Since 1976, the UN Committee has considered the problems of prohibiting weapons of mass destruction. The discussion revolved around the definition of what should be attributed to new types of weapons of mass destruction, the development and production of which should be prohibited. The main criterion taken as the basis for the definition of weapons of mass destruction was the destructive ability of weapons.
Later, within the framework of the UN, the Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Other Hostile Use of Means of Influencing the Natural Environment (1977) - artificial stimulation of earthquakes, melting of polar ice and climate change was concluded.
The definition of what exactly is a geophysical weapon still does not exist, it is based on the use of means that cause natural disasters. The purpose of geophysical weapons is the processes occurring in the solid, liquid and gaseous shells of the Earth.
Of particular interest are their state of unstable equilibrium, when a relatively small external push can cause catastrophic consequences and the impact on the enemy of huge destructive forces of nature ("trigger effect").
Like most weapons of mass destruction, geophysical weapons are based on dual-use technologies. This greatly complicates the problem of their identification, control over development and production, and makes it difficult to reach agreements on their prohibition. In addition, it is almost impossible to unambiguously determine whether this natural disaster was the result of the use of geophysical weapons or a natural result of natural processes.
The accuracy of the "sight" of geophysical weapons is low. And the necessary "shooting" can be carried out in their settlements or on the territory of other states - both friendly and not very friendly.
The devastating impact can occur in a few seconds or several decades. Weapons can "hook" the developers themselves or lead to completely unforeseen consequences. All this is a consequence of insufficient knowledge of the processes in the earth's interior, the dynamics of the atmosphere and the interaction of the most diverse phenomena in nature.
The combat mission of geophysical weapons is strategic and operational-tactical. The objects of destruction are manpower, equipment, engineering structures and the natural environment. The infrastructure of modern cities is more likely to contribute to large-scale destruction than to contain the elements.
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Conventionally, geophysical weapons are divided according to the type of the affected shells of the Earth:
- Tectonic (lithospheric, geological) - earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, shifts of lithospheric plates
- Atmospheric (meteorological, climatic) - temperature changes, hurricane winds, ozone layer destruction, fires
- Hydrospheric - tsunami, flooding of large areas, violation of the ice sheet, snow storms, mudflows, hail, floods, glaciers, fog
- Orientation - a provoked change in the position of the Earth in space, its speed of rotation
- Impact - the impact of an asteroid launched into the desired orbit. However, similar destruction can be caused by an artificial massive body launched into orbit.
It is obvious that the impact on one single earthly shell is impossible. The catastrophe in the case of the use of powerful geophysical weapons will be complex.
"Unexpected" Earthquakes
According to the analysis of a group of Soviet scientists, headed by N. I. Moiseev, conducted in the 80s, the effect of "nuclear winter" is also possible as a result of a non-nuclear war in the conditions of industrial countries with large chemical and nuclear industries.
Tectonic weapons are based on the use of the potential energy of the Earth and are one of the most destructive. In the second half of the 20th century, the nuclear powers (USA, USSR, Great Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan) carried out about 1600 underground nuclear explosions recorded by seismic stations around the world. All explosions and vibrations affect the seismicity of the territory, however, this is most noticeable after nuclear underground explosions. December 1968 is considered the date of birth of tectonic weapons. Then a nuclear test explosion in the state of Nevada (USA) caused a 5-point earthquake.
In 1970, an 8-point earthquake struck seismically calm Los Angeles, caused by tests at a test site 150 kilometers from the city. In the Soviet Union, in a number of cases, nuclear explosions were carried out in areas with increased seismicity (above 6 points on the MSK-64 scale), in particular in the area of Lake Baikal and the Amu Darya river valley. Among the most devastating consequences of nuclear tests are the two earthquakes in the village of Gazli (Uzbekistan) in 1976 and 1984.
The explosions at the test site in Semipalatinsk and the voids that arose during the development of gas under the village eventually led to a tragedy, which later repeated in Neftegorsk on Sakhalin.
In China in the city of Tangshan, a day after the nuclear explosion at the Lob Nor test site (July 28, 1976), 500 thousand people died as a result of tremors (according to other sources - 900 thousand).
June 23, 1992 - a nuclear explosion in Nevada, and on June 28 - two shocks of 6.5 and 7.4 in California The strongest earthquake occurred in October 1998 in Mexico, its strength reached 7.6 - less than a week after French nuclear test at the Mururoa ottol.
The 1991 earthquake in Georgia is associated with the massive bombing of Iraqi positions during Operation Desert Storm.
During the last months of 1999, there were two catastrophic earthquakes in Turkey and Greece. If, on a geophysical map of Southern Europe, we connect the centers of these disasters and extend them along the faults of the earth's crust to the northwest, then after a few hundred kilometers the arc of tectonic instability will capture Yugoslavia. But a few months before these earthquakes, NATO air missile strikes on Yugoslavia had brought down 22,000 bombs and more than 1,100 cruise missiles. The total mass of explosives used then (in terms of normal explosives) was more than 11,000 tons per week.
At the same time, a number of media outlets appeared assertions that tectonic shocks in southern Europe are the result of the transfer of excess seismic stress in the depths of the Yugoslav mountain platform, which accumulated there as a result of large-scale bombing.
From the end of October 2001 to the beginning of April 2002, about 40 earthquakes were registered in Afghanistan (9 of them had a magnitude higher than 5). Some of the earthquakes can be associated with the impact of heavy aircraft during the anti-terrorist operation of the US troops. These are all "unintentional" crimes.
The development of tectonic weapons directly in the United States and the USSR began almost simultaneously - in the mid-70s. There is practically no information about these projects in the open press. It is known only about the program "Mercury-18" (NIRN2M 08614PK) that existed in the Soviet Union - "a technique for remote impact on the earthquake source using weak seismic fields and transfer of explosion energy", and the "Volcano" program.
