According to a new study led by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the median time from infection to symptoms of an infectious disease caused by the novel COVID-19 coronavirus confirms earlier estimates and justifies the need
14-day quarantine period.
Analysis of publicly available data on infections caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which is the causative agent of the respiratory disease COVID-19, has estimated the average incubation period of the disease at 5.1 days. This median time period from infection to symptom onset suggests that the 14-day quarantine period for suspected coronavirus-infected individuals is a reasonable precautionary measure.
The analysis suggests that about 97.5 percent of people who show symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 do so within 11.5 days of infection. Researchers estimate that for every 10,000 people quarantined for 14 days, there are only about 101 people who will show symptoms of an infectious disease after being quarantined.
As part of the study, the scientists also analyzed 181 cases of the disease in China and other countries that were registered before February 24, were mentioned in the media and included the likely dates of infection and the onset of symptoms. In most cases, it was about travel to Wuhan (China), which is at the epicenter of the outbreak, or about infection from people who have visited Hubei province, whose capital is Wuhan.
In this regard, health authorities around the world are using a 14-day quarantine or active monitoring on individuals known to be at high risk of infection through contact with infected people or travel to areas most affected by COVID-19.
Accurately assessing the incubation period for a new virus allows epidemiologists to better assess the likely dynamics of an outbreak, and also allows health officials to develop effective quarantine and other control measures. As a rule, quarantine can ultimately stop the spread of infection, even though there are isolated cases where the incubation period of the disease exceeds the period of the quarantine.
Scientists note that isolating people by not allowing them to work has its own costs, both personal and social, which is perhaps most obvious when health workers and emergency responders such as firefighters are in quarantine. …
Promotional video:
The new estimate for SARS-CoV-2's median incubation period of 5.1 days is similar to estimates from the earliest studies of the new virus, which were based on fewer infections. This incubation period for SARS-CoV-2 is in the same range as SARS-CoV (another human-infecting coronavirus that caused a major outbreak in Hong Kong, PRC and southern China in 2002-2004). For the MERS-CoV coronavirus, which has caused several hundred infections in the Middle East with a relatively high mortality rate, the estimated average incubation period is 5-7 days.