Perhaps soon we will finally find out why the Maya abandoned their striking white-stone cities about a thousand years ago, the BBC Earth columnist hopes.
In 1517, the Spanish conquistadors traveled to Central America, intending to conquer the local Mayan civilization. However, upon reaching the site, the colonialists found that much of this work had already been done for them.
Tall limestone structures - a classic urban landscape of one of the most highly developed societies of the ancient world - were already losing ground under the onslaught of the jungle.
The question of how the Mayan civilization met its end remains one of the most curious mysteries of world history.
The Mayans survived and even managed to resist European rule for a long time.
But by the time the Spaniards landed on the coast, the political and economic power of the nation, which erected the famous pyramids and numbered at one time two million people, had dried up.
At a high stage of development
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The first Mayan settlements appeared in the first millennium BC, and this civilization reached its heyday around 600 AD (in the chronology of the development of Mesoamerica, the Mayan culture occupies an intermediate position between the earlier Olmec and later Aztec civilizations).
Archaeologists have discovered thousands of ancient Mayan cities in the Yucatan Peninsula in southern Mexico, as well as Belize and Guatemala.
It is possible that ruins of other Mayan cities are hidden in the dense thicket of the rainforest.
Thanks to serious archaeological research over a period of approximately two hundred years, we know enough about the Maya to appreciate their impressive achievements.
Their particular style in art and architecture bears witness to the great skill of this people.
In addition, the Maya were at a fairly high level of intellectual development. They were well versed in mathematics and astronomy and applied this knowledge in the construction of their pyramids and temples, correlating them with planetary precession and solar eclipses.
In addition, the Maya used the only known script in the history of Mesoamerica - a set of strange squiggles called Mayan hieroglyphs.
The amazing Mayan heritage shrouds the history of this nation with a veil of mystery. But the mystery of the collapse of this civilization is no less curious.
Victim of a massive disaster
Let's start with what we already know. Around AD 850, after several centuries of prosperity and domination, the Maya began to leave their magnificent cities - one after another.
In less than two hundred years, not a trace of the former glory of this civilization has remained. Later, there were sporadic bursts of revival, but the Mayan golden age was forever.
In addition to the colossal scale of the decline, it is interesting that over several decades of scrupulous research, archaeologists have not come to a consensus about its cause.
As in the case of the Roman Empire, there were probably several such reasons. However, the nature of what happened leads some scientists to the idea that the Mayan civilization was the victim of a large-scale catastrophe that could sweep city after city on its way.
There are many theories to explain the collapse of the Mayan civilization. Among the most widespread versions are called invasion, civil war, destruction of trade routes.
However, since the first data from meteorological studies of ancient Central America were collected in the early 1990s, the theory that the Mayan civilization was doomed to death due to significant climate change has gained particular popularity.
During the several centuries immediately preceding the Mayan collapse - this period from 250 to 800 AD is called classic - the ancient civilization flourished.
The cities prospered, the land gave a good harvest. Data from meteorological studies (mostly derived from the analysis of cave formations) show that relatively heavy rain fell in areas inhabited by the Maya Indians at that time.
But according to the same data, starting from about 820 AD for 95 years, these areas were periodically hit by a severe drought, sometimes lasting up to several decades.
Since this prolonged drought became known, scientists have begun to notice a surprisingly clear relationship between the time of its onset and the decline of civilization: most of the Mayan cities of the classical era were deserted between 850 and 925 AD, which quite accurately coincides with the dry age.
And although in order to unequivocally confirm this theory, a simple correlation is not enough, such a coincidence led many experts to believe that climate change in the 9th century could somehow provoke the death of an ancient civilization.
However, graceful as this explanation may be, one fact prevents it from unconditionally accepting it: although most Mayan cities were empty with the onset of drought, some still managed to survive.
The cities, deserted in the dry 9th century, were located mainly in the south of the Mayan territory - in what is now Belize and Guatemala.
However, closer to the north, on the Yucatan Peninsula, the Mayan civilization not only survived the drought, but also flourished again after its end.
