They say that there are no prophets in their own country. But it depends on how you look … And in Russia today there are followers of Nostradamus, who are guided by a scientifically based approach, rigorous IT calculation and mathematical analysis of the development of events.
Such, for example, is the well-known popularizer of science Ilya Kabanov, who delivered a lecture in Chelyabinsk “The Next 30 Years” within the framework of the federal project “Energy of Science” of the network of information centers for atomic energy (ICAE). He is a popular blogger, editor-in-chief of the scientific almanac metkere.com, a scientific columnist for the Taiga.info website.
What awaits humanity - cosmic threats and genetic mutations? When will there be cures for all diseases and robotic pilots? Will we master the planets of the solar system and will an inexhaustible source of energy be found? Ilya Kabanov shared his forecasts with the readers of "UP".
Space Attacks
What lessons, in your opinion, can be learned from the fall of the Chelyabinsk meteorite?
- He clearly showed how vulnerable humanity is to the forces of nature, unpredictable attacks from space. The meteorite burst into the atmosphere with great speed from the sunny side, and astronomical stations did not have time to detect it. The residents of Chelyabinsk were very lucky that it exploded at a high altitude and there were no casualties.
To this can be added environmental pollution, global warming, melting glaciers, more frequent hurricanes, tsunamis and volcanic activity … In addition, supernova explosions can threaten the very existence of mankind, and solar flares can disable all electronics and plunge us into the XIX, and then the stone age. We are not yet technologically capable of preventing these disasters. It is necessary to prepare for such threats in advance by combining the efforts of scientists from all over the world. So, for this, along with the Hubble orbital telescope, the sky will be observed by its replacement, James Webb, which is already being prepared for launch into space.
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Can we live on other planets if we have to leave our native Earth?
- Preparations are already underway for the creation of the first colonies on the Moon and Mars. For this, for example, Russia is creating a reusable spacecraft "Federation". Of the possible objects of colonization, the satellite of Saturn, Titan, is very interesting. This is the only celestial body in the solar system, besides the Earth, where the stable existence of a liquid has been proven. Cassini-Huygens imagery in 2004 showed that its surface is mostly water ice and its atmosphere is nitrogen, with methane and ethane added to form clouds. On the surface of Titan there are methane-ethane "lakes" and "rivers", and the air pressure is about 1.5 times higher than the earth. Despite the low temperature, Titan is compared with the Earth in the early stages of its development, and it cannot be excluded that the existence of the simplest forms of life is possible in the satellite's reservoirs.
“But in order to reach the stars and planets, you need to create a heavy-duty" armor "that will withstand the conditions of space
- Scientists from SUSU are working on the development of new materials for rockets in Chelyabinsk, and in Moscow - their colleagues from MIPT, for example, Professor of Physics and Technology Artem Oganov. He spoke about his new products - composite materials based on carbon and plastic, which are superior in strength to alloy steel. They are already being used in the rocket and aircraft industry, the defense industry, and many other industries. Such spacecraft will withstand both cosmic radiation and impacts of micrometeorites.
I will add that going into space in the coming years can make it very difficult for orbital debris, which is already posing a serious threat to the ISS. India's recent demonstration of an anti-satellite missile that added "debris" showed that this could be a big problem. Scientists are developing projects on how to get rid of the garbage threat using lasers, special "grids" and energy pulses.
Health vaccine
Our existence is also threatened by new diseases …
- Bacteria mutate, adapting to antibiotics, and it becomes increasingly difficult to cure diseases. How to overcome resistance - addiction of the body to drugs? And is there an alternative to antibiotics, which “cure one thing and cripple the other,” and they persist for a long time both in meat and milk? Because of this, a new technical regulation of the Customs Union recently had to be adopted, prohibiting the sale of such unsafe products for health. But science does not stand still: last year, the American FDA announced the creation of two universal vaccines - against any strains of influenza and forms of cancer. Such sensations should be treated with caution, but the fact that scientists are approaching the solution of these global problems inspires hope.
And what about the predisposition to disease at the genetic level?
- Scientists are struggling with this. Several years ago, the CRISPR genome editing technology was tested, which greatly simplified and reduced the cost of this most complex process. Its possibilities are almost endless - from the creation of targeted drugs, taking into account the characteristics of the human body, to cloning. Twins were recently cloned in China with the help of genetic engineering, whose body, according to the authors of the know-how, has become immune to HIV. True, in Russia and many other countries, experiments with the human genome are prohibited, and research is conducted on animals.
And what did geneticists find out about the origin of our species - Homo sapiens?
- It turned out that we all descend "from one Eve": along the female line, our genetic lines converge in the interval from 100 to 230 thousand years ago, and on the male line - from 160 to 300 thousand years ago. And for a long time several species coexisted in parallel: Homo sapiens (aka Cro-Magnon), Neanderthal and Denisovan type. In Altai, in the Denisovskaya cave, the remains of an ancient man were found, the genetic analysis of which showed that this is a completely new species. And recently, scientists reported that they found in the Philippines the remains of another species of man who lived simultaneously with Sapiens, Neanderthals and Denisovans.
Let me also remind you that Homo sapiens left Africa in due time, settling in Europe and Asia as the glaciers retreated. Therefore, oddly enough, the Africans, especially the pygmies of Zaire and the Bushmen of South Africa, have the purest genome of homo sapiens, while in our country it is with an admixture of Neanderthal and other “alien” genes.
By the way, I myself became an object of genetic research, having provided my DNA for experiments to the American laboratory 23andme. As I was told, based on my genome, eight scientific papers have been prepared, including those devoted to the study of genetic predisposition to depression.
Will artificial intelligence replace humans?
- Artificial intelligence does not have creativity, strategic thinking, and a machine can never replace a person. Much more important is in whose hands it falls, what orders it carries out. This means that a scientist must share responsibility for the fate of his offspring, have a clear forecast of what benefit or harm it can bring.
Author: Evgeny Anikienko