According to demographic forecasts, Islam will become the first world religion by about 2070, while France will first of all expect a significant increase in the number of those who do not identify themselves with any of the confessions.
"The XXI century will be the century of religion, or it won't be at all." The famous phrase of André Malraux, which, as a mantra is repeated from generation to generation, really seems justified against the background of the current deafening rise of religions. The triumph of modernity, it would seem, should have forced them to retreat, but they are only expanding. By the middle of this century, Muslims should equal in number with Christians, and then bypass them. However, before moving on to this issue, the current dynamics should be considered.
Demographic forecasts of an increase in the world's population are superimposed on forecasts of an increase in the number of believers. It is difficult to say whether this number really refers to active believers, or simply includes people belonging to a particular religious tradition. The rise in spirituality compensates for the decline of some dogmas. In other conditions, the assertion of fundamentalism prevails. In any case, the geopolitics of confessions clearly leads to the expansion of the role of Islam in the world and gives a very original place for France.
Statistics
Religious statistics often resemble acrobatics. On the fantasy of some, the denial of others is layered. The process of ethnic and religious substitution on the one hand and joyful coexistence on the other. In order to clearly understand the situation, at least in terms of the stated beliefs, there is data. Futuribles magazine, year after year, talks about attempts to assess the religious processes and transformations in the world.
Among the sources of forecasts, The Pew Research Center should be highlighted, which presented a serious and detailed study last spring. It relies on data available from around the world on the difference in fertility and mortality rates, migration flows and (most difficult) the transition of people from one faith to another. The last point is a technical innovation: it is about assessing changes in religions, be it the departure of former followers or the emergence of new ones. The methodology is very subtle, but this work is very important, because it is necessary to get rid of a mostly hereditary view of religious affiliation.
Having dealt with these methodological clarifications, one can ask ourselves the following question: what might the religious picture of the world look like in 2050? Christians will probably retain the majority. Islam in all its diversity will grow faster than all other religions. During this period, the number of Muslims could grow by 75% (+1.2 billion), Christians - by 35% (+750 million), and Hindus - by 34%. By 2050, Muslims (2.8 billion, 30% of the world's population) will be about the same as Christians (2.9 billion, 31%). Finally, Muslims will bypass Christians only in 2070.
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The centers will shift
Geopolitically, the centers of Christianity and Islam will shift. India will remain a largely Hindu country, but by 2050 its Muslim population will be larger than Indonesia and Pakistan. In Europe, Muslims will account for 10% of the population. 40% of Christians will live in Central and South Africa. Buddhists will remain concentrated in Asia with a stable population of 500 million. There are data on "folklore" religions (African animists, natives' beliefs, various cults), but in any case they play only an extremely insignificant role.
The intersection of the charts of Islam and Christianity (perhaps it will happen later than it is commonly believed) stems mainly from the current fertility rates: 2.5 children per woman on average in the world, 1.6 for Buddhists, 3.1 for Muslims, 2, 7 for Christians, 2.4 for Hindus and 1.7 for “non-aligned” (atheists, agnostics, people without religious affiliation). Their ranks will noticeably grow, but their relative share will decline (from 16% to 13%). In some countries, the growth of this group will be the most visible of all changes. This will be the case in the United States and, oddly enough, in France.
The former “eldest daughter” of the church was a predominantly Christian (63%) country in 2010. The current 7.5% Muslim proportion will rise to 11% by the middle of this century. However, the most impressive change will be the increase in the share of non-aligned from 28% to 44%. More and more believers in the world and fewer in France. France will be the religious exception in a world that will become overwhelmingly Muslim in the third quarter of the 21st century. Our secularists have reason to rejoice.
Religion is not a constant
But all these figures are just forecasts that are made using the continuation of current trends. Therefore, everything will not necessarily be so. Looking ahead means paying attention to forecasts. And also opposite scenarios and possible changes. Religions try to make a connection with the transcendental, but they themselves cannot be called constant. They change. And while demographic trends are definitely changing the world, the future of great religions is shrouded in fog.
Be that as it may, with France everything is more or less clear. The Pew Research Center draws on French statistics and concludes that out of 40 million Christians (in 2010), only 30 million will remain by 2050. This is despite the fact that the total population of the country will increase by 6 million people. Recall that the numbers are based on people's self-determination in relation to tradition or culture, not religious practice. The question is sociological, not theological.
According to the same data (we emphasize again, they rely on self-determination, and not traditions and rituals), the current Muslim population of France is estimated at 4.7 million people, which in general corresponds to classical estimates and extrapolations. By 2050, the number of Muslims should increase to 7.5 million (the strength of their faith is out of the question). During the same period, the number of Buddhists will increase from 280,000 to 400,000, and Hindus from 30,000 to 70,000.
The Muslim population will increase by 60%, and the number of non-believers will grow from 18 to 31 million, or 72%. In any case, the exact numbers do not really matter here: the main thing is general trends. And they paint a very interesting picture.
Julien Damon