While the Mayan civilization began to fade in the south, relative prosperity was observed in the north, the number of prosperous cities grew, including one of the greatest - Chichen Itza (one of the "new wonders of the world").
This revival of the Mayan culture in the north contradicts the theory of the death of this civilization due to drought: as opponents of this idea argue, if climate change permanently undermined the power of the south, why did it not affect the north?
Scientists have put forward many explanations for this striking contrast between north and south, but no theory has ever been found to be reliable.
However, a new discovery has recently been made that sheds light on this long-standing conundrum.
The North also got
Determining dates is a major challenge for archaeologists studying Maya culture.
Almost not a single written monument of this civilization, which once numbered in the thousands, has survived to this day - most of them died in the era of colonization, when, on the orders of Catholic priests, the Spaniards burned Mayan books indiscriminately, and now, as far as is known, there are only four of them left.
Therefore, scientists determine the time of the prosperity of the ancient Mayan cities solely by calendar notes on stone monuments, by the style of decorative ceramics and by the results of radiocarbon analysis of organic materials.
The approximate ages of the major urban centers in the north of the Mayan territory have already been determined in previous studies; at the same time it was found that the northerners were able to survive the drought that hit these areas in the 9th century.
However, until recently, all of this data has never been summarized in one study.
This generalization is important in that it allows us to consider the northern areas inhabited by the Maya as a whole and helps scientists to identify general trends in their rise and fall.
In the study, the results of which were published in December, American and British archaeologists for the first time compared all the estimated data on the age of urban centers in the northern lands of the Maya: about two hundred dates relating to settlements located throughout the Yucatan Peninsula, half of which were obtained from the study of carved in the stone of calendar marks, and half - by radiocarbon analysis.
Then the researchers came up with general information about the times when the Mayan cities were actively developing and when each of them fell into decay.
The results of this analysis significantly change our understanding of when, and perhaps even how the Mayan civilization met its end.
Contrary to the prevailing belief, during the drought, the north also experienced a decline - moreover, it happened twice.
In the second half of the 9th century, the number of calendar records carved in stone decreased by 70%.
Similar evidence of decline is seen in radiocarbon analysis of materials collected in the northern Maya regions, indicating that the construction of wooden structures during this period also declined.
It is important to note that it was during this period that the lack of rain is believed to have destroyed the Mayan civilization in the south - obviously, the northerners also had a difficult time surviving the drought.
According to scientists, this decline in creative activity indicates that political and social collapse was brewing in the north.
Of course, the north in the 9th century did not have such a hard time as the south, but judging by this new information, it suffered great damage.
This period of decline in the north has previously passed unnoticed, mainly due to the lack of a clear evidence base: a decline in construction activity, even on such a large scale, is not easy to detect without conducting such a comprehensive study throughout the region.
Drought, severe drought and mega-drought
Information about the decline of the north in the 9th century marks a new intriguing turn in the history of the Maya, which, nevertheless, does not change its essence: after all, we already knew that the northern regions managed to survive the arid 9th century - Chichen Itza and others the centers developed successfully in the 10th century.
But the information about the second period of decline, identified by a group of scientists, is already changing our understanding of the history of the Maya.
After a brief resurgence of civilization in the 10th century (which, interestingly, coincided with an increase in rainfall), scientists note another decline in construction in a number of areas of the northern Mayan territory: between 1000 and 1075 AD, construction of stone and other materials fell by almost half. …
Moreover, scientists have found that, as during the previous crisis two hundred years earlier, the decline of the Maya in the 11th century occurred amid severe drought.
And not just strong. In the 9th century, the drought was undoubtedly severe. But the 11th century brought the worst drought in two thousand years - the "mega-drought".
After a brief revival in the north, there was a new decline in construction - again against the backdrop of a severe drought.
Data from meteorological studies show that during most of the century, between 1020 and 1100, precipitation decreased sharply.
This period coincides remarkably well with archaeological dates for the decline of the northern Mayan settlements.
One coincidence alone means little. But when the second coincidence occurs, even skeptics start to wonder about causation.
