Experts fear that the spread of the pathogen will not be able to stop until the summer
Stock markets will have to endure Black Thursday, and global economic growth will slow to a level close to 1%, analysts say. All this will follow a loud announcement made on March 11 by the head of the World Health Organization (WHO). On Wednesday, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus announced that the spread of COVID-19 has become a pandemic. The experts interviewed are confident that this decision should have been taken earlier and it is time for the states to introduce the most severe measures to combat the virus. On the same day, Russia announced the restriction of flights from March 13 to Italy, Germany, Spain and France. Epidemiologists suggest that the spread of the pathogen will continue until at least summer.
Time for tough measures
On March 11, at a briefing in Geneva, the head of the WHO, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said that the nature of the spread of COVID-19 can already be assessed as a global pandemic. In the evening of this day, the Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE counter showed that the number of people infected with a new type of coronavirus in the world reached 121,564. As of March 11, 4373 people became victims of the infection. On the mainland of China, 80,969 cases of COVID-19 were registered, in second place is Italy (10149), in third - Iran (9000). A difficult situation developed in Spain (2175), France (1784) and Germany (1629).
The operational headquarters for the prevention of the import and spread of coronavirus infection in Russia on Wednesday evening announced the introduction of new restrictive measures in the country.
- The criterion for declaring a pandemic is globality. Even if everyone in China were infected without exception, this would be considered a regional case, ” explained Pavel Volchkov, head of the MIPT genomic engineering laboratory.
According to him, the announcement of a pandemic is the legitimization of the most stringent measures so that countries do not wait for large outbreaks, but try to stop the spread of the infection at this stage.
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One of the criteria for declaring a pandemic is the absence of a vaccine against the disease, so this regime can last until it appears. For example, the SARS pandemic lasted seven months, said Galina Kozhevnikova, head of the Department of Infectious Diseases of the RUDN University.
- In a pandemic, each country independently decides which quarantine measures to introduce. In Russia, from the very beginning, there were very strict restrictions, therefore, unlike other countries, we have isolated cases, - the expert noted.
The most effective measure to combat the spread of infection is isolation, the associate professor of the Department of Infectious Diseases in Children of the Russian National Research Medical University named after N. I. Pirogov Ivan Konovalov.
- In European countries, there were no particular borders and there are no, that's why we are now seeing such a spread of infection. And Russia can afford to introduce isolation measures,”he said. - Reducing the number of imported cases will reduce the rate of spread of infection, will allow medical institutions to better prepare for isolation measures, quickly diagnose and treat with quality.
The long-awaited decision
Infectious disease specialist Anna Oreshkova, in an interview with, noted that WHO had delayed for a long time with the announcement of a pandemic. The director of the Institute of Medical Parasitology, Tropical and Vector-borne Diseases named after V. I. E. I. Martsinovsky Sechenov University Alexander Lukashev.
“Already on February 25, it was clear that a pandemic was inevitable,” he said. - This was indicated by the spread of the virus, the increase in incidence, the lack of measures to prevent the epidemic, which some countries, such as Italy, began to take only two days ago.
In Europe and the USA, according to the expert, “completely inadequate measures” were also taken. And in Iran, the virus has completely affected part of the power structures - this suggests that it is very common among the ordinary population.
Meanwhile, eight new cases of COVID-19 have been registered in Russia over the past day: six patients in Moscow and two in the Moscow region, Rospotrebnadzor said on Wednesday. The total number of infected people in the country has reached 28.
The operational headquarters recommended to the federal executive authorities and regional leaders to reduce the number of mass events and, if possible, to hold them in video format or without spectators. Officials were also offered to refuse foreign business trips if they are not urgent or do not relate to the execution of the president's instructions.
The measures that are now being taken in Russia, Anna Oreshkova called "not superfluous." The expert also noted that the number of officially announced cases of infection with the new coronavirus in Russia are not true figures.
- Of course, there are many more cases, and not only in our country. If we are completely critical of the measures taken, then epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists agree that a lot has been done wrong and at the wrong time. The Russians continued to travel abroad for too long, and transit flights continued, she said.
According to experts' forecasts, despite all the measures taken, the coronavirus will circulate within the country, at least until the summer.
- My personal forecast is as follows: the coronavirus will spread with a peak in April-May and a break for the summer, - said Pavel Volchkov. - Further, I hope we can defeat COVID-19. That is, to prevent his return in the fall.
