There are always those who foresee the future, but they do not always listen to them
The analytical note by Pyotr Nikolaevich Durnovo (1842-1915) - Minister of Internal Affairs in the revolutionary 1905-1906 years, and then the long-term leader of the right-wing group of the State Council (1906-1915), compiled by him on the eve of the First World War, has long attracted the attention of historians and publicists … This note is often called "prophetic", and its author, "a remarkably intelligent man", "brilliant abilities, enormous strength, inimitable efficiency, and almost wonderful insight", some researchers proclaim an oracle and even a "Russian Nostradamus." And this is not surprising, since much of what the ruling spheres of Durnovo warned about in the winter of 1914 turned out to be a reality three years later.
The vital interests of Russia and Germany do not collide anywhere
“… If a warning voice was broadcasting then, it was from the right circles, from whose ranks a note drawn up at the beginning of 1914 by one of the firm and, of course, especially persecuted rightists - P. N. Durnovo, who predicted what consequences the impending war would have for Russia”, - noted in exile a prominent church historian, a man of conservative views, N. D. Thalberg.
The content of this rather voluminous document is well reflected in the headings of the sections of the "Notes" given to her already upon publication in Soviet Russia: 1. The future Anglo-German war will turn into an armed clash between two groups of powers; 2. It is difficult to grasp any real benefits obtained by Russia as a result of rapprochement with England; 3. The main groupings in the coming war; 4. The main burden of the war will fall on Russia; 5. The vital interests of Germany and Russia do not collide anywhere; 6. In the area of economic interests, Russian benefits and needs do not contradict German ones; 7. Even a victory over Germany promises Russia extremely unfavorable prospects; 8. The struggle between Russia and Germany is deeply undesirable for both sides as it boils down to weakening the monarchist principle; 9. Russia will be plunged into hopeless anarchy,the outcome of which is difficult to foresee; 10. Germany, in case of defeat, will have to endure no less social upheaval than Russia; 11. The peaceful cohabitation of cultured nations is most threatened by England's desire to maintain its eluding dominance over the seas.
The author of the "Note", very clearly outlining the alignment of forces, warned that at the beginning of a military conflict, which will inevitably break out due to the rivalry between England and Germany and grow into a world conflict if Russia is involved in it on the side of Britain, it will lead to the fact that it will have to act as a pull-back patch. Anticipating a number of complications as a result of the war, Durnovo stated: “Are we ready for such a stubborn struggle, which, undoubtedly, will be the future war of the European peoples? This question has to be answered in the negative without offense."
At the same time, Durnovo pointed out that the alliance between England and Russia does not open up absolutely no benefits to the latter, but promises obvious foreign policy problems.
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Analyzing further the claims of the Russian Empire and the possibility of achieving them, the right-wing politician came to the conclusion that "the vital interests of Russia and Germany do not clash anywhere and provide a full basis for the peaceful coexistence of the two states." Therefore, Durnovo believed, neither the difficult-to-achieve victory over Germany, much less the defeat from it, promised Russia absolutely no benefits - neither in the domestic political situation (weakening of the monarchical principle, the growth of liberal and revolutionary sentiments), nor in the economy (the collapse of the national economy and large debts on loans), nor in foreign policy (the natural desire of the allies in the Entente to weaken Russia when there is no longer a need for it). The conclusion from the “Note” was as follows: “We are not on our way with England, she must be left to her fate, and we do not have to quarrel with Germany over her. The triple agreement is an artificial combination, without the basis of interests, and the future belongs not to it, but to the incomparably more vital close rapprochement of Russia, Germany, reconciled with the last France and connected with Russia by a strictly defensive alliance by Japan."
At the same time, Durnovo also pointed out the weakness of Russian liberalism, which, in the event of a deep crisis caused by the coming war, would not be able to restrain revolutionary action. If the autocratic authorities have enough will to suppress opposition actions firmly enough, then, the conservative analyst believed, “if the opposition does not have serious roots in the population, this will be the end of the matter.” But if the government makes concessions and tries to enter into an agreement with the opposition (which eventually happened), then it will only weaken itself by the time the socialist elements emerge. “Although it sounds paradoxical,” he wrote, “an agreement with the opposition in Russia certainly weakens the government. The fact is that our opposition does not want to reckon with the fact that it does not represent any real force. The Russian opposition is entirely intelligent,and this is its weakness, since between the intelligentsia and the people we have a deep abyss of mutual misunderstanding and mistrust."
