Global warming and forecasts of leading scientists regarding the negative effects of heat on the human body are frightening. The researchers believe that human life expectancy will be reduced under the influence of climate change.
Every year the coast is receding more and more, because the level of the world ocean rises. Just imagine, the glaciers are melting, and in some regions, where life was still in full swing, deserts have appeared.
Weather anomalies occur more and more often, hurricanes and tsunamis occur, each time causing more and more harm. Increasing temperatures are increasingly leading to unprecedentedly hot weather.
This time, what was said does not apply to the prophecies of adepts preaching the end of the world. This is said by experts studying climate change, looking for ways to minimize human activity, provoking an increase in ambient temperature on the planet.
In addition, climatologists say that the coming years can be a serious test for all of humanity.
Formidable problems are reported in the results of a study published in the journal Nature Communications, recently carried out by a group of European scientists, including experts from the Catalan Climate Institute (CIC, Spain).
According to their data, one can imagine a terrible picture of the future: at the end of this century, mortality in summer due to sunstroke and heart attacks will exceed mortality rates due to "winter" diseases, including influenza, hypothermia and pneumonia.
To come to this conclusion, the researchers conducted a comparative analysis of data on climatic parameters (temperature and humidity), and data on the negative impact of extreme temperatures, taking into account, among other things, the number of deaths caused by seasonal pathologies (diseases typical of summer or winter).
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The data was collected in 16 European countries, involving 400 million people. The aim of the study was to predict possible scenarios for the serious impact of climatic conditions on society, taking into account the fact that in the summer of 2003, 40 thousand people died from the exorbitant heat.
The problem of climate change
The results of the studies came out extremely depressing: On a European scale, the data are not so significant - a decrease in life expectancy by 3-4 months is predicted. However, if the data is presented in a different vein, then we can talk about 15 thousand deaths annually.
From 2080 to the end of the century inclusive, it is the heat that will cause 230 thousand deaths, - Joan Ballester, one of the authors of the study, told the journalist of the ELMUNDO.es website. “Although the indicators have changed depending on the region and the means that are used to reduce the effects of climate change,” added the specialist.
The most serious situation is predicted for the Mediterranean countries - Spain, Portugal, Italy, France and Croatia. “These countries are more vulnerable than others to a changing climate for a number of reasons: from the fact that the summer temperatures are already high there, to the fact that water evaporation and desertification of the territory are increasing, which also leads to an increase in sunstroke,” the scientist explained. from KIK.
Thus, according to forecasts, in the listed countries, life expectancy may decrease by more than 9 months.
"There is such a thing as 'comfort temperature', - the researchers explain, - this temperature is ideal for human life, lies between 14 and 25 degrees Celsius."
However, in reality, despite the fact that August (the hottest month of the year in Europe) has not yet arrived, in some regions of Spain the temperature is already reaching 45 degrees. According to the forecasts obtained in the described study, by the middle of this century, winter temperatures will increase by 2.5 degrees, and summer temperatures even by four.
Adapting to climate change will need to
The study showed that until now, it was assumed that more deaths are due to cold than heat, so it was expected that higher temperatures would lead to lower mortality. However, this did not actually happen. And while the trend towards an increase in mortality is not so severe in scale, the data show that anxiety does exist.
In connection with the ongoing climate change, the UN has already warned that an increase in average temperature by two degrees Celsius will lead to a decrease in the number of species living on the planet. In addition, a rise in sea level will certainly intensify migration processes, and these will not be the only changes.
“The effect of this factor on human health across the European territory will be different, depending on the region of residence. First of all, it must be remembered that in developed countries the number of people 60 years and older annually increases by almost 2% and now the average age of the population is 40 years, and by 2050 it is expected to be already 47 years old,”explained Ballaster.
“On the other hand, climate change in terms of the degree of impact can divide Europe into three large zones. The most serious and negative changes are expected in the countries of the Mediterranean coast, but rather positive climate changes will be for countries such as the UK and Denmark, in which the climate will remain moderate, such as it is now in the south of these countries.
However, in any case, the decrease in the diversity of biological species will become significant,”- said experts from the CIC.
Despite this, researchers are trying to find positive aspects in the ongoing changes. “If we can acclimatize to new conditions, as well as provided that other factors develop in a positive direction.
For example, if the systems for maintaining sanitary standards are improved, then such forecasts may not be justified and the average life expectancy in countries that are subject to the most negative climatic changes may even increase by almost a year,”Ballaster assured everyone.
In any case, the most vulnerable group of the population will be the elderly, since their body's ability to regulate thermoregulation is no longer as good as in youth. At risk are people suffering from respiratory or cardiovascular disorders, living in industrial areas with high levels of pollution.
However, the increase in mortality of the population depends not only on the climate, but is also associated with an increase in the average age of living, - explained Ballaster.
Thus, “if nothing can be done about the rise in temperature, we will need to acclimatize to these changes so that there is no spike in mortality,” said Javier Rodo, director of the Catalan Climate Institute.