The spread of the coronavirus depends on many factors, Aleksadr Lukashev noted.
- First, we do not have very reliable statistics for many countries. Second, most states are unlikely to take the same measures as China. Thirdly, we do not know how much the spread of the virus depends on the climate, - he stressed.
Black Thursday
Due to the announcement of the pandemic, the stock markets will have to go through "Black Thursday", said the head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artyom Deev. According to him, there is no doubt that the fall will be a record one. For the economy, this means the onset of a global crisis, which will be difficult to compare in scale with all previous ones.
The WHO declared the spread of the coronavirus a pandemic on Wednesday, when the US market was still trading. If before this message the Dow Jones, S & P-500 and NASDAQ were losing 3% each, then after the WHO statement they sharply rushed down: at 20:15 Moscow time the indices fell by about 5%.
In an unfavorable scenario, the American stock market could collapse by 35% from January highs, predicted the head of the Luxembourg office of the consulting KRK Group Nikita Ryabinin.
The stock exchanges will be covered by a massive sale, which will not bypass oil either, noted Evgeny Nadorshin, chief economist of the consulting company PF Capital. According to him, the price war in the "black gold" market, provoked by the spread of the coronavirus and the collapse of the OPEC + deal, will lead to a sharp drop in commodity prices - to $ 20 per barrel (on Wednesday, Brent oil cost $ 36 per barrel).
With a strong decline in oil prices, the national currency will fall in price, analysts say - the rate may go below 75 rubles / $ and, probably, even below 80 rubles / $.
The announcement of a pandemic can slow the growth of the world economy to a level close to 1%, believes the chief analyst of BCS Premier Anton Pokatovich. For both developing and some developed countries, pressure can become a driver of transition of their economies into recession, he stressed.
Against the background of the situation with COVID-19, the growth of Russian GDP this year may reach 1.5-1.7% against the projected 2%, said Alexander Shirov, deputy director of the Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Tourism, air travel and industry have already suffered from the spread of the coronavirus, said Finam analyst Alexei Korenev. In most business contracts, the danger of a pandemic is spelled out as a “force majeure circumstance”, according to which obligations may not be fully fulfilled. And this will lead to the bankruptcy of insurance companies that acted as guarantors for the transactions, the expert explained. According to him, the measures of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank to support the ruble exchange rate may hit the budget.
The sky is closing
Against the background of WHO's statements, the operational headquarters to prevent the importation and spread of coronavirus in Russia decided to limit air traffic with Italy, Germany, Spain and France from March 13. These countries have joined the stop list, which previously included China, South Korea and Iran.
Only Aeroflot will operate regular flights to these countries. Rome, Berlin, Paris, Munich and Frankfurt am Main, as well as Madrid and Barcelona will be open for flights. All flights will be operated from Terminal F of Sheremetyevo Airport - the only air harbor that today accepts aircraft from countries with limited air traffic.
Charter carriers were allowed to temporarily keep flights to Italy, Germany, Spain and France - but only in order to take out Russian tourists.
Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the AviaPort agency, considers the current situation with flight restrictions to be very risky for Russian air carriers. It is aggravated by the low season. This year, amid the coronavirus outbreak, the depth of bookings is gradually decreasing - people are transferring overseas trips, he said. According to the expert, this will inevitably lead to an increase in losses and the withdrawal of weak players from the market.
Previously, the losses of airlines only from the closure of China were estimated by the Ministry of Transport at 1.6 billion rubles, carriers called the figure twice as much. Sources in Rosturizm and ATOR noted that due to the threat of COVID-2019 travel agencies had to cancel tours to Italy, China, South Korea and Iran worth about 2 billion rubles, of which the cost of non-refundable tickets was about 1-1.4 billion.
Aleksey Kalachev, an analyst at Finam, believes that with the closure of popular European destinations, carrier losses will grow significantly.
Tourists who have already bought a ticket to the aforementioned countries are allowed by Russian airlines to return them or change the date and direction without penalties. But some charge a service fee for this - from 500 to 1000 rubles.
Valeria Nodelman, Yaroslava Kostenko, Elena Sidorenko, Ekaterina Yasakova, Anna Urmantseva, Tatiana Bochkareva, Natalia Ilyina, Roza Almakunova, Vadim Arapov, Alexander Volobuev worked on the material