According to the Stockholm Peace Institute (SIPRI), the topic of tectonic weapons is highly classified, but is actively studied in the United States, China, Japan, Israel, Brazil and Azerbaijan. None of the states admitted that they own tectonic weapons, however, accusations of their use are louder in the media and in the international arena. And they are not always groundless:
The catastrophic Spitak earthquake, which claimed over 40 thousand lives and struck all aspects of the Armenian economy, occurred precisely at the height of the war in Nagorno-Karabakh. It was extremely beneficial for the leaders of Baku.
In September 1999, a seismic shock hit Taiwan, causing great destruction and loss of life. Due to the repeated aftershocks, life on the island was destabilized for some time. The European and Japanese press speculated that this kind of strike would be an ideal weapon for China, had it been able to use it not only as a combat weapon, but also simply to blackmail the Taiwanese government.
7 months after the collapse of the Baghdad regime, the southeastern Iranian city of Bam was destroyed by a series of seismic strikes. Bam is located on a tectonic fault, which is extremely unstable seismically. It is 1400 km away from Baghdad. And at the same distance - from Baku. Baku has been at enmity with Tehran for over 10 years, ever since Iran sided with Armenia in the Karabakh conflict. Without his intensive support and material and technical assistance, Armenia would be completely isolated, and its military formations would not be able to defeat the enemy, occupying a number of western regions of Azerbaijan. In recent years, this conflict has been added to the most serious territorial contradictions due to the division of oil fields on the southern shelf of the Caspian Sea. After a 6-point earthquake, which was followed by about a hundred weaker ones during the day,in Tbilisi on April 25, 2002, the leader of the Green Party of Georgia, Giorgi Gacheladze, accused Russia of initiating the earthquake with the help of the Esher Seismological Laboratory.
Methods and means of influence
The main requirement for tectonic weapons is to release the potential energy of the Earth, direct it to the enemy and cause maximum destruction.
For this you can apply:
- underground and underwater nuclear explosions or explosions of chemical explosives;
- explosions on the shelf or in coastal waters;
- seismic vibrators or vibrators in underground workings or wells filled with water;
- artificial change in the trajectories of falling asteroids.
A number of fundamental problems are associated with the creation of tectonic weapons. The main one is the need to initiate earthquakes in a given area, located at a certain distance and azimuth from the location, for example, of an underground explosion. Seismic waves propagate (especially with increasing distance) approximately symmetrically relative to the explosion site. In addition, one must not forget that underground explosions can also reduce seismic activity.
Another important problem is the estimation of the optimal time to achieve the result after using geophysical weapons. It can be minutes, hours, weeks or even years. Studies carried out at the test sites of Semipalatinsk, Novaya Zemlya, Nevada and others suggest that the impact of underground nuclear explosions manifests itself in the form of a short-term increase in seismicity at a distance of up to 2000 km from the test site, an increase in the frequency of earthquakes in the first 5-10 days after exposure, and then decreasing them to background values. Earthquakes of varying intensity are characterized by unequal responses to underground nuclear explosions. For the Pamir-Hindu Kush earthquakes (Central Tajikistan), the strongest initiating effect of explosions is observed for earthquakes with a magnitude of 3.5-4.5 and more.
Impact Time: "Catch the Wave"
It is possible to set the time and place of an artificially induced earthquake, to significantly increase its strength and accompanying effects, using the Earth's internal rhythm. In physical representation, the Earth is an elastic deformable body. It is in a state of unstable dynamic equilibrium. Moreover, all subsystems of the planet are nonlinear oscillatory. These oscillations are formed not only as a result of external influence (forced oscillations), but also arise and are stably maintained in the system itself (the effect of self-oscillations). All subsystems of the planet are open - they exchange energy and matter with the environment, which allows, with the help of external influences, to cause an increase in nonlinearity. The lithosphere is in a state of current (mobile) equilibrium, provided that some of the parameters remain unchanged. When the equilibrium is disturbed, regions of instability arise in the lithosphere, which enhance the nonlinear character of geodynamic systems. The earth participates simultaneously in various oscillatory movements, during which the tension inside the earth's crust changes and matter moves.
By "adjusting" to one of these vibrations, one can not only set the time and place of the destructive earthquake, but also significantly increase its strength. For convenience, the oscillatory modes of the Earth are divided according to their scale:
Planetary - oscillations are excited by both extraterrestrial energy sources and intraplanetary disturbances.
Lithospheric - fluctuations from shock-wave energy releases mainly in the lithosphere.
Crustal geostructural - fluctuations mainly in individual tectonic systems of the earth's crust
Near-surface (microseismic) - in the upper part of the earth's crust and on the surface.
Planetary oscillations have periods from tens of minutes to hours, the slowest oscillations capture the entire volume of the Earth. They are divided into two large classes: spheroidal (the displacement vector of material "points" has components both along the radius and in the direction of movement) and torsional, or toroidal (not associated with a change in the volume and shape of the Earth; material particles move only over spherical surfaces) …
The geodynamics of the mantle and the frequency of seismic activity, collisional crustal belts and the morphostructure of the relief, as well as climate fluctuations, are associated with planetary oscillations. There is still no exact estimate of the geological energy, but approximately the energy of gravity is 2.5x1032 J, rotation is 2.1x1029J and gravitational convection is 5.0x1028 J.
The Earth's rotation is a diurnal spheroidal oscillatory process, in which the moment of inertia and the motion of the centers of mass periodically change direction. The Earth's rotation mode is determined by the angular velocity and the change in the position of the axis of rotation. It is constantly changing under the influence of tides and electromagnetic influences in the solar system. Therefore, in the geospheres, and especially in the lithosphere, stresses arise and processes of different-scale mass transfer occur.
