The risk of death, which for humans and most animals grows exponentially with age, stops increasing once they reach a certain age. For a person, this age is one hundred and five years - found out American and European scientists.
The increasing risk of death over the years is described by the Gompertz distribution - this pattern, deduced back in the nineteenth century, implies an exponential increase in the probability of death, but works well only up to a certain age, that is, until about eighty years.
“The classical patterns do not work for people of a very old age, of whom there are quite a few in the modern world with its developed medicine. Life expectancy in developed countries continues to rise, so science needs new models by which to calculate the risks of death,”say staff at the University of California at Berkeley.
With the support of European demographer James Vopel, scientists from the United States analyzed a large array of statistical information accumulated by the Italian National Institute of Statistics. These are demographic statistics that include centenarians.
“The death probability curve reaches a plateau after 105 years. What does this mean? The fact that people have not yet reached the limits of longevity. In the future, the average life expectancy may well exceed a hundred years,”the scientists summarize.
Kolesnikov Andrey