The "mega-drought" of the 11th century was previously blamed for the death of the northern Maya culture, but the dating methods used then gave ambiguous results and did not allow us to accurately determine whether these events really happened simultaneously.
The comprehensive analysis, published in December, enables us to state with much greater certainty that climate change coincided with not even one but two periods of dramatic decline of the Mayan civilization.
If the first wave of droughts destroyed the Mayan settlements in the south, then the second, apparently, brought death to their northern territories.
After this second wave of droughts, the Maya civilization was no longer destined to recover.
Chichen Itza and other major urban centers in the north never regained their former strength.
There are several small but noteworthy settlements that escaped this fate - such as the northern city of Mayapan, which flourished in the 13th-15th centuries - but they could not be compared with the classical Mayan cities in terms of scope or pretentiousness.
We can say that in the XI century this ancient civilization breathed its last.
Given these results, it seems even more likely that climate change played an important role in the death of the Mayan civilization. But how?
Crop failures and political instability
Most of the archaeological evidence of decline is associated with agriculture.
As in all major civilizations, the economic potential of the Maya was highly dependent on the harvest - and the labor force needed food.
The simplest explanation for the Mayan decline is that the drought caused the harvest to decline every year, and this may have led to a gradual decline in Mayan political influence and total social decay.
But even supporters of this hypothesis admit that most likely not everything was so simple.
“We know that even before the onset of drought in the 9th century, the Mayan territory had increased the frequency of war and increased socio-political instability,” says Julie Hoggart, a researcher at Baylor University in the Texas city of Waco (USA) and one of the leaders of the study of climatic factors, results which were published in December.
Conflict between cities is also a good way to destroy civilization; it is quite possible that the Maya simply killed each other in civil strife.
But in this case, the question of drought and coinciding dates still remains open. So, perhaps we are simply dealing with the simultaneous influence of two factors.
During the dry decades, food supplies declined, which likely led to an exacerbation of the struggle for resources, which could eventually reach its climax and lead to an irreversible split of the ancient Mayan civilization.
However, there is at least one other explanation that has nothing to do with wars.
A victim of your own talents
Perhaps the Maya were doomed not by strife, but by their own talents, because the Maya were not only great artisans, but also real sculptors of nature.
To provide food for their millions of people, the Maya constructed gigantic canal systems hundreds of kilometers long to drain and raise the barren swampy soils and transform them into new arable land (some archaeologists call them "floating gardens").
In addition, the Maya cut down huge tracts of forest to make way for agricultural land and the construction of new cities.
Some scientists believe that with such an active influence on nature, the Maya could themselves have a hand in their death, in some way aggravating the consequences of natural climate change.
For example, according to a number of researchers, deforestation for clearing land for farming could become an additional factor in soil dehydration, as a result of which the loss of agricultural products during a drought was even greater.
Another indirect consequence of the Maya's agricultural advances could be simply overpopulation, making the people more susceptible to prolonged periods of food shortages and diminishing their survivability in drought conditions.
Gone to the water
Whatever the cause - or reasons - of the Mayan decline, we do know something about the fate of the people who survived the collapse of civilization and saw its consequences.
Beginning in about 1050 AD, the Mayans began to embark on a journey. They left the inland lands where their ancestors flourished and headed in droves towards the Caribbean coast or other sources of water, such as rare lakes and sinkholes that gleam in the dense greenery of the former Mayan territory.
Perhaps the exodus of the Maya was caused by famine.
If, after the drought of the 9th and 11th centuries, yields did indeed decline, it may have made more sense to move closer to the water to be able to enjoy seafood or to cultivate less arid coastal lands.
One way or another, they clearly strove for life-giving moisture.
However, it has always been so. One of the duties of the Maya rulers was to communicate with the gods in order to make them rain and a good harvest.
In various places of residence of the Maya, archaeologists extract from the bottom of lakes and karst sinkholes, which were considered the gateway to the underworld, human bones - dark proof that the Maya resorted to sacrifices to appease their gods.
When the rains were heavy and civilization flourished, they probably felt that their prayers were answered.