The rotating Earth is a self-oscillating system, its natural oscillations generate an "all-terrestrial" system of standing waves, each of which is a generator and a kind of tuning fork, ready for resonance. These vibrations cause “pure shear” stresses in the lithosphere and all-round compression (or extension). For the first time, the fact that such oscillations are excited by strong seismic events was discovered during the analysis of the Kamchatka earthquake of 1952 and confirmed by the analysis of seismograms of the Chilean earthquake of 1960. Thus, the appearance of additional oscillatory systems in the depths of the lithosphere is accompanied by interference and, when these oscillations coincide with one of the standing waves, the phenomenon of resonance.
The rotational motion of the Earth determines the intraterrestrial mass transfer in the depths of the geosphere and a change in the position of the axis of inertia of rotation. There is a correlation between disturbances in the pole's trajectory and strong seismic events. The planet's rotational regime is strongly influenced by the tides - oceanic and solid Earth. The strongest lunar tides, the magnitude of solar tides is 3 times less. Under the influence of the gravitational forces of the Moon, twice a day (after 12 hours 25 minutes), the Ocean level reaches its maximum. The average amplitude of the lunar tides of the water surface is about 1 m, and the surface of the solid Earth is 10 cm (maximum up to 35 cm). The amplitude of tidal fluctuations of the water surface reaches its maximum value at latitudes of about 50 ° (in the shallow waters of the Okhotsk, Bering and other Arctic seas, the tidal height reaches 10-15 m and more). The speed of traveling waves of lunar tides reaches 930 m / s at the equator, and up to 290 m / s at mid-latitudes.
Regular lunar tides due to long wavelengths are not felt by us, but over millions of years such fluctuations form systems of “vibration fatigue” cracks (regional systems of block cleavage cracks in large rock masses of the crust, etc.).
The power of the tidal influence of the moon reaches 1013 W. Due to a slight change in the polar compression of the Earth (1: 298.3), the polar and equatorial areas of the planet's surface periodically change. Correspondingly, the volumes of the crust change, in which the compressive or tensile stresses prevail, additional stresses arise in the crust and mantle, the centrifugal and gravity forces of the geospheres decrease or increase, and the mantle masses are redistributed.
Lithospheric fluctuations are a consequence of the interactions of lithospheric plates and volumetric destruction of the lithosphere. In a concentrated form, the oscillatory regimes of the lithosphere are presented in the global belts of seismically active margins of the Ocean (more than 75% of the released seismic energy of the Earth) and ridge zones of the mid-ocean ridges (about 5%). The annual "integral seismic energy" in the 20th century was about 1.5-25.0 x1024 erg. The reasons for the destruction of the lithosphere are of a global nature and are the process of adaptation of planetary matter to long-term force effects, such as oscillations of the Earth's axis of rotation, Coriolis accelerations and tidal waves in the solid shell of the Earth. Volumetric and surface seismic waves are emitted from the area of destruction of lithospheric plates.
The most interesting among them are the surface waves of Rayleigh (oscillations perpendicular to motion in the vertical plane) and Love ("horizontal" oscillations). Surface waves are characterized by a strong dispersion of velocities, their intensity sharply (exponentially) decreases with depth. But surface waves from strong earthquakes "run around" the Earth several times, respectively, repeatedly exciting oscillations of the medium. The total number of seismic events per year with a magnitude from 2 to 8 reaches 106, the total consumption of seismic energy is determined by the order of 1026 erg / year. But for mechanical destruction of rock masses, mineral transformations and thermal effects of friction in the focal zones, it is spent about 10 times more than for vibrations of the earth's surface. The energy of an earthquake with a magnitude of the order of 4 is 3.6x1017 J, the energy of an earthquake with M is about 8,6 reaches 3-5 x 1024 erg, the energy of a volcanic eruption is 1015-1017 J, the energy of nuclear and mining explosions is up to 2.4 x 1017 J. An example of a seismogenic "impact" and an oscillatory aftereffect is underground nuclear explosions in Nevada at the end of 1968. impact here reached 1 Mt (109 kg of explosives); on the surface around the projection of the explosion point (r = 450 m), there was an intense multiple mechanical deformation of the rock masses; displacements along previously known faults were established within a radius of more than 5.5 km; the oscillatory aftereffect of only an aftershock nature (10 thousand shocks with M = 1.3 - 4.2) lasted for several months. In the crater from a nuclear explosion, the initial shock pressure reaches 1000 Mbar, and the temperature behind the shock front is about 10x106 degrees. With such parameters, physical processes and chemical reactions proceed in nanoseconds (10-9s).
Crustal vibrations are associated with the activation of seismically active zones of the earth's crust in zones of volcanism, crustal rifts, deformation-metamorphic zones, etc. The main number of earthquakes is of a crustal nature with a source depth of up to 30 km, although the propagation of vibrations by the crust is not limited. The waves propagating in the volume of the crust penetrate deeper than its base, and laterally - for many tens, hundreds and even thousands of kilometers. The crustal oscillations are characterized by extreme nonstationarity. Thus, in the seismically active zone of the Baikal rift, the total energy of earthquakes changes up to two orders of magnitude: more than 2000 earthquakes are recorded on Baikal during the year (5-6 events per day), incl. strong events are recorded with a frequency: 7 points in 1-2 years, 8 - after 5, 9 - after 15 and 10 - after 50 years. A similar mode of active seismicity is confirmed by the frequency of shallow earthquakes in the rift valleys of the mid-oceanic ridges (bottom seismographs record up to 50-60 "impacts" of small force per day). Even a small amplitude of an external action can cause a strain jump of the same order of magnitude as a large "peak" amplitude. This is due to the accumulation of energy in the crust, sufficient for an additional impulse to lead to the loss of stability of the block medium.so that the additional impulse can lead to the loss of stability of the block environment.so that the additional impulse can lead to the loss of stability of the block environment.
Microseismic (near-surface) vibrations of the upper crust with a frequency range from fractions to hundreds of Hz is an integral property of the upper crust. They arise after earthquakes and oceanic cyclones, from tsunamis or seiches in confined water bodies, from storm waves and falling meteorites. Such fluctuations can also be caused by wind, waves on lakes and rivers, waterfalls, avalanches, glaciers, etc. Regular low-amplitude vibration microseisms are often caused by technogenic causes. A typical example is the launch of the von Braun rocket "Saturn-3", which delivered the first astronauts to the moon; vibration after the launch of the rocket was recorded within a radius of up to 1500 km for many hours.
