The Central Bank in its report openly and without further ado explained the program of our "beloved" government with an increase in the retirement age, a 4-day working week and the abolition of Soviet laws. It turns out that everything is simple: because of the anti-family policy of the 1990s, when the words “large” and “poor” became synonymous, we have a decline in demographics, and Russians have become too expensive to pay. Therefore, all we need to do is reduce the “ineffective” Russians and take in their place extremely efficient and cheap migrants. The Central Bank's report is so frank that even in the State Duma the employees of the country's main bank were called crazy.
The process of returning to the "holy 90s" is gaining momentum in Russia day by day. Yesterday it became known that we have already returned there due to the birth rate. According to state-owned RIA Novosti, citing monitoring of the socio-economic situation and well-being of the RANEPA population, the total first birth rate in 2018 was 0.66 children per woman. Such a low indicator was observed in Russia only in 1999 - at the “bottom” of the downward trend in fertility. That is, finally, at the level of state universities and the media, they admitted: we have not a “temporary recession”, “the consequences of the Great Patriotic War,” but a real demographic tragedy - Russian women stopped giving birth, and the country is dying out.
Of course, it will no longer be possible to pretend that nothing is happening at the top, to tell how they help large families and stimulate the birth rate, after Rosstat data, where every fourth child - 26% in the country - has lived below the poverty line in the last two years. Of these, 45% of children, or almost half, live in the countryside. More than half - 52.2% - are children from large families. With such a result of the government's work over the past seven years - since 2012 - it's ridiculous to talk about how Medvedev will save everyone now. And no one is going to, as the Russian Central Bank writes about in its report on monetary policy.
To begin with, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation loudly declares: the location of our economy in the area just below the back is not the fault of the Central Bank itself and its fellow-associates in the Gaidar club from the government. The villainous people are to blame for everything, they refused to be fruitful and multiply. In a smart way, it sounds like this: “The expected demographic trends may affect the medium-term dynamics of inflation and economic growth. The continued decline in the number of the economically active population in the coming years due to the current age structure of the population will remain a factor limiting the potential rate of economic growth in 2020-2022, even taking into account the positive contribution from raising the retirement age."
Here we kind of agree. Moreover, Katyusha wrote long before the confessions of the “analysts” of Nabiullina's office that it was the demographic crisis in our country that caused the pension reform, slows down the economy, etc. What is the trouble - it is clear, now it remains to understand what to do. How to return to our beauties the desire to become mothers? It is clear that there should be a large social and information program, not with ephemeral maternal capital, which you should try again, and it will either be in the future or not, but with real steps like the Hungarian measures with loans for 20 years at 3% and writing them off for each newborn, benefits for family cars, the creation, not destruction of children's clinics, and further, further, further. And at the same time, the institution of a normal family should become a priority in the media and Internet portals funded from the state budget,that is, more than half of the media and two-thirds of major Internet portals, where instead of the next "concert" Sobchak, porn stars and feminists should be promoted completely different ideals.
However, this is if there is a task to raise the birth rate. But the trouble is, Russians are an extremely “ineffective people”, because the more they die out, the fewer job seekers there will be, they will have to pay higher salaries, and this cannot be allowed. In the interpretation of the Central Bank, it sounds like this: "The lack of supply on the labor market may affect the dynamics of wages and household consumption, as well as put upward pressure on inflation." So, honestly and frankly: increasing the people's income for our Central Bank is not only an unattainable thing, but also extremely harmful, because it spoils inflation statistics for them, and the IMF does not like this.
Worse, the Russians are “not effective” so much that, in addition to money, they require medical care and secondary education for children, and even stutter about roads with bridges, and this is again expenses, salaries of state employees, road workers and builders, and these are “wrong incomes”, which, as we have already understood, are harmful. But everything can be made much easier if the Russians are removed and replaced with those for whom life in Russia will be a fairy tale. After all, how many such places we have on the planet: the Republic of the Congo, Bangladesh, the Central African Republic, Libya and further down the list.
This is what they say in the report: the influence of the demographic factor can be mitigated by increasing the flexibility of the labor market, reducing unproductive jobs, as well as immigration from other countries. “The influence of the demographic factor on potential output and inflation can be mitigated if the decline in the economically active population of Russia is substantially offset by increasing labor market flexibility, reducing unproductive jobs, as well as immigration from other countries. At the same time, migration flows will be influenced not only by the migration policy of the Government, but also by the overall attractiveness of the Russian economy for foreign labor in comparison with other countries."
