Countries that have signed the Paris Climate Agreement advocate limiting global warming to "well below 2 degrees Celsius." This is due to the concern of the world powers about the long-term rise in sea levels. A warmer climate will inevitably lead to ice melting. You don't need to have computer modeling skills to predict a global catastrophe.
Most of the glaciers will turn to water
When the average air temperature on the planet rises, the glaciers begin to actively melt. Sooner or later, most of the ice will replenish the world's oceans. In some cases, this process can become irreversible. This entails a rise in sea levels and a change in the shape of coastal topographic maps. The dwarf island states are at risk of being completely submerged.
Paris Agreement imposes a limit
Despite the fact that an increase in average temperatures of 2 degrees will take some time (a century or even more), the consequences of this process for coastal zones are already being felt. This is why the Paris Agreement was born, according to which the countries that signed it pledge to make every effort to limit warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
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What metrics are the starting point?
Indicators that can be taken as a starting point are not always clearly defined. However, many experts look back to the pre-industrial era and take the average temperatures of the second half of the 19th century as a basis. The widespread growth in the number of businesses in the 20th century did not immediately lead to an increase in average temperatures.
The first wake-up call was a warning from environmentalists in 1980. Then the world community was confronted with the fact of an increase in average indicators by 0.4 degrees Celsius. Since then, the trend has accelerated rapidly. The latest data from the Met Office says that in 2016 the average temperature rose by 1.2 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels. According to preliminary forecasts, 2016 will go down in history as the hottest year ever recorded.
How will our world change in the foreseeable future?
If the situation does not change, not much time will pass and the excess of the 19th century indicators will reach 1.5 degrees. According to the most pessimistic forecasts, this may happen in ten years. Other environmentalists are more positive and predict that the critical point will be reached by 2050. What will our world be like?
Extreme weather events will continue to occur. Depending on the climatic zones, winter thaws, prolonged downpours or abnormal droughts will continue. Further increases in average temperatures will accelerate the migration of populations in the wild. Some species will be endangered. The loss of biodiversity has already become acute in the oceans, where massive bleaching of coral reefs and the death of plankton are noted.
Plant prediction
Global warming occurs due to the increase in carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. This, in turn, affects the processes of photosynthesis and disrupts the acid-base balance of the environment. Ecologists predict a significant change in the composition of ecosystems due to soil acidification.
Inga Kaisina