Climatologist, expert on extreme precipitation, senior researcher at the Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences and professor at the Alpine University of Grenoble (France) told Gazeta. Ru who "shattered" the climate by causing a hurricane, snow and cooling in late spring, and whether to wait for the onset of eternal autumn. Olga Zolina.
Olga, how do you, being in France, look at what is happening in central Russia through the eyes of a climatologist? It seems that for the second month we have had cold weather, rains, hail, snow and hurricanes …
- In fact, a little less, it started in early May, and before that, in April, everything was within normal limits. There is nothing special in this, since the June returns of cold weather occur, if not every year, then with some recurrence, and this is not new. This is how the atmospheric circulation lined up - there is the so-called cyclonic blocking, which is gradually beginning to collapse.
A powerful high-pressure anticyclone stands over the Atlantic Ocean, and cyclones follow one another along its northern periphery. These cyclones pump cold, humid air from the Arctic, and as a result, in the European part of Russia, the transport is carried out not from west to east, but from north to south.
And these cyclones go in one stream, and it is really interesting why this blocking does not break down for so long.
But no one will give an answer here yet. Last summer we talked with you about the "nervousness" of the climate, and now its next manifestation is evident. Over the past hundred years, we have thoroughly got into the initially self-regulating climate system, and it does not have time to work out, to return to a certain balance. As a result, atypical or extreme weather events occur, and more and more of them every year. Now it is even difficult to imagine what else to expect.
What weather records have been set during this time? May was called the coldest in the XXI century …
- Yes, a hurricane with high wind speeds, completely uncharacteristic for this region, was atypical. And if in the USA tornadoes and tornadoes are well-known and widespread phenomena, then for Moscow it is, of course, an extreme event. Such high wind speeds have already been observed in Moscow, but, fortunately, very rarely. This squall was a consequence of the passage of the atmospheric front, a sharp drop in pressure, and, as a consequence, an increase in wind speed.
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Does the current prolonged cold snap in Moscow have historical analogues?
- Do not confuse weather and climate. If for 30 years every year in June the temperature kept around +6 degrees and snow fell, we could talk about some kind of global climatic restructuring. If this happens every five or ten years, then this is a local restructuring of the circulation of the atmosphere, which will then return to its usual course.
Historically, we have very little data. We can judge about the same Little Ice Age only by some chronicles, records of monasteries and paintings. In addition, these are completely different time scales - they talked about a cold snap that lasted about 400 years. Therefore, it is better to look back at the period of instrumental observations, and then it is clear that recently the record for the lowest temperature on June 6 - +5 degrees - was almost broken.
The fact that what we observe today is the work of the person himself leaves no doubt for scientists?
- The fact that man has climbed into the climate system is a proven fact, as indicated by the results of climate modeling summarized in the IPCC reports. There is certainly an anthropogenic factor, and it affects the climate, and we cannot do anything about it, since we cannot stop the industry. And this leads to atypical behavior of the climate system, which often surprises us, since it is very different from what we can assume.
There is no doubt that there will be more and more such "strange" weather manifestations.
Last time you said that one of the manifestations of global warming may be the onset of an eternal spring or autumn with implicit seasons, constant cloud cover and precipitation. Do we see a harbinger of this?
- If we see what we observe today every year for a long time, then we can talk about climate change, a decrease in the off-season amplitude and that the average temperature in summer decreases. Some time ago there were very warm winters in Moscow, when there was practically no snow on New Year's for several years in a row. True, then everything switched and became normal. In the meantime, we see that yes, the beginning of summer is cold and not very pleasant.
Eternal autumn is one of the theoretical possibilities that could be realized in connection with global warming.
Climatologists work mostly by looking back, analyzing what has happened in recent decades and trying to understand why it happened. Long-term forecasting is done by scientists working with general circulation models based on hydrodynamic equations. However, to obtain long-term climate forecasts, it is necessary to choose a scenario of how the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will change. Nobody knows this, and there are several approximate scenarios - pessimistic, that is, a very strong increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases, the way things are going now, and optimistic, that is, a sharp reduction in emissions.
What do your colleagues and you think about the recent US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement?
- In general, the Paris Agreement is a rather artificial thing, since the main "suppliers" of greenhouse gases are developing countries, which have a lot of other problems and climate change is far from the first place for them. But our American colleagues are very wary and concerned that Trump has repeatedly spoken not very positively about fundamental research in climate science.
For him, the so-called "climate service" is in the first place - that is, practical applications.
However, practical applications relate mainly to weather forecasting, roughly speaking, whether to take an umbrella tomorrow or not, and to improve the quality of weather forecasting, it is precisely fundamental climate research that is needed. Of course, Trump's announced withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is not good enough, not only from the point of view of the problem of global warming, but also from the point of view of the development of climate science.
Author: Pavel Kotlyar, "Gazeta. Ru"