Why haven't we made contact with aliens yet? Perhaps, representatives of alien civilizations are hiding from us the fact of their existence for the reason that we have not yet matured to be accepted into a certain "intergalactic club". This theory is discussed in detail in an article posted on the Arxiv.org electronic library website.
Drake's equation and the Fermi paradox
Back in 1961, professor of astronomy and astrophysics, Francis Donald Drake, developed a formula that determines the hypothetical number of intelligent civilizations with which we could come into contact. The Drake equation includes such parameters as the number of stars formed annually in our Galaxy, the proportion of stars that have their own planets, and, finally, the probability of the origin of life on planets where there are suitable conditions for this.
The most famous hypothesis about the chances of contact with extraterrestrial intelligence belongs to the American physicist Enrico Fermi, who relied on the Drake equation in his research. This is how the Fermi paradox arose: if there are many alien civilizations, then why do we not notice their presence?
The Galactic Club theory
Meanwhile, back in the mid-70s, the famous Australian astrophysicist Ronald Bracewell put forward the idea of a "Galactic Zoo" or "Galactic Club". Its essence is that there is a certain community of civilizations (for example, within the framework of our Galaxy), whose members maintain relationships with each other. But they do not come into contact with us, since we are still too "backward" for them. Either our civilization is not sufficiently developed in terms of science and technology, or our morality and ethics have not yet "grown" to their standards …
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There is nothing surprising in this. Closed elite clubs and communities have always existed in a variety of areas. And, as a rule, membership there is available only if certain conditions are met - for example, the candidate has a certain status, receiving recommendations from other participants, or successfully passing tests or tests.
After Bracewell's theory was widely publicized, it had its supporters and opponents. The latter argue that the creation of the "Galactic Club" is completely impossible, since it is extremely difficult to establish communications between different civilizations, as well as to keep all developed civilizations from contact with "barbarians" like us.
Chances not enough?
Recently, astronomer Duncan Forgan from the University of St Andrews (Scotland) decided to check whether the existence of such an "interstellar club" is possible purely theoretically. For example, will he be able to maintain "discipline" among his members and ensure that they all follow the rules …
For this, the scientist tried to calculate the number of civilizations that could arise within the Milky Way since its inception, and also determine the number of possible cultural ties between them.
Forgan came to the conclusion that uniting all these civilizations into a club is a rather difficult task, since the planets where life could arise are separated by too great distances. But in our Galaxy, several local coalitions could well have formed, each of which includes civilizations of planets located relatively close to each other and capable of maintaining more or less stable contacts with each other.
The existence of such small interplanetary "clubs" is possible if such civilizations appear "in the neighborhood" of each other quite rarely and if the period of their existence exceeds 250 thousand years (by the way, our species of "Homo sapiens" is already 190 thousand years old) … The number of such interplanetary "cliques" depends on the intervals between the births of new civilizations. The longer these gaps are, the more such groups can appear.
Of course, it cannot be argued with a high degree of probability that such “local coalitions” really exist. But their existence is much more likely than the presence of a global interplanetary association … Such a "Galactic Empire", according to Forgan, could
exist if the lifespan of intelligent civilizations was equal to millions of years, if they were born at relatively short intervals (every few million years) and, finally, their total number would be several hundred … The chances of this are very small.
