The reason for the meeting with the head of the Pleistocene Park and an employee of the North-Eastern Scientific Station Nikita Zimov was the appearance of an anomalous number of mosquitoes in the Andryushkino area one day in the first half of July. But then the conversation turned to global issues.
- There is nothing special in the appearance of a large number of mosquitoes. Apparently, there was a simultaneous hatching of mosquitoes from the eggs. But generally speaking, according to our observations, there are fewer mosquitoes in the area, but there are more midges, and they began to appear much earlier, already in June. These insect species seem to compete with each other, and one crowds out the other.
The weather in recent years has not spoiled us: now a thunderstorm, now a strong wind moving the cranes in the port, now it is raining in winter. All of this affects insects and animals. And how much snow has fallen over the past three years, probably only the lazy did not talk about it. This has an impact on people and on economic activities. Sometimes in winter it is problematic to drive along the winter road, because everything is flooded with water, ice everywhere. This is a problem not only for people, but also for animals - deer are dying. If everything continues at such a pace, then in three years we will not have reindeer husbandry. Animals just can't stand this amount of rainfall.
Researchers and graduate students regularly work at the North-Eastern Scientific Station. Are their topics mainly related to methane emissions?
- Every year is different. For example, now there are practically no "metanists". Different groups come. This year the main scientists are hydrologists studying everything related to the carbon cycle. On Kolyma there is such a place as Duvanny Yar. There it washes away the shore, washes away the ancient organic matter, and all this is carried away by the river. And then questions arise: either organic matter will be converted into a greenhouse gas and will come out of the river, or will it all be carried into the ocean and lie on the bottom there?
A large group of scientists have been studying fires this year. On average, a forest burns every 50-100 years. Each time in a fire, old vegetation dies and then a new one appears. But due to warming, these processes are changing. Previously, larch trees grew well in the fires, but now they began to grow worse there. That is, if half a century ago, a dense "bamboo" forest of thin larches grew on the fires, now this is not the case - nowhere in the region are there such new forests, and, accordingly, this affects the climate.
Journalists also come to us. Basically, their close attention is associated with permafrost, which is a huge reservoir of organic carbon. It has been frozen for tens of thousands of years. These are huge reserves. In Yakutia alone, there is as much organic matter as in the entire terrestrial biomass of the planet. If we put the felled trees and shrubs of the entire planet on one side of the scale, and the roots of plants that are in the permafrost on the other, then these bowls will balance.
That is, we can say that a climate "bomb" for the entire planet is maturing in the Arctic?
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- Yes. Previously, the average rate of permafrost warming in our region was 0.1 degrees per year. And if previously the permafrost temperature was stable -6 -7 degrees, then over the past 30 years, it has increased to -3 -4 degrees. The problem is that over the past three years, our region has received a gigantic amount of precipitation. On average, this is double the rate of snow and rain. And snow is an ideal heat insulator. It seems to be cold, but in fact the snow protects the earth from frost. Now the snow begins to fall plentifully from October, before the new year there was little snow. And now it turns out that rivers freeze late and the earth freezes later.
This year, for the first time, we recorded such an event that in our large territories the active layer (that which thaws every summer) did not freeze. This was also recorded in our village of Chersky. So, at one of the sites, we measured 80 cm of the thawed layer. This means thawing has begun from above. In fact, now we have one and a half meters of thawed layer.
Is it a reversible process?
- If the next year suddenly turns out to be with little snow and cold, then this layer will freeze back. And it must be so! In the meantime, for the third year in a row, we have been gradually increasing the snow cover. Climate warming leads to evaporation in the oceans, and in the fall this precipitation is carried to us. Even 10 years ago, studies were carried out that showed that 80% of precipitation in the Nizhnekolymsky region comes from the Atlantic. Apparently, now a significant proportion of rainfall has begun to come from the Pacific Ocean, and as a result, the rainfall rate has doubled.
… Global processes associated with climate change require constant monitoring. Despite the difficulties of the 90s, Russia has retained most of the network of weather stations. This is good, but studies of warming processes and the behavior of permafrost under new conditions are also needed. So far, there is no consensus in our country about global warming, and it will be good or bad for Russia. Although, in general, for the country's agriculture, this can be good. As for the Nizhnekolymsky district, warming will bring big problems, and in the long term, the increasing thawing will lead to subsidence of the soil with all the ensuing consequences - and the permafrost under the village is 50% ice.