Further predicting revolutionary actions inevitable in the event of a war with Germany, Durnovo warned: “It will start with the fact that all the failures will be attributed to the government. A fierce campaign against him will begin in the legislative institutions, as a result of which revolutionary actions will begin in the country. These latter immediately put forward socialist slogans, the only ones that can raise and group broad strata of the population, first a black redistribution, and then a general division of all values and property. The defeated army, which, moreover, during the war lost its most reliable cadre of its own, seized for the most part by a spontaneously common peasant desire for land, will turn out to be too demoralized to serve as a bulwark of law and order. Legislative institutions and oppositional-intellectual parties, deprived of real authority in the eyes of the people, will be unable to restrain the diverging waves of the people, raised by them, and Russia will be plunged into a hopeless anarchy, the outcome of which cannot even be foreseen."
Exploding Bomb Effect
However, in 1914, PN Durnovo's "Note" was not given due attention. Transferred to the emperor and some influential dignitaries, it remained completely unknown to wide circles of Russian society until the 1920s.
For the first time "Note" was published in German under the title "Prewar Memorandum of Durnovo to the Tsar" in the German weekly "Reichswart", which was published since 1920 by the prominent German publicist of the conservative direction Count E. Reventlow, after which it was reprinted by other foreign publications. As noted in the introduction to the German edition of Zapiski, this document has been preserved in several copies, one of which was in the papers of a certain Russian minister who translated it into German after the revolution. Having produced the effect of an exploding bomb, the sensational document was soon published in Russian in the Russian-German monarchist magazine Aufbau.
In Soviet Russia, fragments of this remarkable document were first cited by the famous historian E. V. Tarle in 1922, and then, due to the great interest in the "Note", its text was reproduced in full in the journal "Krasnaya Nov". As Tarle asserted, “This note was not even communicated to all ministers; only after the revolution did it become known to several people who accidentally got hold of a lithographed copy of it. " However, how did the “Note” end up in the hands of E. V. Tarle, and what this specimen was, remains unknown.
Apocryphal, fake or original?
The amazing predictive accuracy of the Note and the fact that it became widely known only in the post-revolutionary period, when much of what Durnovo predicted had already happened, inevitably caused skepticism and gave rise to doubts about its authenticity. Leftist publicist Mark Aldanov (MA Landau), for example, noted that “when you read this“Note”, it sometimes seems that you are dealing with an apocrypha.” It seemed to Aldanov absolutely incredible how a tsarist official "could have predicted events of a gigantic historical scale with such amazing accuracy and confidence." But in “Ulm Night” M. Aldanov no longer expresses any doubt about the authenticity of the “Note”: “Political predictions are good when they are completely concrete. Specifically, there was a prediction made a few months before the First World War by the former Minister of Durnovo,and I consider this prediction the best of all I know, and, frankly, brilliant: he predicted not only the war (which would not be difficult), but absolutely accurately and in detail predicted the entire configuration of large and small powers in it, predicted its course, predicted its outcome."
However, there is also quite concrete evidence that the "prophetic note" is not a hoax. The emigre figure D. G. Browns wrote that this "document was removed from the Sovereign's papers and confirmed in exile by the few who saw it."
This statement is confirmed by a number of sources. According to Countess M. Yu. Bobrinskaya (nee Princess Trubetskaya, daughter of Lieutenant-General of the Suite and the commander of His Imperial Majesty's Own convoy) in a letter to A. I. Solzhenitsyn, she read this note before the revolution and therefore can vouch for its reliability. A typewritten copy of the "Note" (and in pre-revolutionary spelling) is preserved in the State Archives of the Russian Federation among the papers of Patriarch Tikhon, dated 1914-1918. and in the fund of Archpriest John Vostorgov, who also draw up documents up to 1918. It is also known about the typewritten copy of the "Note" deposited in the Department of Manuscripts of the Institute of Russian Literature in the fund of a member of the State Council, a prominent lawyer A. F. Horses. The version of the "Note" was preserved in the Bakhmetyevsk archive (USA) in the papers of the former Minister of Finance P. L. Barge.
In addition, about the "Note" submitted by PN. Durnovo to the Emperor in February 1914, according to the memoirs of the former Deputy Minister of the Interior, General P. G. Kurlov, published in Berlin in German in 1920, but this mention is missing in the Russian-language edition for some unknown reason. Mention "Note" Durnovo in their memoirs and M. A. Taube, who in 1914 held the post of Assistant Minister of Public Education, as well as Baroness M. E. Kleinmichel. According to the director of the department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs VB Lopukhin, although he himself did not hold Durnovo's Notes in his hands, a member of the State Council who held in 1916-1917 read and retell it to him. the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs, N. N. Pokrovsky. “In something, but in awareness and in mind, Peter Nikolaevich Durnovo, with all his negative qualities, could not be denied,- wrote VB Lopukhin, who adhered to liberal views. “And his note deserved attention. An experienced statesman spoke out, as no one else understood the internal situation in Russia at that time. The author of the note seemed to be able to predict the events as they actually played out. However, the prophecy that was later justified was not given faith at that time."
