On the agenda in recent months is exclusively the coronavirus and ways to combat it, but an equally important and exciting topic is when the pandemic of a new infection may end.
The coronavirus pandemic swept the whole world, and in all countries, without exception, they take maximum measures and do everything possible to defeat the infection. Scientists are working on a vaccine, doctors are saving COVID-19 patients, and authorities are making efforts to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2, or at least slow down the transmission of the virus as much as possible. The only problem is that no one can say for sure when the pandemic will end.
The World Health Organization (WHO) notes that the coronavirus has become a new infection and so far it has not been sufficiently studied to be able to confidently declare the timing of victory over it, and in addition to the effectiveness of the work of scientists, much will depend on the behavior of ordinary citizens.
The main problem was the frivolity of SARS-CoV-2 at the beginning of the pandemic. The outbreak of infection in China did not force to take measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus in other countries of the world, and when the fight against COVID-19 began in Europe and the United States, it was too late. The authorities have been slow to impose restrictions on how people interact with each other, and the media has often stated that the new infection is not that dangerous. Together, this led to a rapid increase in the number of infected, overloading the medical system and high mortality. At the same time, China, which "gave" the world the coronavirus, has already recovered from the infection - a few dozen people all over the country have new cases.
This was achieved due to strict quarantine, when entire cities and provinces were isolated, and the movement of people and their interaction with each other was as limited as possible. As a result, it took China about 2-3 months to deal with the coronavirus and gradually begin to return to normal life. How quickly a similar process will proceed in other countries is a question that does not have an unambiguous answer.
According to experts, the development of a vaccine against coronavirus will take at least six months, but rather even more time, taking into account not only the creation of a medicine, but also the necessary tests and the start of mass production. According to former Microsoft CEO Bill Gates, and now co-owner of a charity that is developing a vaccine for COVID-19, the drug will not be ready until a year or two. All this time, it is necessary to contain the spread of infection, and for this it is important to observe self-isolation and comply with all the requirements of the authorities.
Taking into account the available forecasts, the peak of the coronavirus epidemic in Russia may pass by the end of May - the beginning of June, but most likely it will be blurred, given that the situation in different cities is different and it is impossible to give a general forecast. It is also important to take into account that somewhere self-isolation measures are being tightened, but somewhere on the contrary, concessions are gradually being introduced and all this affects the spread of SARS-CoV-2. At the same time, the passage of the peak of the epidemic does not at all mean that the infection will be defeated.
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History shows that it usually takes about six months to study a new virus, and another six months to create experimental drugs, but during this time countries pass the peak of the spread of infection. The coronavirus is no exception, because people are already recovering without existing drugs for COVID-19. But it is important to understand that no accurate predictions can be made - there are too many factors that affect the spread of infection.
The optimistic forecast implies that by June 2020 the situation in Russia and in the world around the coronavirus will be relatively normalized, which will ease the restrictions. But it is unlikely that before the end of summer - the beginning of autumn, it will be possible to completely return to the usual life. It is possible that restrictions for certain categories of people (for example, the elderly) will remain until the end of the year.
A more restrained forecast of specialists assumes life with coronavirus until the end of 2020, and there either the infection itself will fade away, or a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will be invented, or people will receive massive immunity after having been ill with COVID-19. Moreover, the creation and production of an effective vaccine can take up to one and a half years.
The most pessimistic forecast suggests that it will not be possible to defeat the coronavirus until the Chinese scenario (a sharp rise in the sick and then a decline) is repeated by all major countries of the world. Since the situation in each state develops according to its own scenario, it can drag on for a long time. The problem is that infection, the manifestation of the first symptoms of the disease, seeking medical help and confirmation of COVID-19 are spaced apart in time, and this complicates the understanding of the real situation with the development of the pandemic.
No mathematical models are able to give an accurate forecast at the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, because it is impossible to take into account the huge number of factors that affect the spread of coronavirus. All scientists agree that SARS-CoV-2 will retreat. How quickly will depend on how the population begins to comply with the requirements of the authorities and the recommendations of specialists, and on how effective the work on finding a vaccine will be. If the containment measures are loosened too early, then a second wave of the spread of the coronavirus is quite real. Another question is whether SARS-CoV-2 mutates during this time so seriously that another pandemic will begin and everything will have to start all over again, but still, scientists consider such a scenario to be unlikely.
Oleg Petrov