Intense vibration of the surface excites the movement of transport, the activity of industrial enterprises with a mode of impulsive mechanical loading, explosive "rebound" and caving of ore at mining operations, and much more.
Special seismogenic oscillatory regimes of the crust form standing waves of large water basins - these are short-period quasi-harmonic oscillations that cyclically transform, but do not move laterally. They arise as a result of the addition of counter traveling waves in the outer spheres of the Earth. Such waves (swell) initiate infrasonic waves into the atmosphere and along the water surface, and the projection of the area of standing waves on the seabed is a regional zone of excitation of microseismic vibrations in the earth's crust. Seismic impacts cause large asteroids to fall, causing vibrations in the earth's crust and sometimes the mantle.
The shock waves of the atmospheric nature cause thunderstorms. There are about 16x106 of them on Earth a year (almost every second) with an extremely uneven distribution. Ocean hurricanes (tornadoes, typhoons, cyclones) of low latitudes are especially dangerous in their consequences. They fall on the coasts of the continents at a speed of 60-100 m / sec and more. In the rear part of typhoons, standing waves appear, generating periodic "blows" to the bottom of the sea. And microseisms caused by these standing waves spread over huge distances and are recorded by all seismic stations of the World Wide Web.
Man-made shock waves of atmospheric nature cause jet planes to break the sound barrier. Induced microseismic vibrations can be used as a geophysical weapon if the target of attack is located on swampy or sandy soils, or over voids, in which resonant vibrations can be caused. Correctly selected frequencies of micro-vibrations can lead to the destruction of buildings, road surfaces, pipeline systems.
Impact Place: Earth's Achilles Heels
The distribution of internal stresses in the earth's crust is more than heterogeneous. Without a preliminary analysis, it is impossible to determine what the use of tectonic weapons in a given place will lead to - a destructive earthquake or weak shocks, or perhaps the tectonic stress, on the contrary, will be removed, and it will be impossible to initiate an earthquake in this area for a very, very long time. Moreover, the epicenter is guaranteed not to be in the place of the initiating explosion or vibrator. The geographic location of the target also plays an important role. On this side, countries in traditionally earthquake-prone areas are vulnerable, but here earthquakes with a magnitude of at least 9 points should be caused to ensure the destruction of earthquake-resistant structures (if they prevail), capable of maintaining integrity during 7-9 point shocks.
To calculate the impact site of a seismically stable zone, of course, a larger amount of input data is required - from a long-term array of records of local seismic stations to maps of groundwater, communications and relief. Here it is enough to cause a 5 - 6 magnitude earthquake. The convenience of tectonic weapons is that the explosion can be carried out not on the territory of the target country, but in neutral waters or on the territory of one's own or a friendly state. The vulnerability of countries with ocean coasts should be especially noted - the population density there is higher, and an underwater explosion will cause a tsunami.
Divergent boundaries (boundaries of the spread of lithospheric plates) are most sensitive to directional impacts. These are the boundaries between plates moving in opposite directions. In the relief of the Earth, these boundaries are expressed by rifts, tensile deformations prevail in them, the crustal thickness is reduced, the heat flow is maximum, and active volcanism occurs. Ocean rifts are confined to the central parts of the mid-ocean ridges. The formation of a new oceanic crust occurs in them. Their total length is more than 60 thousand kilometers. The thickness of the earth's crust is minimal here and is only 4 km in the region of the mid-oceanic ridge. Continental rifts represent an extended linear depression about hundreds of meters deep. This is the place where the earth's crust thins and expands and magmatism begins. With the formation of the continental rift, the continent split begins.
Another vulnerability is convergent boundaries (boundaries where lithospheric plates collide). Two lithospheric plates move on top of each other and one of the plates crawls under the other (a so-called subdicion zone is formed) or a powerful folded area (collision zone) appears. The Himalayas are the classic conflict zone. If two oceanic plates interact and one of them moves under the other, then an island arc is formed in the subduction zone, if the oceanic and continental ones interact - the oceanic as the denser one turns out to be below and plunges under the continent, into the mantle - an active continental margin is formed. Most active volcanoes are located in the zones of subordination, earthquakes are frequent. Most of the modern subduction zones are located along the periphery of the Pacific Ocean, forming the Pacific Ring of Fire.
With the total length of modern convergent plate boundaries about 57 thousand kilometers, 45 thousand of them are subduction, the remaining 12 thousand are collisional. Where the plates move in a parallel course, but at different speeds, transform faults arise - strike-slip faults that are widespread in the oceans and rare on the continents. In the oceans, transform faults run perpendicular to mid-ocean ridges and break them into segments with an average width of 400 km. The active part of the transform fault is located between the ridge segments. Numerous earthquakes and mountain building processes occur here. On both sides of the segments, there are inactive parts of transform faults.
There are no active movements in them, but they are clearly expressed in the topography of the ocean floor by linear uplifts with a central depression. The only active shift on the continent, the continental transform fault, is the San Andreas fault, which separates the North American lithospheric plate from the Pacific. It is about 800 miles long and is one of the most active faults on the planet: plates are displaced by 0.6 cm per year, earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 6 units occur on average once every 22 years. The city of San Francisco and most of the San Francisco Bay Area are built in the immediate vicinity of this rift.
However, not only the boundaries of the lithospheric plates are seismically active, but also the areas inside the plates where active tectonic and magmatic processes take place. These are hot spots - places where a hot mantle flow (plume) rises to the surface, which melts the oceanic crust moving above it. This is how volcanic islands are formed. An example is the Hawaiian Submarine Ridge, which rises above the ocean surface in the form of the Hawaiian Islands, from which a chain of seamounts with continuously increasing age runs to the northwest, some of which, for example, Midway Atoll, come to the surface. At a distance of about 3000 km from Hawaii, the chain turns slightly to the north, and is already called the Imperial Ridge.