In their predictions the rightists turned out to be prophets
Although "Note" by P. N. Durnovo strikes with the realism of the forecast made in it, as well as the clarity and consistency of the arguments presented, nevertheless, the thoughts expressed in it were characteristic of the conservative circles of Russian society.
As one of the memoirists justly noted, what Durnovo wrote about in his Note was called upon at that time by a "whole" chorus "of official Rights." And it really was.
If we turn to the pre-war views of such Russian conservative publicists and right-wing politicians as Yu. S. Kartsov, G. V. Boutmy, P. F. Bulatsel, K. N. Paskhalov, I. A. Rodionov, A. E. Vandam, N. E. Markov and others, then in them one can indeed find much in common with PN's "Note". Durnovo, because they all also opposed the Anglo-Russian rapprochement, wished to avoid a conflict with Germany and assessed the potential Russian-German war as "suicidal for the monarchist regimes of both countries." Durnovo was also close in foreign policy views to S. Yu. Witte, who also considered the Russian-French-German alliance as the guarantor of European peace, and therefore opposed the Anglo-Russian rapprochement. Before the outbreak of the First World War, Witte expressed thoughts very similar to those reflected in Durnovo's Note. Proving the thesis that the war with Germany was destructive for Russia, Witte called the Anglo-Russian alliance "a mistake that tied Russia's hands." “War is death for Russia,” the retired prime minister argued. Mark my words: Russia will be the first to find itself under the wheel of history. She will pay with her territory for this war. It will become the arena of a foreign invasion and internal fratricidal war … I doubt that the dynasty will survive too! Russia cannot and should not fight.” Thus, Durnovo did not write anything in his "Note" that was not said by other opponents of drawing Russia into the war with Germany; it is another matter that he did it most vividly, accurately and intelligibly. Russia will be the first to find itself under the wheel of history. She will pay with her territory for this war. It will become the arena of a foreign invasion and internal fratricidal war … I doubt that the dynasty will survive too! Russia cannot and should not fight.” Thus, Durnovo did not write anything in his "Note" that was not said by other opponents of drawing Russia into the war with Germany; it is another matter that he did it most vividly, accurately and intelligibly. Russia will be the first to find itself under the wheel of history. She will pay with her territory for this war. It will become the arena of a foreign invasion and internal fratricidal war … I doubt that the dynasty will survive too! Russia cannot and should not fight.” Thus, Durnovo did not write anything in his "Note" that was not said by other opponents of drawing Russia into the war with Germany; it is another matter that he did it most vividly, accurately and intelligibly.another thing is that he did it most vividly, accurately and intelligibly.another thing is that he did it most vividly, accurately and intelligibly.
It is important to pay attention to the date of submission of the "Note" to the emperor (February 1914), which is far from accidental. The fact is that on January 30, 1914, the resignation of the Chairman of the Council of Ministers V. N. Kokovtsov, and the conservatives have a chance to achieve a reorientation of the country's foreign policy. The pressure exerted on the sovereign by Durnovo was continued by his associates. M. A. Taube reports in his memoirs about two secret meetings of the St. Petersburg "Germanophiles" in March 1914, at which it was recognized that Russia was not ready for a military clash with the Austro-German bloc, and entry into the war for another three to four years would be for her by an act of "political suicide." In this regard, at a meeting of the Imperial Russian Historical Society, which took place on March 26 in Tsarskoe Selo under the chairmanship of Nicholas II,conservatives tried to convince the king of the need to avoid war by rapprochement with Germany. However, Nicholas II, according to the memoirist, limited himself to the remark that as long as he reigns, peace will not be disturbed by Russia.
The proponents of the orientation towards Germany did not confine themselves to promoting their views in the ruling circles of Russia. In February 1914, one of the most influential Russian conservatives, the publisher of the magazine "Grazhdanin", Prince V. P. Meshchersky published an article in the Austrian newspaper Neue Freie Presse, where he argued that a pan-European war would have catastrophic consequences for Russia. The prince saw the only way out in the rapprochement of Russia with Germany and Austria-Hungary until the restoration of the Union of the Three Emperors. For this, in Meshchersky's opinion, Russia should have given up on the Balkans, once and for all abandoning Slavophil illusions and Pan-Slavist political projects. The newspaper Zemshchina, which was the mouthpiece of the Union of the Russian people headed by N. Ye., has consistently advocated the reorientation of Russian foreign policy. Markov.
