According to climatologists at the Carnegie Institution at Stanford University, there is an urgent need to return to the issue of reducing emissions of gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect.
If the emissions of hydrocarbon combustion products into the planet's atmosphere remain at the same level, the air temperature on Earth by 2100 may increase by 15%.
This forecast was made by a group of American experts based on the study of data obtained by calculations using an experimental model of the Earth.
The main conclusion, summarizing the report of Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira, climate scientists at the Carnegie Institution at Stanford University (California), is that it is urgent to return to the issue of reducing emissions of gases from the combustion of natural hydrocarbons and contributing to the greenhouse effect.
Scientists argue about the rate of global warming
In 2014, the Group of Intergovernmental Experts on the Evolution of the Earth's Climate (GMEEEC) published a report on the problems of global warming towards the end of the 21st century, in which this problem did not look so dramatic. Then their conclusions were accepted by representatives of the scientific world of the planet with relief.
Now, experts from California, on the basis of their own scientific research, conclude that the rate of increase in ambient temperature is accelerating and admit the data of GMEEKZ experts do not correspond to the realities of the time. In an article published in the scientific journal Nature, Brown and Caldeira defend the most pessimistic prediction of the course of events. So, they believe that by the end of this century, the increase in the temperature of the planet's air in the range from 3.2 to 5.9 degrees compared to the so-called pre-industrial period of human development.
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Scientists explain such a tangible "fork" of almost 3 degrees by the increasing absorption of the sun's energy by the planet's surface and its reflection, which is difficult to calculate accurately. It is this effect that leads to a significant scatter in the forecasted indicators of global warming. Not ignoring the results of calculations by colleagues from the GMEEKZ, scientists from California agree that for the planet's atmosphere, even a 0.5% increase in temperature is very noticeable.
Sea level rise is not the main danger
According to experts of the Carnegie Institute, an increase in temperature by one or more degrees will lead not only to an increase in the level of the World Ocean, but also to an increase in the level of acidity of the ocean, which threatens the death of flora and fauna; a sharp narrowing of the ration (coastal) ice at the poles, to an increase in precipitation on the planet.
Research results show that "it is impossible to slow down the long-standing trend towards an increase in the greenhouse effect without reducing emissions of gases into the atmosphere," say Brown and Caldeira. They recall that, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the leaders of the signatory states pledged to do everything to keep the global average temperature rise "well below +2 degrees" and "make efforts" to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees.