So the pandemic is declining. At least, its first wave, and in any case, in Russia. After reaching the plateau, reached by mid-May, every day we see a smaller number of new cases of COVID-19 infection, and most importantly, a continuously decreasing mortality rate. Importantly, this was done without overloading the existing medical facilities. In other words, in hospitals there were unused beds, and in cities - deployed hospitals that were never needed. There was also no shortage of resuscitation equipment, first of all, ventilators.
Will Russia and the CIS cope with the economic consequences of the epidemic?
And this despite the fact that for many decades we have been taught that domestic medicine is no good. How did it happen that this very "lousy" system showed a mortality rate of 1.5% (and even then, taking into account the frankly disadvantaged regions!), While "excellent" British medicine gives 13%, and the number of deaths from coronavirus in the United States has already exceeded American losses in the First World War?
The answer is obvious - at the national level, no vaunted Western medicine exists, but there is a huge information bubble that has been inflating for many decades, exactly the same as in the field of "exemplary European democracy" or "a thriving American economy." The first bubble has already burst, the other two are on the way, and this is an objective process, since after the pandemic the world has changed and has changed irreversibly. It took only a few months for the economies of the leading Western countries to find themselves in a monstrous state with very unclear prospects.
Yes, Russia also suffered, but much less. Even the expected devaluation, which the opposition media reveled in, turned out to be a short-lived phenomenon, after which the ruble returned to the "pre-coronavirus" corridor. There is also no explosive growth in unemployment. It cannot be said that our country came out of the pandemic without any losses at all, but they are really minimal.
Unfortunately, other post-Soviet states did much worse. In this case, we are not even talking about Ukraine, which is rapidly heading towards economic and legal disintegration. No, we are interested in the CIS countries. It is already clear that most of them by the end of the year will experience very serious problems in the areas of inflation, industrial production and the stability of national currencies. As a consequence of all this - unemployment, falling GDP and a growing budget deficit.
We will not dwell on the reasons, they are known. It is hardly worth being cunning and denying the fact that in many countries of the Commonwealth we are witnessing ossified authoritarian regimes that are unable to respond flexibly and in a timely manner to current challenges. It's like that. But there is also another reason. It is the post-Soviet space that has been subjected to continuous information and economic interventions for the past 30 years, aimed at undermining economic independence and social well-being.
Transcaucasia and Central Asia are, in fact, too tidbit for our foreign "partners" to calmly watch as Russia integrates it into new supranational associations. And now, after the pandemic, Moscow's position has only strengthened. As soon as the first signs of an epidemic appeared, our country immediately began to provide active assistance to the countries of the Commonwealth. So, in early April, 500 ventilators were sent to Uzbekistan.
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Just as there were no unimportant or secondary regions or republics within Russia itself, there could not be unimportant or secondary countries within the CIS. And now, when the pandemic itself is being replaced by a powerful economic crisis, it's time to decide whether we have the right to fence ourselves off and pretend that this does not concern us?
If so, then we must be clear about the further consequences. It is no secret that the CIS countries at all levels are penetrated by agents of influence of numerous foreign funds, and this is not only about Western funds. Yes, of course, politicians and journalists lobbying the interests of such structures as the World Bank, IMF, USAID are most active in the post-Soviet space, but they are not limited to them. Chinese organizations, aimed at aggressive economic expansion, and Islamic foundations (primarily Turkish, Qatari and Saudi), whose goal is the civilizational separation of Central Asia from Russia with the prospective further spread of destructive activities to Muslim republics within the Russian Federation, are also actively working.
Already, these organizations and media activists affiliated with them are conducting an active information campaign aimed at discrediting any assistance that Moscow provides to the Commonwealth countries. Thus, if we declare that the problems of the republics of Transcaucasia and Central Asia no longer concern us, then we should not be surprised that within a few months this region will be completely intercepted by alien and frankly hostile powers towards the Russian World.
What all this will lead to in the short term is quite obvious. Against the backdrop of structural economic problems, foreign funds will very quickly buy up falling assets, which will entail a revision of established economic ties and a breakdown of technological chains passing through Russia. This threatens even greater unemployment and the likely collapse of the most unstable regimes. As for labor migration, its flows will only increase, while its carriers will undergo even greater radicalization.
If we believe that the Commonwealth is not an empty phrase and not only an instrument of influence, but also a great responsibility, then, whether we like it or not, we must take part in solving the problems that these states face. Of course, no one is proposing to support the post-Soviet republics by flooding their own mistakes with streams of free loans. But there are other methods, good, the mechanisms developed within the framework of the CIS and the EAEU make it possible to coordinate joint efforts and direct economic assistance where it is most needed. Ultimately, such support always pays off, but its absence will not win back.