be able to try again. Our problem today is not to plan or build utopias, but to look for opportunities to try."

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