According to this publication, the Entente was an artificial combination created by the Anglo-Saxons with the aim of confronting Russia and Germany in the war and thus simultaneously weaken its two main competitors.
"Zemshchina" convinced its readers that there were no insurmountable contradictions between Russia and Germany, and that an alliance of these major continental powers of Europe would be beneficial to the peoples of both countries. Such an alliance would not only guarantee Russia the peace it desperately needs in Europe, but would also allow it to influence Austria through Berlin, keeping it from new aggressive actions in the Balkans.
P. N. is not alone. Durnovo was also in anticipation of the revolution that the war would cause. Other rightists spoke and wrote about this, as well as the fact that the Russian liberal opposition, having shaken the foundations of the empire, would quickly surrender its positions to the left radicals. NOT. As early as 1912, Markov warned opposition circles that the people would go either with the right or with the left, but not with liberals, who had nothing to do with the people. In 1914, Markov predicted that as a result of the war with Germany, "everyone will suffer, all states may collapse, and in their place will appear Attila, whose name is the Social Democrats …". Academician A. I. Sobolevsky, a member of the right-wing group of the State Council, also noted in one of his private letters:
“Our liberals take the Tsar by the throat and say: 'Give power to us.' But by themselves they are insignificant and there are no masses behind them."
Already during the war, in 1915, arguing about the opposition's attempts to "wrest radical reforms from power, up to the abolition of the Basic Laws," a member of the right-wing Duma faction V. N. Snezhkov, in an open letter to the State Duma deputies, warned that the result of the storming of power launched by the liberals could be “internal strife, strikes, barricades and other delights, and the undoubted result of all this is the acceptance of the most shameful conditions of the world, the surrender of Russia to the triumphant enemy, unheard-of betrayal in relation to the valiant Belgium, France, England and Italy, fruitless victims - streams of blood, millions of killed and maimed people, destroyed cities and villages, a devastated population, curses of the whole world …”. And at the very beginning of 1917, a member of the right-wing group of the State Council M. Ya. Govorukho-Otrok in the "Note" submitted to the emperor, drew attention to the fact thatthat the triumph of the liberals would first turn into a "complete and final defeat of the right-wing parties", then a gradual departure from the political scene of "intermediate parties" and, as a final, the complete collapse of the Cadet party, which for a short time will acquire a decisive role in the country's political life.
“… The latter, powerless in the struggle against the left and immediately lost all their influence, if they decided to go against them, would have been ousted and crushed by their own friends on the left. And then … Then there would be a revolutionary crowd, a commune, the death of a dynasty, a pogrom of property classes and, finally, a robber peasant."
One of the cadet leaders, V. A. In emigration, Maklakov was forced to admit that “in their predictions, the right-wingers turned out to be prophets”: “They predicted that the liberals in power would only be the forerunners of the revolution, surrender their positions to it. This was the main reason why they fought so hard against liberalism. And their predictions were confirmed in every detail: the liberals received from the hands of the Tsar his abdication, accepted from him the appointment to be the new power and, in less than 24 hours, surrendered this power to the revolution, convinced [Grand Duke] Mikhail [Alexandrovich] to renounce, chose to be revolutionary, and not appointed by the sovereign by the government. The rightists were not mistaken in the fact that the revolutionaries in power will not resemble those idealists that Russian liberals traditionally portrayed them as …”.
He discovered remarkable intelligence and the ability to make correct predictions
Thus, in spite of the fact that the autograph of "Notes" by P. N. Durnovo, as well as its printed copy, which could be confidently attributed as pre-revolutionary (if such existed at all, since it cannot be ruled out that the "Note" was distributed by the author in typewritten copies), unfortunately, are not known to modern researchers, listed the above facts testify in favor of its authenticity and exclude the possibility of fabricating this document by both German, emigre and Soviet publishers. The authenticity of the Zapiska is also evidenced by the obvious similarity of Durnovo's arguments with the pre-war views of many Russian conservatives, as well as their identical assessment of the prospects for Russian liberalism and revolution. The political circumstances of the beginning of 1914 also leave little doubt thatthat the "Note" was submitted to the king in February of this year.
