The situation may worsen until cold heads prevail.
What happens when a presidential apparatus, plagued by a shortage of staff, experience and control, as well as resistance from internal adversaries, faces a growing crisis with a nuclear superpower? It is likely that we will soon learn this from our own experience, as influential groups in both Russia and the United States are eager to fight.
In the United States, an amazing alliance of die-hard Republicans who have not come to terms with their defeat of the Democrats and "hawks" in the army and intelligence sees Russia as a common enemy that has not paid for its crimes. Many are convinced that President Trump's hopes of improving U. S.-Russian relations are at best naive and at worst a cynical cover for immoral, if not treacherous, deals with dishonest Russian authorities and businessmen. The general resistance from these groups against any effort to find the slightest understanding with Moscow, bolstered by systematic leaks of Russian-related material in news outlets designed to precipitate Trump's fall, is putting incredible pressure on the president to make way for the military and intelligence officers.so that they would respond to Russian misconduct. The recent announcement that Congress has come to a near-unanimous decision to adopt new anti-Russian sanctions and limit the president's ability to lift them only underscores how powerful these forces are.
In Russia, however, the short-lived optimism about the new American administration was replaced by concern over the scandal caused by Russian interference in the elections, then irritation over Washington's deepening inability to act, and finally turned into genuine anger over the continued unwillingness of the United States to return to Russia diplomatic property seized in the last days before the departure of the Obama administration. So far, President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov have contained mounting pressure from Russian nationalists to respond to what they see as American aggression. For example, Putin decided to refrain from a symmetrical response to the expulsion of 35 alleged Russian intelligence agents from the United States, preferring to give the future Trump administration a clean slate. Besides,he reacted with restraint to the American strike on military targets in Syria. Yet despite the caricature of Putin in the American media, where he is vested with near-absolute power over the Russian political system, he cannot forever ignore pressure from the Russian right, especially when his calls for Russian restraint are not reciprocated in Washington.
Both sides present well-founded claims to each other, but in addition to this, they both suffer from deep mutual misunderstandings. Russia has misinterpreted American support for democratic processes in Russia and surrounding countries as seeking to encircle and further overthrow the Russian government. In Ukraine, Georgia and other republics of the former Soviet Union, democratic forces also relied on a firm nationalist and anti-Russian platform. They turned to the United States not only for ideological reasons, but also because they saw in us a military and geopolitical counterbalance to Moscow. Washington's tendency to turn a blind eye to anti-Russian sentiments in these states only convinced Moscow more strongly thatthat US support for democracy movements is a cynical struggle to establish pro-American and anti-Russian governments along Russian borders.
In the United States, Russia's rejection of our actions has been mistakenly interpreted as rejection of who we are. Our confrontation with the Soviet Union during the Cold War was both ideological and geopolitical. Our current friction with Russia is geopolitical, not ideological. Undoubtedly, the Russians began to view the United States as a malevolent global power, using its formidable economic and military power to punish or overthrow regimes it dislikes without any regard for Moscow's protests, international legal restrictions, or the chaos left by American incursions. Nonetheless, while the Kremlin has a deep suspicion of democracies that combine close ties with Washington with hostility to Russia,he has no fundamental dislike for democracy as such. With democracies that do not intend to join NATO and do not pursue hostile policies, such as India or Israel, Moscow has long maintained constructive, if not friendly, relations.
Under normal circumstances, such a combination of well-founded grievances and misunderstandings would be correctable. However, internal pressure in both capitals makes it difficult for states to behave with restraint. Most likely, the sparks that will ignite this political deadwood are destined to originate in the murky expanses of intelligence and digital operations in which American and Russian operatives treat each other with undisguised hatred. If the dispute over diplomatic property is not resolved soon, Moscow will almost certainly retaliate by expelling US personnel from Russia and restricting access to US diplomatic property. However, we shouldn't expect complete symmetry given the emotionally charged atmosphere of the scene. It is likely that the Russians will intensify the persecution of our diplomats,which has already led to a series of nasty, albeit not very well-publicized incidents. If - as the Washington Post reported - the United States deployed digital bombs at critical junctions in Russia's infrastructure to potentially detonate them in the future, similar actions by Russia are likely, and a scenario in which it would not wait before activating them could well be imagined.
However, a direct clash between US and Russian military forces in Ukraine is most likely. The Minsk agreements, with the help of which France and Germany tried to stop and resolve the Ukrainian conflict, actually lost force. Clashes escalate between Ukrainian troops and Moscow-backed ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine. The United States has established a military training facility - which looks like a military base for the Russians - in western Ukraine, where American military personnel have stepped up the training and equipment of Ukrainian fighters. Russia has established a series of military bases along its border with Ukraine. Neither the Ukrainian nor the Russian authorities have full control over nationalist groups on both sides of the front that are actively participating in hostilities.and from the side of the US Congress there is growing pressure to provide Ukraine with weapons.
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It would take a hefty diplomatic effort even for the most exceptional statesman to stop the pending exchange of strikes from turning into a direct military confrontation. From the Russians' perspective, the US retaliatory action would confirm their worst suspicions of American intentions, undermining the position of Lavrov and other supporters of more constructive relations between Russia and the United States, as well as strengthening hard-line Russian nationalists. The Russian response will almost certainly reinforce American perceptions of Russia as an enemy seeking to harm the United States, its allies, and the international order. The slightest incident, such as a digital attack on American infrastructure or an attack on American military personnel in Ukraine, can lead to a chain reaction of events.
The situation may worsen until cold heads prevail. Neither the Americans nor the Russians want a return to the worst days of the Cold War, when the horror of nuclear war was so likely. At that time, looking into the abyss of the Cuban missile crisis helped steer the United States and the Soviet Union away from the clash, towards reducing our nuclear arsenal, defusing tensions, and finally ending our mutual enmity. We can only hope that we do not have to face a similar crisis to recover today.
George Beebe
