Will the Earth withstand overpopulation? The issue of the size of the world population is very acute. Its exponential and uneven growth can be disastrous if we don't prepare for it.
In 2013, humanity reached 7.9 billion people. It is expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030 and 9.6 billion by 2050. If these numbers are not enough, consider 11.2 billion in 2100.
Most of the growth will come from nine specific countries: India, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Nigeria, the United States, and Indonesia.
Population growth rates
It is not an increase in fertility that leads to growth. Rather, it will play a role in increasing life expectancy. World population growth peaked in the 1960s and has been steadily declining since the 70s. The 1.24% rate is the growth rate recorded ten years ago and occurs annually. Today it is 1.18% per year.
Population growth in developed countries has slowed because it is too expensive for a large part of the population to have a child, especially after the Great Recession, when young people are forced to spend a lot of time on education and building their careers, spending their most fruitful years in lecture halls and office rooms.
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Although fertility rates are generally declining globally, the report says the researchers used a “low-variant” population growth scenario.
Meanwhile, families with large numbers of children are becoming a thing of the past, and public health officials are warning that a "silver tsunami" is coming. Globally, the number of people aged 60 or over is expected to double by 2050 and triple by 2100.
As young people do not replace adult residents, the number of taxpayers for Medicare and overseas for socialized medicine will decline.
Europe's population is projected to fall by 14%. Society in European countries, like Japan, is in favor of correcting population aging. But a fertility deficit probably won't fix the problem.
In the United States, a number of Alzheimer's patients are expected to bankrupt Medicare as no treatment guidelines have been found. “The developed countries have pretty much cornered themselves,” said Karl Haub. He is the senior demographer at the Population Information Bureau.
Role of African countries
Most of the growth will be in developing countries. Moreover, more than half is predicted in Africa, on the financially poorest continent, whose resources are almost exhausted. The 15 high-income countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to increase the number of children per woman by just over 5% (five children per woman). The population of Nigeria is likely to surpass the population of the United States by 2050, becoming the third most demographic.
The population in developed countries is expected to remain unchanged, remaining stable at 1.3 billion. In some developing countries, such as Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, India and China, the average number of children per woman is declining rapidly. This trend is expected to continue.
India's population is expected to surpass that of China by 2022
We often think of China as the most populous country in the world, but India is set to catch up by 2022. At this point, 1.45 billion citizens will live in both countries. Subsequently, India is expected to surpass China. As India's population grows, the number of Chinese citizens will decline.
Life span
In terms of life expectancy, there will be an increase in both developed and developing countries. Globally, life expectancy is likely to be 76 years between 2045 and 2050. If nothing changes, she will reach 82 years of age from 2095 to 2100.
Towards the end of the century, people in developing countries will be able to expect to live until age 81, while in developed countries 89 will become the norm. Nevertheless, there are fears that the developing world will suffer even more from this phenomenon than it is today.
“The concentration of population growth in the poorest countries poses a multitude of problems that will make it harder to eradicate poverty and inequality, foster the fight against hunger and malnutrition, and expand education and health care,” says Wilmot. He is the Director of the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Reducing resources
It will be very difficult for humans to endure resource depletion. Minerals, fossil fuels, wood and water can become scarce in several regions of the world.
Because wars are often resource-driven, and water use is expected to rise to 70-90% by mid-century, without improved agricultural practices and smarter use, it could become as expensive as oil and drag countries into violent conflicts. Water supplies in some regions are already a big problem. India and China, for example, have already clashed twice over this resource.
Climate change
Climate change is also likely to trigger a decline in arable land, resulting in food shortages as well as loss of biodiversity. These processes are likely to occur at a rapid pace.
To help reduce the world's population, UN researchers suggest investing in reproductive health and family planning. These programs are especially relevant in developing countries.
This report is compiled using data from 233 countries providing demographic data as well as the 2010 Census.
Maya Muzashvili