A very specific competition has been announced in Russia. It will be held at the Academy of the General Staff with the assistance of the Advanced Research Fund, and its task will be to put forward the most reasonable and realistic scenarios of upcoming armed conflicts. Modern warfare differs from the clashes of previous periods, although it inherits certain common features from them. People are dying in the same way, equipment is on fire, civilians are suffering, but significant differences have appeared, both in the tactics used and in the types of technical means used. Preparation for new challenges is very important, the higher its level, the more chances to avoid threats, and the conflicts themselves too, because the stronger the enemy, the fewer people willing to attack him.
Objectives and participants
Not everyone will be able to take part in the competition announced by the General Staff of the Russian Federation, but only military specialists, professionals with the necessary knowledge and appropriate education. Practical skills are highly appreciated. However, a fresh look is very valuable, so even cadets of higher military educational institutions will be involved. War is a science, so it will not do without employees of specialized research institutes. After the works are presented to the jury, the most interesting of them will undergo a detailed analysis and discussion in the "brainstorming" mode. This is important, since the purpose of the competition is not to develop a single scenario according to which the next armed conflicts may take place, but to realize their multivariate nature. An evolutionary character is inherent in the development of both defense and offensive,nothing changes instantly, so the most technologically advanced methods today are often combined with the experience of previous generations. Confucius pointed out the futility of thinking without backing it up with knowledge, but knowledge without thinking is also useless.
Hybridity
This term has come into use since the beginning of the third millennium, although in its essence it means practically nothing. The history of wars shows that the opposing sides have always used any available means to inflict maximum damage on the enemy. Another question is that in our time there are more different ways and channels of influence. The non-standard approach to solving combat missions is manifested in the participation of irregular formations (although guerrilla tactics have been used for a very long time), as well as in the use of means of psychological influence through information warfare. Terrorist attacks have also become commonplace today. At the same time, participants in conflicts often try to avoid direct blame for certain events, passing them off as spontaneous ones. The concept of "prohibited methods" is becoming more and more blurred,various forces receive overt or covert support from foreign states, which complicates a peaceful settlement. An example is the Syrian conflict, in which various armed groups are opposing multilaterally. The involvement and assistance of external allies is often difficult to prove, just as accusations of interference are not always fair.
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This approach is nothing new either. Each country throughout its history has sought to attract the most intelligent, courageous and strong subjects to its number of defenders, providing them with various social benefits. The scale of the hostilities that took place throughout the 20th century forced many states to resort to massive mobilization of human resources, but today, when the likelihood of a world war, fortunately, has decreased, there is no need to put tens of millions of people under arms. In the peacetime army, and especially in the units of increased combat readiness (rapid response), the most trained volunteers are now recruited, training them as real professionals. It is expensive, but practice shows that this method of ensuring defense capability is more effective. The same applies to equipping the armed forces,becoming more and more complex and technologically advanced.
Ammunition
The same is the situation with regard to equipment. Military equipment has always absorbed all the most advanced achievements of modern industrial capabilities, and our time is no exception. Ammunition and equipment are becoming more and more saturated with various gadgets, created to maximize the effectiveness of personnel actions. The soldier receives protection from bullets and shrapnel, the ability to see at night, observe the whole picture of the battle on special displays, not to mention communication. All this is costly for defense budgets, but nothing can be done about it.
Quantitative policy
No matter how well trained military professionals are, large countries will not be able to defend their interests using only special forces. It is possible that the size of the armed forces will decrease over time, but not so much that, if necessary, they cannot be used to conduct several operations simultaneously, in some cases at a considerable geographical distance from one group from another. Analysts in the United States believe that the American army "cannot handle" more than two local conflicts, although the costs of maintaining it are enormous. Russia will not be able to do with a small number of personnel, if only because of the vastness of the territory. At the same time, the experience of the second half of the 20th century and modern events indicate that limited wars occur frequently, and that they require significant human resources to “stop” them.
Robotization
Man will undoubtedly remain the main active object of the war, but the role of machines is ever increasing. Already now, unmanned vehicles are widely used, controlled either remotely or completely in an autonomous automatic mode.
Combat and auxiliary robots are being developed in different countries, including Russia. Headquarters teams are developed on the basis of computer analysis, and the calculation of planned operations has become impossible without computing power. Disabling the enemy's information network in modern conditions practically guarantees his defeat, therefore cyber security acquires strategic importance, as well as electronic warfare technologies.
The role of nuclear weapons
The main function of hydrogen and neutron forces remains the containment of large-scale aggression. The bet on powerful blasting (including vacuum) ammunition could be considered justified if it were not for the fact that any nuclear power, facing the threat of military defeat, will inevitably use its entire arsenal for its defense. Therefore, most likely, there will be no significant changes in this area.
The main goal of the competition
The Russian army has always been famous for the fact that it could concentrate its main forces on the most important areas, that is, it reacted asymmetrically to any manifestations of aggression. Probably, the main task of the General Staff competition will not be to paint some terrible futurological pictures, but to analyze the most real threats to state security and develop effective countermeasures, and with minimal costs. It is not necessary to assume that the situation in the world will change significantly in the near future, but it is necessary to present probable threats. Forewarned is forearmed.