With the help of tectonic weapons, you can provoke the eruption of a dormant volcano. However, in this case, we can only talk about an economic loss for the target country. The eruption does not happen overnight, and important strategic objects are not placed next to dormant volcanoes. However, the most powerful eruptions in human history can be considered an exception. For example, the famous Krakatoa (not far from the island of Java) destroyed 36 thousand people in 1883, it was heard all over the planet. 20 km3 of volcanic matter was thrown out, the ozone layer of the planet decreased by 10%.
There are volcanoes, the explosion of which will lead to catastrophic consequences not only for the country in whose territory they are located, but also for the whole world. Among them is the volcano Cumber Vieja, located on the island of La Palma (Canary Ridge, near the western coast of Africa).
Waking up (and this is possible not only from a directed push, but also spontaneously), this volcano will shake off its entire slope into the ocean - about 500 km3. When falling, a kilometer-long water dome is formed, resembling a nuclear mushroom, a tsunami is formed, which at a speed of 800 km / h will run across the ocean. The largest waves, more than one hundred meters high, will hit Africa. Nine hours after the eruption, a 50-meter tsunami will wash away New York, Boston and all settlements located 10 km from the ocean from the east coast of North America. Closer to Cape Canaveral, the wave height will drop to 26 meters, a 12-meter tsunami will fall on Great Britain, Spain, Portugal and France, which will pass 2-3 km inland.
Volcano Cumber Vieja is not the only one. It is logical to avoid using tectonic weapons near such powder barrels, and even more so - to carefully try to "defuse" them. But in this case, we are not talking about weapons, but about comprehensive measures to lower the magma pressure. Tactical weapon technology will thus find peaceful uses. Supervolcanoes are another global threat to humanity. Supervolcanoes are huge calderas - cavities that are constantly filled with molten magma rising from the depths. The magma pressure gradually increases and one day such a supervolcano will explode. Unlike ordinary volcanoes, supervolcanoes are hidden, their eruptions are rare, but extremely destructive. The supervolcano's caldera can only be seen from a satellite or an airplane. Presumablysupervolcanoes originated from the most ancient earthly volcanoes. They are formed when a large-capacity magma reservoir is located close to the Earth's surface, at a depth of up to 10 km. At a shallow depth (2 -5 km), the reservoir has a huge area, up to several thousand square kilometers. The first eruption of a supervolcano is similar to the usual, but very powerful. Since the distance from the reservoir to the surface is small, magma comes out not only through the main vent, but also through the cracks that form in the crust. The volcano begins to erupt all over. As the reservoir is emptied, the remaining pieces of the earth's crust fall down, creating a giant pit. The upper part of the magma, cooling and solidifying, forms a temporary basalt overlap, which prevents the rock from falling further. In most cases, the caldera is filled with water,forming a volcanic lake. These lakes are characterized by elevated temperatures and high sulfur concentrations. And the reservoir is again filled with magma, the pressure of which is constantly increasing. During the next eruption, the pressure becomes higher than the critical one, it knocks out the entire basalt lid, opening a huge vent.
The last eruption of a supervolcano occurred 74 thousand years ago - it was the Toba supervolcano in Sumatra (Indonesia). Then more than a thousand cubic kilometers of magma was thrown out from the earth's interior, the ejected ash covered the Sun for 6 months, the average temperature dropped by 11 degrees, and five out of every six creatures inhabiting the Earth died. The number of mankind has decreased to 5-10 thousand people. At the site of the explosion, a 1775 sq. km. The explosion of the Toba volcano caused the Little Ice Age. The repeated eruption of Toba volcano will lead to disaster in Southeast Asia. This volcano is located in one of the most earthquake-prone places on Earth. It is in the central part of Sumatra that the epicenter of the third - the strongest earthquake,subsequent to the events that occurred on December 26, 2004 (the strength of shocks on the Richter scale - 9 points) and March 28, 2005 (8.7 points on the Richter scale).
The next earthquake can trigger the eruption of a supervolcano. Its area is 1,775 km2, and the depth of the lake, which is located in the center, is 529 m. There are about 40 supervolcanoes in total, most of which are already inactive: two in Great Britain - one in Scotland, the other in the central Lake District, a supervolcano in Phlegrean Fields on the territory of Naples, on the island of Kos in the Aegean Sea, under New Zealand, Kamchatka, in the Andes, in the Philippines, in Central America, Indonesia and Japan.
The most dangerous is the supervolcano located in the Yellowstone National Park, located in the US state of Idaho and the already mentioned Toba volcano in Sumatra.
The caldera of the supervolcano in Yellowstone was first described in 1972 by the American geologist Dr. Morgan, it is 100 km long and 30 km wide, its total area is 3825 km2, the magma reservoir is located at a depth of only 8 km. This supervolcano can erupt 2.5 thousand km3 of volcanic matter.
The activity of the Yellowstone supervolcano is cyclical: it has already erupted 2 million years ago, 1.3 million years ago and, finally, 630 thousand years ago. Now it is on the verge of explosion: not far from the old caldera, in the area of the Three Sisters (three extinct volcanoes), a sharp rise in the soil was discovered: in four years -178 cm. At the same time, over the previous decade, it rose by only 10 cm, which is also quite lot.
Recently, American volcanologists discovered that magmatic flows under Yellowstone have risen so much that they are at a depth of only 480 m. The explosion in Yellowstone will be catastrophic: a few days before the explosion, the earth's crust will rise several meters, the soil will heat up to 60-70 ° C, and the atmosphere will increase sharply concentration of hydrogen sulfide and helium - this will be the third call before the tragedy and should serve as a signal for mass evacuation of the population.