However, doubts that appear from time to time about the authenticity of the "Note" are quite understandable. After all, P. N. Durnovo, who came true almost to the smallest detail, containing, according to one of the assessments, the foresight of the situation "with photographic accuracy" cannot but amaze. E. V. Tarle, in his article published in 1922, called the analyst Durnovo a "logically strong attempt" to destroy the Entente and avoid war with Germany. Being an ideological opponent of Durnovo, he nevertheless admitted that "intellectually it is not necessary to deny his mind in any case", and the "Note" itself and the thoughts expressed in it are full of foresight of "extraordinary strength and accuracy", "Marked with the seal of great analytical power." At the same time, calling Durnovo's composition "the swan song of the conservative school", Tarle noted an important point in it,which often eludes researchers who turn to this "Note". The historian quite rightly pointed out that the "Note" is by no means Germanophile in nature, because not a single line of it says a word about the need to break off Russian-French relations. Rejection from the right-wing politician is only caused by the rapprochement between Russia and England, which dooms Russia to a conflict with the German Reich. At the same time, Durnovo appreciated the Franco-Russian alliance, which made it possible to achieve a stable European balance. “His (Durnovo - author's) insight in almost everything that he says about the probable grouping of powers is indisputable; strong is his criticism directed against the fashionable outcry in 1914 against German domination; convincing indications of the uselessness and futility for Russia of a possible victory, the grave economic consequences of the war in any outcome ",- stated Tarle, who found only one important miscalculation in the conservative analyst - Durnovo's conviction that a war with Russia is unnecessary for Germany.
And it's hard to disagree with that.
Durnovo's conviction in the possibility of creating a Russian-German alliance was indeed the most vulnerable point of the Note. Despite the conviction of Russian conservatives that Berlin does not need a Russian-German military clash, in practice the situation was different.
Strictly theoretically, PN Durnovo, as well as some other Russian conservatives, was absolutely right that the war against Russia itself was not necessary for Germany, assessing the real consequences of such a military conflict for the Reich; but in practice it was Germany that was striving for this war, unleashing it in the summer of 1914. However, at the same time, Durnovo, according to E. V. Tarle perfectly “understood what an impermissible, disastrous thing to do - to walk with a match in a powder magazine, when you cannot be sure of your tomorrow. The place where he speaks of the waves of movement that the legislature will no longer cope with, vividly recalls Montaigne's words that the people who start and raise a storm never themselves use its results. She will sweep them away first. In the aphorism of the French skeptic of the 16th century and in the prophecy of the Russian reactionary of the 20th century, one and the same idea is embedded. “Durnovo was a Black Hundred and a reactionary,” wrote M. P. Pavlovich in the preface to the first publication of the full text of the "Note" in Soviet Russia, - but, undoubtedly, in assessing the nature of the future war, the role of the Entente in it, on the one hand, Russia, on the other, in anticipating the outcome of the war, he discovered a remarkable mind and ability to make correct predictions. Compared to Durnovo, all the luminaries of our liberal opposition and the Socialist-Revolutionary party, the Milyukovs, Maklakovs, Kerenskys and others, turn out to be miserable pygmies in the mental sense, who did not understand the meaning of the world war at all and did not foresee its inevitable outcome. Pavlovich in the preface to the first publication of the full text of the "Note" in Soviet Russia, - but, undoubtedly, in assessing the nature of the future war, the role of the Entente in it, on the one hand, Russia, on the other, in anticipating the outcome of the war, he discovered a remarkable mind and ability to make correct predictions. Compared to Durnovo, all the luminaries of our liberal opposition and the Socialist-Revolutionary party, the Milyukovs, Maklakovs, Kerenskys and others, turn out to be miserable pygmies in the mental sense, who did not understand the meaning of the world war at all and did not foresee its inevitable outcome. Pavlovich in the preface to the first publication of the full text of the "Note" in Soviet Russia, - but, undoubtedly, in assessing the nature of the future war, the role of the Entente in it, on the one hand, Russia, on the other, in anticipating the outcome of the war, he discovered a remarkable mind and ability to make correct predictions. Compared to Durnovo, all the luminaries of our liberal opposition and the Socialist-Revolutionary party, the Milyukovs, Maklakovs, Kerenskys and others, turn out to be miserable pygmies in the mental sense, who did not understand the meaning of the world war at all and did not foresee its inevitable outcome. Compared to Durnovo, all the luminaries of our liberal opposition and the Socialist-Revolutionary party, the Milyukovs, Maklakovs, Kerenskys and others, turn out to be miserable pygmies in the mental sense, who did not understand the meaning of the world war and did not foresee its inevitable outcome. "Compared to Durnovo, all the luminaries of our liberal opposition and the Socialist-Revolutionary Party, the Milyukovs, Maklakovs, Kerenskys and others, turn out to be miserable pygmies in the mental sense, who did not understand the meaning of the world war and did not foresee its inevitable outcome."
Andrey Ivanov, Boris Kotov