A new United Nations (UN) report on global demographic change says the world's population will increase to 10.9 billion by the end of this century. At the same time, by 2050, the world's population may increase by 2 billion people, amounting to 9.7 billion. According to the UN forecast, 50% of the total population growth in the next three decades will come from nine countries - India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States.
There will be more poor people in the world
For example, the population of Nigeria from the current 200 million people, according to experts' forecasts, will grow to 700 million people by 2100, which will make the country the third largest in the world.
UN experts believe that India will be able to overtake China and take the first place in the world in terms of population in 2027. The population of tropical Africa will double by 2050.
Why has the growth of the world's population slowed down?
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In general, researchers note a decline in global fertility rates. If at the beginning of the 20th century there were on average 6 newborns per woman, by 1990 this figure had already dropped to 3.2, and according to the latest data - to 2.5. According to forecasts, this indicator will continue to decline over the coming decades and by 2050 will be 2.2, by 2100 - 1.9, which will indicate a decline in the world's population by the next century. The report states that the aging of the population leads to a decrease in the number of people of working age, which leads to serious problems related to the social security of the elderly and the payment of pensions.
The report also notes an increase in the number of countries in which there is a decrease in population, which is associated primarily with a drop in fertility. By 2050, 55 countries will have a population decline of at least 1%. Among them are Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Population of Russia by 2050
Russia's population is projected to shrink to 135.8 million on average by 2050. If we proceed from the pessimistic forecast of the UN, then the number of Russia by the middle of the century will drop to 124.6 million people. According to the optimistic forecast, it will be 147.2 million people. By 2078, the population of Russia, according to the pessimistic forecast, may decline to 99.7 million people, according to the optimistic one - to grow to 160 million. The average median value for 2078 for Russia is, according to the UN forecast, 127.4 million people.
Nikolay Khizhnyak