The explosion will be accompanied by a powerful earthquake, which will be felt in all parts of the planet. Rock pieces will be thrown up to a height of 100 km. Falling, they will cover a gigantic territory - several thousand square kilometers. After the explosion, the caldera will begin to erupt lava flows. The speed of the streams will be several hundred kilometers per hour. In the first minutes after the start of the disaster, all living things within a radius of more than 700 km will be destroyed, and almost everything within a radius of 1200 km, death will occur due to suffocation and hydrogen sulfide poisoning.
The eruption will continue for several days. During this time, the streets of San Francisco, Los Angeles and other cities in the United States of America will be littered with one and a half meter snowdrifts of volcanic slag (pumice ground into dust). The entire US West Coast will become one huge dead zone.
The earthquake will provoke the eruption of several dozen, and possibly hundreds of ordinary volcanoes in all parts of the world, which will follow three to four hours after the start of the Yellowstone disaster. It is likely that the human losses from these secondary eruptions will exceed the losses from the eruption of the main one, for which we will be prepared. The eruptions of oceanic volcanoes will generate many tsunamis that will wipe out all Pacific and Atlantic coastal cities. In a day, acid rains will begin to pour throughout the continent, which will destroy most of the vegetation.
The ozone hole over the mainland will grow to such a size that everything that escaped destruction from a volcano, ash and acid will fall victim to solar radiation. It will take two to three weeks for the clouds of ash and ash to cross the Atlantic and the Pacific Ocean, and a month later they will cover the Sun all over the Earth.
The temperature of the atmosphere will drop by an average of 21 ° C. Nordic countries such as Finland or Sweden will simply cease to exist. The most heavily populated and agriculturally dependent India and China will suffer the most. Here, up to 1.5 billion people will die of hunger in the coming months. In total, as a result of the cataclysm, more than 2 billion people (or every third inhabitant of the Earth) will be destroyed.
Siberia and the eastern European part of Russia, which are seismically stable and located in the interior of the continent, will be least affected by destruction.
The duration of the nuclear winter will be four years. Presumably, three eruptions of the Yellowstone supervolcano took place in history during a cycle of 600 - 700 thousand years about 2.1 million years ago. The last eruption occurred 640,000 years ago. Thus, supervolcanoes cannot be allowed to erupt. The use of geophysical weapons in the area of supervolcanoes will lead to a global catastrophe. Which, however, automatically makes tectonic weapons a weapon of "retaliation". A single missile strike in the Yellowstone Park area would destroy the entire United States and throw humanity back hundreds of years. It is not clear why no measures are still being taken to reduce the magma pressure in the caldera under Yellowstone - modern technology quite allows this, nevertheless, geologists limit themselves to observation.
Weapon
Any means that cause vibrations in the earth's crust can be used as a tectonic weapon. An explosion is also a powerful vibration, and therefore it is most logical to use explosive technologies. In addition to explosions, vibrators can be installed and a large amount of fluid is pumped into the place of tectonic tension. However, it is difficult to do this unexpectedly and unnoticed by the enemy, and the effect is lower than that of explosive technologies. Vibrators are used mainly as a means of sounding, determining the level of tectonic tension, and pumping fluids into faults - as a means of "smoothing" the effects of shear of the crustal massif.
Seismic vibrators
The most powerful seismic vibrator in the world is "TsVO-100", it was built in 1999 at a research site near the town of Babushkin, on South Baikal. Scientists of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences were involved in its development. The seismic vibrator is a hundred-ton metal structure, which, swinging, creates a stable seismic signal. Thus, the features of signal transmission through earthquake focal zones are studied and microdischarges of the already existing tectonic stress are caused. Mainly seismic vibrators are used in technical exploration for oil and gas. Seismic vibrators excite longitudinal elastic waves in the ground (for example, seismic vibrator SV-20-150S or SV-3-150M2), sometimes waves are generated by transferring energy to the ground surface,gas mixture released during the explosion in the explosion chamber (source of seismic signals SI-32). Modern seismic vibrators are too weak to be used as tectonic weapons.
Liquid injection
From a geological point of view, the cause of an earthquake can be a large volume of water filling reservoirs in low-lying areas, on soft or unstable soils. Ground movements that cause earthquakes are especially likely when the height of the water column in reservoirs is more than 100 m (sometimes 40-45 m is enough). Such earthquakes also occur when water is pumped into mines after ore mining and empty oil wells. In Japan, when 288 tons of water were pumped into a well, an earthquake occurred with an epicenter located 3 km away. In 1935, during the construction of the dam and the filling of the Boulder Dam reservoir, tremors were noted at a water level of 100 m. Their frequency increased with rising water levels. The flooding of the Kariba reservoir in Africa (one of the largest in the world) has made the area seismically active. In Switzerland, on the shores of Lake Zug, on the night of July 5, 1887, 150 thousand m3 of land began to move and destroyed dozens of houses, killing many people. It is believed to be caused by the work carried out at that time on driving piles on unstable soils. However, it is unlikely to use fluid injection as a weapon. Is that as a terrorist act or sabotage.
Weapon patent
In 2005, the Tomsk branch of the Federal Service for Intellectual Property, Patents and Trademarks issued a patent to Irkutsk scientists for an invention “Method for controlling the displacement regime in fragments of seismically active tectonic faults”. In the media, this patent was called "the tectonic weapon patent." However, the developed method can hardly be called a weapon - it is designed to ensure seismic safety in places of megacities and environmentally hazardous facilities, on construction sites and in the design of especially important construction projects. The developed method makes it possible to prevent destructive earthquakes: tectonic stress is relieved by means of a complex dynamic action on the fault and saturation of its most dangerous fragment with liquid. The method is implemented at the level of small natural objects - fragments of faults up to 100 m long.
