On the eve of the First World War, one of the analytical reviews of German intelligence said that Russia was developing at a record pace and by 1917 "it will be impossible to defeat this country." However, waiting for 1917 was unprofitable not only for Germany, but also for the countries that were considered allies of Russia. And then Nicholas II was dragged into the war.
In fact, the threat of a world war and the fact that this war will begin in the Balkans has been talked about since at least 1912, when a war really flared up there, although it is still a regional one. Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia and Montenegro, formerly subservient to the Turks, together beat the former metropolis. The following year, three partners, with the assistance of Turks and Romanians, beat Bulgaria.
We are ready?
Small Balkan states enjoyed the patronage of the great powers. Serbia and Montenegro were among the Russian clients, and there were serious fears that, having started a quarrel with their neighbors, they would be drawn into the conflict and Russia. Then Austria or Germany would have stood up for Turkey or Bulgaria, and the war would really have spread to all of Europe.
In St. Petersburg, such a development of events was feared. Threatening potential opponents, in February 1914, Minister of War Vladimir Sukhomlinov issued a warning article "We are ready."
But by summer, the storm clouds seemed to dissipate.
However, Europe was pregnant with war.
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Speaking about its causes, historians usually blame two opposing alliances: the Entente (Russia, England, France, later Italy, the United States and others) and the so-called "central powers" (Germany, Austria-Hungary, later Turkey and Bulgaria).
But not everyone wanted this war equally. And Russia in 1914 did not want it at all.
The most serious conflict was between Berlin and London. Germany wanted to destroy British domination at sea and in the world economy. Paris could not come to terms with the loss of Alsace and Lorraine, annexed by Germany in 1871. Austria feared the strengthening of Russia in the Balkans.
An even greater role was played by a secret force, which can be conditionally dubbed the "Golden International". We are talking about international financial and industrial groups, which have become the prototype of today's transnational corporations. Until the beginning of the 20th century, England was their base, and after the First World War, the United States.
In fact, throughout the reign of Nicholas II, there was a tough economic struggle, during which the Golden International tried to subdue the Russian economy, bringing the country down to the level of a semi-colony and a raw material appendage (like China, Turkey or Persia). Weapons were used both economic (foreign loans, trade tariffs, stock exchange attacks), and ideological (press), and the most real. All sorts of Socialist-Revolutionaries, Bolsheviks, anarchists were armed with them. The world war was to be the decisive attack on the Romanov empire. But such a war required a pretext.
The Black Hand case
Since Russia was intended to be a victim, the script was drawn up in such a way that the tsar had no chance to get off the hook. At the same time, factors were taken into account both of a personal nature (concepts of duty, patriotism) and the special relationship that linked Russia with Serbia.
Strategically, the Serbs dreamed of uniting all the southern Slavs, but they planned to start with Bosnia and Herzegovina, which was inhabited by about a third of Orthodox compatriots, about a third by Croatian Catholics and another third by Muslim Slavs. Previously, the region belonged to Turkey, and in 1908 it was annexed by Austria.
In Serbia, annexations were outraged, but they did not dare to challenge Austria on their own. Russia, on the other hand, was recovering from the shocks of the Russo-Japanese War and the 1905 Revolution, and her voice meant little.
In general, King Peter I Karageorgievich and his prime minister Nikola Pasic wore off, but they did not give up their beautiful dream, deciding not to interfere with those who tried to make it come true.
These people, united in the "Black Hand" organization, were headed by the Colonel of the Serbian army Dragutin Dimitrievich, who received the nickname Apis (in honor of the sacred bull in Ancient Egypt) for his plump heroic appearance.
From supporters of the creation of a unified Yugoslavian state living in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the organization "Mlada Bosna" was created, which, by the way, included not only Serbs, but also Croats and Muslims. Experienced comrades from the "Black Hand" took patronage over the young Bosnians and began to prepare the assassination of one of the highest leaders of Austria-Hungary. Emperor Franz Joseph himself, then the chairman of the land government of Bosnia and Herzegovina, General Oskar Potiorek, was considered as a possible victim. But they settled on the heir to the Austrian throne, Archduke Franz Ferdinand.
This candidacy could have been suggested to Apis by everyone who was interested in the war - the Germans, the British, the French, and even the Austrians, from those circles to whom Franz Ferdinand was unsympathetic and who dreamed of the annexation of Serbia.
In any case, the Austrian police did everything to prevent Franz Ferdinand from getting out of Sarajevo alive.
Shots fired in Sarajevo
After the well-announced arrival of the Archduke to the city, he and his wife went on a car tour.
The first of the militants deployed along the proposed route, Nedelko Chabrinovich, threw a grenade that bounced off the convertible top of the car and exploded, injuring about 20 spectators. The assailant swallowed a pill with poison and jumped into the river, but the poison was weak, and the police pulled Chabrinovich out of the water, after which the crowd beat him.
The walk around the city should have been curtailed, but the Archduke was asked to visit in the hospital those who had suffered from the explosion of a grenade thrown at him. Of course, it was impossible to refuse without losing face.
And the car drove to the hospital, with the most risky route: along a narrow street where another militant, Gavrila Princip, was located.
Stepping forward, he fired two pistol shots from a distance of one and a half meters. The first bullet fatally wounded the Archduke, the second hit Countess Chotek in the stomach. Princip was arrested on the spot.
The assassination of the Archduke by Gavrila Princip was the pretext for anti-Serb pogroms. But this was a trifle compared to the grandiose pogrom that awaited Europe.