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Everyone, friends, there is a curtain and prolonged thunderous applause - we have not had such open anti-nationality in our statements since the days of Mr. Chubais “will not fit into the market”. That is, so that “inflation does not rise”, in the absence of which not everyone believes in our country, the Central Bank proposes to reduce “non-production” jobs. Great, let's finally cut down officials at all levels, as well as all sorts of analytical and expert agencies "feeding" from them, from the conclusions of which the hair stands on end. Nobody minds if the employees of the credit and financial sector are laid off. But no, he does not speak about the reduction of the state apparat, as well as of the apparatuses of governors and district heads - they are producing benefits for themselves and their families, how can they be reduced? According to the textbook of economics, the non-production sphere also includes such industries,as education, health care, etc., producing specific goods, called services, consumed directly in the process of their production. The non-production sphere includes, in particular, the so-called spiritual production (production of spiritual goods) - a concept introduced by Marx to characterize the production of ideas, knowledge, perceptions, artistic values.
That is, the Central Bank nicely offers us to cut doctors, teachers, workers of the Houses of Culture and other "unnecessary citizens" who only eat "free state money" inflation will be for happiness. And the Russians did not fit into the market and died out like mammoths. Rosstat, by the way, has already calculated the statistics of the resettlement of Russians in history textbooks.
This approach to the country's future caused shock even in the State Duma. “They’re crazy there! They think in abstract categories, extremely divorced from what actually happens in the labor market. The influx of young people is now small, but it is increasing. If a few years ago about 600 thousand young people came to the labor market a year, now it is about 800 thousand, and this figure will increase until about 2027. In addition, the number of jobs itself is declining due to technological changes. Since 2011, the number of jobs has decreased by 5 million. And only last year we received minus 450 thousand jobs. In these conditions, one should not look for where to get additional labor force in order to produce unemployment, but on the contrary, it is necessary to reduce the retirement age,perceiving it as a method of withdrawing from the market the removal of unnecessary workers on it.
It makes no sense to say that you will work not five days a week, but four, but at the same time you will not work until 60, but 65. There is no logic in such approaches. Moreover, there are a number of nuances that make such approaches fundamentally harmful. For example, a lag in the labor market for an older workforce suggests that there is no movement on the talent bench under these conditions. Meanwhile, this year they brought an additional 2 million people to the labor market due to the increase in the retirement age. At the same time, the number of young people who come to the labor market is 800 thousand less than it would have been with a simple substitution. To put it simply, let's say we have no job cuts, we have a static number of jobs - how many workers we would need hands? This year we can talk about 1.1 million, and they brought 2 million people to the labor market. And so it will be every year - from year to year,”said Oleg Shein, a State Duma deputy, vice-president of the Confederation of Labor of Russia, on the Central Bank report.
He openly named the reason why our officials and state corporations are so concerned about migrants. “What circumstances provide motivation for employers to attract foreign labor, and which ones demotivate employers for this decision? Studies show that the difference in wages is not so high - it is 15-20% and is gradually being leveled. The main thing that the employer saves is taxes, contributions to the Pension Fund, health insurance. These two categories represent the net surplus profit of companies,”the MP said. And he said everything correctly, everything is clever and with numbers - it remains to understand where these guardians of the people were when the government laws were passed. Why didn't we hear this year ago when there was a discussion of the pension reform? However, the questions here are rather rhetorical.
Only our people's choice is not right - not crazy people in the Central Bank sit and are not cut off from life. He just probably believes that the authors of the report were thinking about the future of Russians. And if this fascinating reading matter was written in Russia, it was by ardent fans of the "Soros plan", which is actively promoting it in the EU and which has already demolished several governments and caused a political crisis in Europe. Moreover, it was written as a carbon copy with similar conclusions in France, Germany, Italy. Everywhere in such reports it was indicated that the population was dying out, aging, and for the convenience of corporations it was desirable that it died out faster, and that it was replaced by young, strong and unpretentious guys from Africa and Asia. Kudrin said the same thing with us, and now an official document has appeared, which officially states:for the sake of increasing corporate incomes, the leadership of the Central Bank so far only proposes to slowly but surely lower the country to the level of Africa, and replace the indigenous population with a more "efficient" one.