Penetrators - penetrating warheads
The first initiated earthquake occurred precisely after an underground nuclear explosion. The share of energy spent on the formation of a crater, a zone of destruction and seismic shock waves is most significant when nuclear charges are buried in the ground. Underground nuclear explosions were supposed to be used to destroy highly protected targets. Work on the creation of penetrators was started by order of the Pentagon in the mid-70s, when the concept of "counterforce" strike was given priority. The first prototype of a penetrating warhead was developed in the early 1980s for the Pershing-2 medium-range missile. After the signing of the Treaty on Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF), the efforts of US specialists were redirected to create such ammunition for ICBMs. The developers of the new warhead met with significant difficulties associated withfirst of all, with the need to ensure its integrity and performance when moving in the ground. Huge overloads acting on the warhead (5000-8000 g, g-acceleration of gravity) impose extremely stringent requirements on the design of the ammunition.
The destructive effect of such a warhead on buried, especially strong targets is determined by two factors - the power of the nuclear charge and the magnitude of its burial into the ground. At the same time, for each value of the charge power, there is an optimal depth of penetration, at which the maximum efficiency of the penetrator is ensured. So, for example, the destructive effect of a 200 kiloton nuclear charge on especially strong targets will be quite effective when it is buried to a depth of 15-20 meters and it will be equivalent to the effect of a ground explosion of a 600 kt MX missile warhead. Military experts have determined that, given the accuracy of delivery of the penetrator warhead, characteristic of MX and Trident-2 missiles, the probability of destroying an enemy's missile silo or command post with one warhead is very high. It means,that in this case the probability of destruction of targets will be determined only by the technical reliability of the delivery of warheads.
During the counter-terrorist operation in Afghanistan, the US Army used high-precision laser-guided bombs to defeat the Taliban who were hiding in prepared caves. These weapons proved to be practically powerless against such cover.
The discovery by the American military of several large underground militant bases in Iraq prompted a renewed discussion around the creation of new weapons in the United States to combat targets hidden deep underground. In addition, it is known that a significant part of the military facilities of Iran and North Korea are also underground. At the same time, weapons that strike an underground bunker must be guaranteed to destroy bacteriological and chemical weapons that may be produced or stored there. In 2005, at the initiative of the US military department, research and development work (R&D) was launched under the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator (RNEP) program, which can roughly be translated from English as “a durable nuclear device for penetrating the earth surface".
According to American intelligence estimates, there are about 100 potential strategic targets for nuclear warheads created under the RNEP program today around the world. Moreover, the overwhelming majority of them are located at depths of no more than 250 meters from the earth's surface. But a number of objects are located at a depth of 500-700 meters. Although, according to calculations, nuclear "penetrators" will be able to penetrate up to 100 meters of clay soil and up to 12 meters of rocky soil of medium strength, in any case, they will destroy underground targets due to their power incomparable with conventional high-explosive ammunition. In order to exclude as much as possible radioactive contamination of the earth's surface and the impact of radiation on the local population, a 300-kiloton nuclear weapon must be detonated at a depth of at least 800 meters.
The draft military budget for 2006 allocated $ 4.5 million for RNEP research and development. Another $ 4 million was allocated for this purpose through the US Department of Energy. And in fiscal 2007, the Bush administration intends to allocate a total of another $ 14 million to develop underground nuclear "penetrators".
Another - "peaceful" use of penetrators - to study the structure and seismic activity of the planets of the solar system. The presence of penetrators is envisaged in the flight projects to the Moon and Mars currently being developed in Russia. A combined orbital / launch vehicle configuration is currently being developed for missions to the moon. It will carry three different systems for exploration of the lunar surface, including 10 high-speed penetrators, two slower penetrating launch vehicles and a polar station. The Mars-94 is equipped with two penetrators. On Earth, penetrators are used to study the physical and geochemical parameters of sediments on the continental slope and the bottom of the deep-water regions of the World Ocean.
Recently, a branch of the French Institute for the Exploration of the Seas in Brest (1'IPREMER-Brest) and the Geoocean Solmarine company have developed an improved instrument. Previously, the penetrator could penetrate into the bottom sediments only by 2 m, with the new design, the drill with measuring equipment is able to go deeper by 20 or even 30 m. The device is lowered and installed at a working depth (up to 6 thousand m) using a special cable. The movement of the apparatus is controlled by an autonomous device that determines the load on the drill (its maximum is determined at 4 tons). The new penetrator can be equipped with search heads for measuring the density of precipitation and its temperature, thermal conductivity, friction against the ground, etc. These penetrators, if equipped with explosive devices, can be used to organize explosions in the area of ocean rifts.
Device of penetrators A necessary condition for the functioning of penetrators is penetration to considerable depths, accompanied by large overloads, reaching several thousand g, which can exceed the values permissible for the instrument compartment. A possible way to reduce the overloads acting on the instrument compartment is the use of various kinds of damping devices - plastic, elastic, gas. Among the listed devices, gas dampers have greater versatility and better overall and mass characteristics. The penetrator contains a housing with a payload located at its bottom, in front of which there is a working cavity filled with gas under pressure. To improve the centering of the penetrator during flight in the atmosphere, the payload can be located at the warhead,and before meeting the ground, move to the bottom of the housing to the initial position for the damper operation. When decelerating the body of the penetrator at the moment it meets the ground, the payload can move along the body, compressing the gas in the working cavity, thus damping the sharp increase in overload when the head penetrates. The process of penetration into solid soil is somewhat different from penetration into medium-density soil, when the body and the payload are decelerated almost simultaneously. When penetrating into the sandstone, the hull is sharply decelerated, and the payload continues to move, giving the hull its energy, accelerating it.thus damping a sharp increase in overload when the head penetrates. The process of penetration into solid soil is somewhat different from penetration into medium-density soil, when the body and the payload are decelerated almost simultaneously. When penetrating into the sandstone, the hull is sharply decelerated, and the payload continues to move, giving the hull its energy, accelerating it.thus damping a sharp increase in overload when the head penetrates. The process of penetration into solid soil is somewhat different from penetration into medium-density soil, when the body and the payload are decelerated almost simultaneously. When penetrating into the sandstone, the hull is sharply decelerated, and the payload continues to move, giving the hull its energy, accelerating it.