Murder in Sarajevo launched wars and revolutions that changed the old world
Hinder to remove
On July 10, 1914, the envoy of Russia in Belgrade, Nikolai Gartwig, in a conversation with his Austrian colleague Baron Gisl, urged Vienna to refrain from aggressive actions, painted the disasters of a pan-European war, which was equally dangerous for the Romanovs and the Habsburgs. And … as a result, he died of a heart attack.
And 13 days later, having enlisted the support of Berlin, the Austrians presented the Serbs with a 10-point ultimatum (from the banning of newspapers hostile to Austria to the dismissal of specific military personnel and officials).
Serbia cried out for help to Russia, but Nicholas II could not even contact his main ally, French President Raymond Poincaré, since he had left Russia the day before (where he was on an official visit) and was now on a steamer at sea.
On the advice of Russia, the Serbs accepted the ultimatum, with the exception of one point - the admission of the Austrian police to participate in the investigation on their territory. The Austrians found the answer unsatisfactory and on July 28, 1914 declared war on Serbia.
This raises the question of why leaders who had previously shown reasonable restraint during the Bosnian (1908) and Moroccan crises (1911) were now literally rushing into battle?
The motives were as follows:
The Kaiser knew that by 1917 Russia would complete its rearmament program and that it would be almost impossible to defeat it. In addition, he counted on the neutrality of England; France understood that if Russia was defeated, it would become the next victim of Germany; England understood that in a few years the Germans would have a fleet equal to the British. Therefore, we must fight now, while we can still count on Russia and France.
And only Russia acted altruistically, although it was guided by considerations of prestige, helping the Slavic brothers.
To understand the course of further events, it must be borne in mind that this was the height of the summer season, when many of the characters able to prevent the impending war were on vacation. As a rule, it took them time to return and grasp the essence of the events taking place.
Sometimes they were taken out of the game in the most brutal and effective way.
Grigory Rasputin, who had influence over the tsar and especially the tsarina, was categorically against the war with Germany and even seemed to say to the autocrat: “You cannot fight a German! A German is a useful person, hard-working. Moreover, Grigory Efimovich boasted that if he was in the capital, he would not have allowed war in any case.
But at the right moment he was not in Petersburg. He went to his native village of Pokrovskoye, where he was stabbed with a knife by the mentally ill Khionia Guseva. She did not clearly state the essence of her claims to the "elder". The mentally ill are generally ideal objects for manipulation and blind use.
In France, the anti-war party was led by the popular socialist Jean Jaures, but in the midst of the chauvinist campaign he was shot by a "hurray-patriot".
The avalanche started
On July 29, 1914, Germany sent notes to France and Russia.
Paris received a warning that "the military preparations that France is about to start are forcing Germany to declare a state of threat of war." That is, they were going to punish France with a war for what it seemed to be "going" to do.
Russia was required to curtail any military preparations against Austria on the grounds that they pose a danger to Germany as well. And this was true, since the troops of the Warsaw Military District were put on alert, covering both the Russian-Austrian and Russian-German borders.
The tsar knew about this collision, as well as that in Russia the mobilization would take about 30 days - twice as long as in Germany, Austria or France. The Germans, clinging to Russia and interceding for Austria-Hungary, were preparing to strike the first blow at the Russian ally France.
On July 31, 1914, Nicholas II authorized the introduction of general mobilization. Chief of the General Staff Nikolai Yanushkevich found out about this by phone and began to send appropriate orders to the troops. The device connecting him directly with the emperor, he broke, fearing that the king would change his mind.
The French theoretically had the opportunity to sit out, but on July 31, the Kaiser demanded that they completely curtail military preparations, and someone helpful, probably from the "fighters of the invisible front", also published a draft version of the German note, according to which, to demonstrate their peacefulness, the French had to give the Germans had two fortresses as a pledge. The French, upon learning of this, roared with indignation.
The German ultimatum delivered at midnight on August 1 by the German Ambassador Pourtales to the Russian Foreign Minister Sazonov was even cooler: "If Russia does not demobilize by 12 noon on August 1, Germany will be fully mobilized." Sazonov asked if this meant war. Pourtales answered evasively: "No, but we are close to her."
At noon, a second meeting took place, and the agitated Pourtales handed Sazonov two prepared versions of a note with official declarations of war at once. From their comparison it followed that, regardless of the Russian answer, the Germans were still going to fight.
And against the background of these events, trying to delay the time required for the concentration of armies, Kaiser Wilhelm II sent reassuring telegrams to his cousin Nicholas II. Only on August 1, he announced that he was "forced to wage war," and that he himself was "pure before God." And immediately the Kaiser sent another telegram, where he expressed the hope that the Russian troops would not cross the border. In St. Petersburg, of course, they were surprised, but they did not continue the comedy with correspondence.
At this time, the main forces of the Germans were already moving towards France, which, in accordance with Schlieffen's plan, should have been defeated before the completion of the mobilization of Russia.
On August 3, Germany declared war on France, accusing her of aerial bombardments of her cities, which was not even in sight.
On August 4, a large-scale German invasion of Belgium began, which forced England to join the fight, since it was about the opposite coast of the English Channel. The hesitation and hazy speeches of British politicians played a fatal role, since the Kaiser's cockiness was explained by his hope that Albion would refrain from participating in the battle.
And only a day later, as if remembering where, in fact, it all began, Austria-Hungary declared war on Russia. This war was the last for both empires.