Time is fleeting. And with age, it starts to go even faster. What seemed like an eternity at 8 years old seems like five minutes at the threshold of eighty. Today, the average life expectancy in different countries of the world varies from 83 years in Japan to 48 years in Burundi (Africa). In Russia, the average life expectancy, according to various estimates, ranges from 72 to 75 years. We all want to think that in the future a person will live much longer, for example, 120 or even 130 years. This is the opinion of the founder of Space X, Elon Musk, and the founder and owner of Alibaba, Jack Ma, believes that people will live at least two hundred years. But what if they are wrong and we have already reached the limit for our species?
Reasons why people can live more than 120 years
To begin with, one of the key factors in increasing life expectancy is reducing child mortality. In 1800, 43% of the world's newborns died before reaching the age of five. In 1960, the infant mortality rate was already 18.5%. And in 2015, according to the World Health Organization, this figure was 4.3%.
Also, mortality rates have changed a lot since the 19th century. A 50-year-old man who lived in England or Wales in 1850 could expect to live another 20 years. Today, life expectancy for a 50-year-old has increased by an additional 33 years. Advances in medicine over the past centuries and access to healthcare facilities have helped increase survival rates at different ages.
Given the technological and scientific progress, many today do not exclude that life expectancy will increase in the future. So, according to Jack Ma, in the next three decades, scientists will find a way to significantly extend the life span. Also, the Chinese billionaire does not exclude that we will learn the secrets of immortality. Jack Ma cites modern technologies and the transition to a three-day work week of 4 hours as the main arguments.
Jack Ma and Elon Musk at the World Conference on Artificial Intelligence in Shanghai.
Elon Musk also believes that 70-80 years is not the limit. The founder of Space X looks to the future with less optimism than Jack Ma, however, he believes that the development of technology, including artificial intelligence, can significantly extend the average life expectancy in 30-40 years.
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Billionaire enthusiasts aren't the only ones predicting an increase in life expectancy. Their opinion is also shared by some scientists, since according to a study published in 2017 in the journal Gerontology, there is no convincing evidence that we have reached the limit of human life expectancy.
Thus, proper nutrition, adherence to work and rest, a good environmental condition and strong friendships and families, along with the development of technology and the emergence of artificial intelligence, may well have a positive effect on life expectancy in the future.
Why can't people live for more than a hundred years
And yet there is an opposite point of view, the supporters of which believe that representatives of our species are unlikely to live more than a hundred years. Aging is to blame, because it is directly related to health. After all, aren't people living longer precisely because they are healthier? Aging, on the other hand, brings with it new health problems that are all too familiar to anyone caring for elderly relatives or getting older themselves.
If people are living longer, maintaining health over the long term will require special attention to healthy habits, starting in childhood. According to scientists at Stanford University who study the problems associated with aging, we need to focus on extending healthy life, rather than increasing its duration per se.
Life expectancy in different countries of the world.
In addition, the assumption that the life expectancy of a particular person also increases with the increase in average life expectancy is misleading the public. So, according to some scientists, a safe environment and better living conditions today are more significant factors contributing to an increase in human life expectancy than even the achievements of modern medicine.
It is also possible that we have reached the limit of life expectancy. So, according to the UK Office for National Statistics, life expectancy in 2015-2017 stopped increasing for the first time since 1982.
A recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Stanford University biologist Sripad Tuljapurkar found that life expectancy among those who crossed the 65-year mark increased by three years every 25 years. This means that people can live on average six years longer than their grandparents. That's great, but we're talking about six years, not 26 or more.
What predictions to believe
As tempting as it sounds to talk about a life of 120 or 200 years, I personally find this prospect rather dubious. In order to lead a healthy and fulfilling life, you need clean air, quality food and access to modern medicine. Not to mention access to modern technology. And let's not forget about the challenges of climate change, as they are directly related to life expectancy.
However, no matter what the future holds for the representatives of our species, each of us today can make our lives more comfortable and healthy. And this, in turn, will help to increase life expectancy. A healthy and varied diet, sleep and regular exercise are the most reliable and proven ways to make your life more enjoyable and longer.
Lyubov Sokovikova