Defense Against Tectonic Weapons
There is a danger of tectonic weapons being used by international terrorists, in addition, too many countries are now developing tectonic weapons to feel safe. There is no defense against tectonic weapons, however, a number of measures can be taken to reduce its destructive impact. Firstly, to toughen safety procedures on the territory of environmentally harmful enterprises, to construct industrial facilities seismic resistant, regardless of whether the area is seismically hazardous, preferably on rocky soils.
General methods of protecting structures from earthquakes:
- size minimization;
- increased strength;
- low placement of the center of gravity;
- shear adjustment:
- preparation of the space within which the shift will occur
- using flexible communication or providing for a break in communication
- overturning device;
- durable exterior finish;
- adaptation to destruction;
- adaptation to the destruction of the building
- tunnels at exits.
An extended structure (pipeline, etc.) can withstand the mutual displacement of soil sections under it only on the condition that it is weakly connected with this soil. On the other hand, in order to prevent the structure from shifting relative to the integrity of the soil during lateral shocks, the connection of the structure with the ground must be strong. The solution may be that the strength of the bond of the structure with the ground is slightly less than the tensile strength of the structure.
The design of the elements of the connection of the structure with the ground should be such that only envisaged local easily removable damages take place.
Protecting cars from earthquakes:
- road blocking with a solid board approximately half the wheel height
- exit from the road becomes impossible;
- separation of oncoming traffic lanes by a solid board approximately half the wheel height;
- adaptation of viaducts and bridges to ground displacements, ensure through the use of wide supports.
It is preferable not to build anything near volcanoes. If this is unacceptable, constant readiness for evacuation is required: transport routes, vehicles, etc. There should be no traffic jams, no crowding at the berths. All buildings must be made of non-combustible materials. Everyone should have a plastic helmet ready. Buildings must be able to withstand the shock wave and the fall of large incandescent rocks.
The survivability of modern buildings is extremely low. It is possible to significantly increase the survivability of a building through not very large changes in its structure and not very significant increase in its value. True, aesthetic preferences will often suffer. The higher the building, the more difficult it is to ensure its strength and survivability, the more difficult it is to evacuate from it, the more severe the consequences of its collapse. Thus, a skyscraper is a symbol of carelessness. If buildings were built with walls 50% thicker than now accepted, they would be 20% more expensive, but 2 times stronger and 3 times more durable.
Additional protection is needed for dams, dams and bridges, power supply facilities, chemical and metallurgical industries. Such protection measures will not be superfluous in any case - they will allow not only to reduce destruction during an attack using geophysical weapons, but also to mitigate the consequences of natural disasters.
Usage Requirements
Mexico, Peru, Chile, Cuba, Iran and other countries have repeatedly accused the USA, USSR, China and France of provoking earthquakes in their territories. But their statements remained an empty shake of the air - seismograms, unambiguously confirming that the earthquake was provoked by the diplomats, were not provided. As already noted, an artificial earthquake is distinguished by an aftershock effect, and, probably, by the absence of a "seismic dynamo effect".
Currently, there are a number of international treaties and agreements that, to one degree or another, restrict intentional impacts on geophysical environments:
- Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer (1985);
- Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987);
- Convention on Biological Diversity (1992);
- Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context (1991);
- Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects (1972);
- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992).
Based on this, an important requirement follows - the use of this kind of weapon should have a "hidden" character, one way or another imitating natural phenomena. This consideration fundamentally distinguishes geophysical weapons from conventional weapons and even from weapons of mass destruction. It is very difficult to maintain secrecy of active impact on the environment, since at present countries such as the USA, Russia, France, Germany, Great Britain, Japan and some others have a wide variety of environmental monitoring systems. However, difficult does not mean impossible.
Another requirement is locality - tectonic weapons should not affect the country that used them and should not lead to a global catastrophe. Construction activities and economic management require rethinking - the possibility of using tectonic weapons by the enemy is not envisaged in the world. The infrastructure of a modern city is extremely vulnerable, as can be seen from the scale of the last major earthquakes. Frighteningly, the world community after each natural disaster is more concerned with helping the victims and recrimination than preventing catastrophic destruction.
"Trigger effect" - the introduction of a small amount of energy (regardless of its type) can lead to very significant changes in the properties of geophysical media.
DUAL PURPOSE TECHNOLOGY - a technology underlying the creation of final systems (products) of weapons and military equipment, their constituent elements, assemblies, components and materials, the use of which is possible and economically feasible in the production of civilian products, subject to the adoption of special measures to control its distribution …
It also includes the technology used for the production of products for general civil purposes, which is used or may find application in the production of weapons and military equipment (its use is functionally and economically feasible).
There are three types of seismic waves known:
- Compression waves (longitudinal, primary P-waves) - vibrations of rock particles along the direction of wave propagation. They create alternating areas of compression and depression in the rock. Fastest and first recorded by seismic stations
- Shear waves (transverse, secondary, S-waves) - vibrations of rock particles perpendicular to the direction of wave propagation. The propagation speed is 1.7 times less than the speed of primary waves
- Surface (long, L-waves) - cause the greatest damage.
post-shock ("aftershock") vibrational aftereffect is typical only for meteorite phenomena, atomic explosions and other technogenic phenomena of shock-wave impact on the earth's crust, it is not observed during a natural lithospheric seismogenic process. Aftershock fluctuations can serve as an indicator of the use of tectonic weapons.
A rift is a linearly elongated flat tectonic structure that cuts the earth's crust between plates moving in opposite directions. Length from hundreds to thousands of kilometers, width from tens to 200-400 km. Formed in zones of stretching of the earth's crust.
Lateral direction, away from the median plane.
LIFE - the ability not to collapse after partial damage.
Strong electromagnetic signals immediately ahead of tremors. The effect was discovered thanks to seismograph records after a devastating earthquake in the Turkish city of Izmir in 1999
Author of the text: Yulia Olegovna Kobrinovich