According to biophysicist Alex Kouvald of Newcastle University (UK), the likelihood that the so-called von Neumann probes - self-replicating devices that are the product of alien civilizations - are floating around the Universe is extremely low. Rather, even if they exist, it is not a fact that we will find them, the scientist believes.
The ubiquitous probes
The concept of self-replicating machines, including those with so-called artificial intelligence and capable of independently propagating, multiplying and evolving as they conquer the surrounding space, was put forward by the American mathematician John von Neumann. In particular, it is assumed that such devices can be engaged in research in deep space at a considerable distance from the planets where the civilizations that created them live.
Meanwhile, nothing similar has yet been recorded within the observable Universe, unless, of course, we take into account the yellow press reports …
Kouvald believes that, firstly, such probes may not exist at all, since there are no civilizations capable of creating them. Secondly, if we assume that they actually exist, then it is possible that their creators have come up with an excellent disguise system that prevents us from detecting them. Do not forget that a civilization capable of developing something similar is probably ten times more progressive than ours …
The principle of error
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But Kouvald did not want to be unfounded and presented scientific evidence of the impossibility of the existence of von Neumann probes, at least within our Galaxy. To this end, he considered a self-organizing computer model capable of evolving over time.
Observation of the development of such a model showed that in the process of evolution, errors and errors will inevitably arise: sooner or later the probe will certainly break, and the process of reproduction of copies will stop before the next “daughter” is reproduced … In general, such a system cannot be considered stable.
Consequently, such probes can “swarm” only close to the place of their initial “birth”. Even if they turn out to be relatively "tenacious", they will still move at a maximum speed an order of magnitude lower than the speed of light in a vacuum. So it should take them half a million years to settle down the Milky Way.
And then only in the most optimal case. Thus, the minimal chance of encountering self-organizing alien research machines remains only if their "home" planets are located in relative proximity to the Earth.
This is another explanation for the famous Fermi paradox. According to him, if other intelligent civilizations existed in our Galaxy, then we would have already encountered them. True, some researchers believe that huge cosmic distances and a relatively small probability of the emergence of intelligent life even on terrestrial planets interfere with contacts between inhabitants of different planets.
Revised Drake Equation
Back in 1961, professor of astronomy and astrophysics, Francis Donald Drake, developed a formula that determines the hypothetical number of intelligent civilizations with which we could come into contact. The Drake equation includes such parameters as the number of stars formed annually in our Galaxy, the proportion of stars that have their own planets, and, finally, the probability of the origin of life on planets where there are suitable conditions for this.
Recently, a group of astrophysicists from the University of Rochester stated that Drake's formula could be simplified from seven constituent elements to two. This discovery is based on observations of exoplanets.
In particular, only one fifth of the stars have planets suitable for the appearance of life on them. Moreover, the probability of the emergence of just intelligent life there is 1 in 10 billion trillion for the Universe and 1 in 60 billion for our Galaxy. The uniqueness of humanity can be said if the probability of the emergence of intelligent life on an exoplanet located in the observable part of the Universe is 10-22.
Also, we cannot know anything about the lifetime of these hypothetical intelligent civilizations. So, our civilization is only 10,000 years old - before that it was not technological …
If we consider the age of the observable Universe to be approximately 13.7 billion years, then, most likely, most other civilizations are already extinct by this time, therefore, there is no hope of contact with them. But if this is so, then it is clear that humanity is not at all unique, and civilizations like ours have appeared before and will begin to appear in the future …