A recent study published in the journal Astrobiology suggests that there are four different scenarios for the development of civilization. Only one of these scenarios leads to its long-term existence, which makes one question very acute: "can we cope with the changes that we make to the environment while developing."
The study was conducted by Adam Frank, professor of physics and astronomy at the University of Rochester. He argues that according to the laws of physics, any energy-intensive civilization like ours will inevitably receive feedback from the planet that it inhabits. The further we evolve, the more energy we use, thereby heating the planet and causing climate change. In fact, today we do not know how climate change might affect our lives.
From this point of view, the scientist explains four possible ways of development of our civilization and any other, as well as why we have not yet met an extraterrestrial civilization.
Four possible paths
Together with his colleagues, Frank has developed a mathematical model that predicts the impact of increased energy consumption on the planet. His model includes knowledge of physics, chemistry, and population dynamics. Information about pre-existing civilizations was also used.
As a result, there were only four possible options for the development of civilization. In three of them, civilization is doomed to destruction, and only in one is a favorable outcome for people or other intelligent organisms possible. The decisive role is played by the point in its development civilization realizes the harmfulness of its impact on the environment.
Promotional video:
All four options are presented in the graphs. The black line indicates the growth of the civilization's population, and the red line indicates the temperature of the planet.
- The first scenario assumes that the development of civilization will transform the planet so much that 90 percent of the population will not be able to exist on it.
- The second scenario assumes that civilization finds a balance between population growth and the growth of a detrimental effect on the planet. Having found equilibrium and the required level of population, at which the planet will stop changing, civilization can exist.
- The third scenario represents too high population growth, in which the planet is not able to support it with the necessary resources.
- And in the fourth scenario, civilization understands that it has caused changes in the planet, which need to be combated, but this realization comes too late.
Why have we not yet met an extraterrestrial civilization
Frank and his team believe that climate change may be the answer to a famous question called the Fermi paradox. Statistically, other intelligent civilizations almost certainly evolved in the universe, but for some reason, we still haven't seen evidence of this. The possible answer is that climate change does not allow any civilization to survive long enough to begin travel to distant stars.
In other words, there is a barrier that prevents any civilization from finding another before it ceases to exist. If this is really so, it turns out that none of the civilizations was able to find the very balance that would allow them to preserve themselves and their planet. At the same time, theoretically, somewhere in the universe, some civilizations are asking this question.
On Earth, we can also try to find a balance, but only on the condition that it is not too late.
Ernest Vasilevsky