Director of the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences on possible threats to planet Earth, on how Russian astronomy is developing now, as well as on the three-year anniversary of the fall of the Chelyabinsk meteorite
Photo: TASS / UrFU Press Service / Mikhail Shershnev
2016 began with a series of major discoveries in astronomy. Experts predicted a collision of our galaxy with the Andromeda nebula, announced the possibility of the existence of Planet-9 and announced the approach of a new asteroid - the "brother" of the Chelyabinsk meteorite, the third anniversary of the fall of which will be celebrated on February 15. Boris Shustov, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, spoke in an interview with TASS about how correct the assumptions of scientists are, whether there are real threats to our planet, and how Russian astronomy is now developing.
Boris Mikhailovich, many scientists have already expressed their doubts about the loud statements of scientists. What do you think of them?
- There is no point in panicking people. For example, a collision of galaxies is not unusual. The Milky Way will still collide with our closest neighbor according to the laws of gravity - not in four, so in 10-12 billion years. There will be no collision of the Sun with any star, so there is no need to fear a terrible catastrophe. Some of the stars and gas will be thrown out to the periphery, and some will merge into a new galaxy. The only change that the future inhabitants of the Earth will observe concerns the constellations - they will acquire new outlines.
As for the messages about the possible discovery of Planet-9, I can say that our colleagues from the United States carried out complex calculations on supercomputers and assumed the existence of a massive object. They indicated that the probability of the existence of a planet is about 99.9%, but scientists are still not quite satisfied with such a reliability of the conclusion. We need to see this object. And since the authors have identified a gigantic area in the sky, the search will take at least 5 years.
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Do modern powerful telescopes take so long to search?
- The fact is that most of them have a tiny field of view. The only telescope suitable for finding Planet 9 is located in Hawaii. Nevertheless, for the time being we treat this whole story with a rather reserved attitude. After all, it is impossible to "come, see and conquer" in science. It takes a lot of additional research before any new discovery.
That is, it is also necessary to react with restraint to an approaching asteroid?
- Of course, he does not carry any danger, the data given in the messages are extremely approximate. Despite the fact that its dimensions are comparable to the well-known Chelyabinsk meteorite, the probability that the asteroid will fly 17 thousand kilometers from the Earth is negligible. Its orbit is poorly known, so the distance can be in the range from 17 thousand to 14 million km. So far, scientists do not possess technologies that would give a more accurate result. However, claims of impending threats, be it this asteroid or the aforementioned collision of galaxies, are nothing more than horror stories.
So, nothing threatens our planet yet? Or is there any real danger?
- Space debris is considered a serious hazard. We have put so many artificial objects into orbit that in a few decades we may lose access to space. These objects collide, spawning many new dangerous fragments. Some say that nuclear weapons should be used against garbage, but this is completely unnecessary. After all, this is about the same as firing a cannon at sparrows.
Then how to deal with it? How do we clean up in space?
- Many methods are considered: from fishing with a net to the use of lasers. By aiming a powerful laser at an object, we will achieve evaporation, which will give a reactive effect. The laser "shot" will not destroy the debris, but will only give a push, which will move the fragment out of orbit. I would also like to note that the problem of space debris has a global scale, therefore it is necessary to combine the efforts of the leading countries.
What place does Russia occupy in the ranks of these countries? How do you assess the current state of Russian astronomy?
- We are still in the period of recovery of Russian astronomy after the crisis of the 1990s. Most of the developments were stopped for 15-20 years. But the difficult period in astronomy is already coming to an end, new significant steps are needed for its development. Otherwise, we will remain in the rearguard of modern science.
A list of promising infrastructure projects is currently being discussed. Who worked to create it?
- An interdepartmental group of experts, assembled at the initiative of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Ministry of Education and Science in agreement with the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, worked on its creation from July to December last year. The list includes 18 projects, the implementation of which would bring Russian astronomy to a new level. Now the document is under discussion at Roscosmos. I think it will take several months, after which the details will be known.
What fundamental projects were included in it?
- Priority in the group of international mega-projects was assigned to Russia's participation in the European Southern Observatory (ESO). This will allow us to get access to the most modern means of terrestrial astronomy. In the group of Russian mega-projects, priority was given to the completion of the construction of a large radio telescope on the Suffa plateau in Uzbekistan. And in the category of medium-level projects, the project of modernization of the Baikal underwater neutrino telescope is considered promising.
The main selection criteria are scientific significance, relevance and absence of risks. Of course, not all projects met these requirements. For example, the project put forward by Moscow State University to build a 60-meter optical telescope "Gagarin" on the Canary Islands failed. The authorities of the Canary Islands were already ready to provide a site for construction, but from Russia it would be required to make enormous investments. The 39-meter telescope currently under construction at ESO has a budget of more than € 2 billion, and here is a much larger instrument.
Was the project to create a new structure for countering space threats included in the list?
- Yes, we also need new ground infrastructures. For example, the project of the Russian system for warning and countering space threats is considered one of the most promising. It will be analogous to NASA's department for coordinating planetary defense against asteroids and other threats. There is an opinion that astronomy studies something abstract, but our scientists are not stargazers, thanks to their work, safety on Earth is ensured.
That is, decisions on projects have not yet been made?
- No, it will take several more months. We have just prepared the material necessary for further actions. But necessity is not sufficiency, as mathematicians teach us. Decision making is another area.
Interviewed by Ekaterina Sharapova
