What is the first question among the totality of topics that we would like to discuss with the aliens? Of course, this is: what do you actually want? Are you good guys or bad guys? Did you come to Earth as friends, as enemies, or as indifferent observers?
This question is the most important, since the existence of earthly humanity depends on it, but before considering the options for answers, let's try to establish some more facts about the civilization of aliens. Let me remind you that besides ufologists, there are quite sane scientists on Earth who are dealing with the problem of CETI (Communication with Extraterrestrial Intelligence), in other words, the problems of searching and communication with extraterrestrial intelligence. They are mostly astrophysicists, but among their international community are biologists, philosophers, and computer scientists. They deal with such issues:
- an approximate estimate of the number of planets in the Galaxy that would be suitable for human life (S. Dole, 1970);
- an approximate estimate of the number of civilizations in the Galaxy that are simultaneously at a high level of technological development and thus capable of contact (F. Drake, 1971);
- possible ways of communication between highly developed stellar cultures;
- sending messages to the Universe using radio telescopes and searching for signals from intelligent beings;
- search for astro-engineering structures in our Galaxy - beacons, structures such as the Dyson sphere, etc.
A typical example of serious publications in which these issues are considered are the well-known book by IS Shklovsky "Universe, Life, Mind" (ist. 17) and collections "The problem of the search for extraterrestrial civilizations" (source 18) and "The problem of the search for life in Of the Universe”(ist. 19). Let me note that a number of points related to the CETI problem (in particular, the interpretation of the Dole and Drake formulas) are available to the general public in the popular science book by A. S. Downward "Discovery of the Universe - past, present, future" (ist. 20), to which I refer all those interested in these questions. By virtue of the adopted First Postulate, they do not concern our topic.
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However, we will use the classification of civilizations proposed by the corresponding member of the Academy of Sciences N. S. Kardashev. Generally speaking, they can be classified in different ways: according to their ability to overcome environmental crises, according to the size of the area of developed space, according to the available speed of movement in space and other parameters. Kardashev chose such a universal characteristic as the power-to-weight ratio. According to it, civilizations can be divided into three types:
I - those who own energy resources within their planet (an example is our earthly society);
II - those who own the energy resources of their star system (let's add - perhaps several star systems);
III - owning the resources of the entire Galaxy (in this case it would be more correct to say "owning", since a type III civilization most likely exists in our Galaxy in the singular).
It is extremely doubtful that we are able to imagine such a supercivilization, to understand this Higher Mind and its goals, to understand the meaning of its actions and projects, even in the most crude approximation. Members of such a galactic community are supposed to be physiologically different from humanoids; perhaps they are intelligent plasma clouds, or neutrino bunches, or thinking stars, or some all-encompassing Cosmic Being, whose particles are stars, planets, and gas nebulae, and even you and me. I doubt that a Type III civilization would use artificial weapons; most likely, each of its members is a self-sufficient personality, as independent as possible from the external environment, capable of accumulating gigantic energy powers and affecting the environment due to the internal resources of its body - for example, blowing up or lighting stars,generating beams of energy or curling up space (whatever is meant by this mysterious terminology). But although we are unable to imagine such a powerful civilization, we can be sure of one thing: if she wanted to explore the Earth and earthly humanity, we would not have noticed it. If the research was conducted in secret, our instruments and senses would not tell us anything; in a different situation, we would perceive the research process as a manifestation of elemental forces. Why? Yes, by definition, as indisputable as our two axioms. Type III civilization is unknowable to beings like us; for them she is God and Miracle. And the ways of the Lord are known to be inscrutable.we can be sure of one thing: if she wanted to explore the Earth and earthly humanity, we would not have noticed it. If the research was conducted in secret, our instruments and senses would not tell us anything; in a different situation, we would perceive the research process as a manifestation of elemental forces. Why? Yes, by definition, as indisputable as our two axioms. Type III civilization is unknowable to beings like us; for them she is God and Miracle. And the ways of the Lord, as you know, are inscrutable.we can be sure of one thing: if she wanted to explore the Earth and earthly humanity, we would not have noticed it. If the investigation were carried out in secret, our instruments and senses would not tell us anything; in a different situation, we would perceive the research process as a manifestation of elemental forces. Why? Yes, by definition, as indisputable as our two axioms. Type III civilization is unknowable to beings like us; for them she is God and Miracle. And the ways of the Lord, as you know, are inscrutable.as our two axioms. Type III civilization is unknowable to beings like us; for them she is God and Miracle. And the ways of the Lord are known to be inscrutable.as our two axioms. Type III civilization is unknowable to beings like us; for them she is God and Miracle. And the ways of the Lord, as you know, are inscrutable.
But those aliens that are now circling above the Earth and flying into America in the amount of nine hundred are completely different. It was not without reason that I emphasized Their anthropomorphism, their command of speech, the presence of clothes and numerous technical devices. Undoubtedly, representatives of a type II civilization paid a visit to us, and we can only guess at what stage They are: either relatively recently they passed into the highest category from a state similar to ours, or they are approaching the border dividing classification types II and III (this we will discuss this in Chapter 11). It would seem that the first assumption is more correct: after all, UFOs are still not guaranteed against accidents, and their pilots are not guaranteed from captivity and subsequent dismemberment! Which would be absolute nonsense if they were "almost gods."
So, we are dealing with anthropomorphic representatives of type II civilization, whose motivations and goals for us, in principle, are cognizable. We may consider Them friends or enemies, adore Them or hate Them, but we firmly know that They are not gods. Moreover, we are confident that these creatures do not possess the practically limitless power of Type III supercivilization. They are unable or unwilling to conduct their research in a covert manner without disturbing us. In the first case (they cannot), the conclusion follows that there is insufficient technical equipment; in the second (they do not want to) - about a disdainful attitude towards us, earthlings; I would even say about a certain impudence. But in any situation we can try to understand their intentions - especially since we are vitally interested in this. What do they want, these sassy, annoying aliens?
I will present all the existing hypotheses in order and try to assess their reliability.
Hypothesis 1, "militaristic"
The aliens are going to conquer, destroy or wait for us to destroy each other (like compassionate vultures from the story of the same name by Isaac Asimov). In any case, our destiny is destruction or slavery, so you can not stand on ceremony with us: fly anywhere and even sometimes carry on soul-saving conversations with us, earthly savages.
Hypothesis 1 does not hold water. Slaves of type II civilization are not needed, robots are much more efficient and safer. Destroy us - no problem; you don't have to wait millennia for this. It would have been much easier to exterminate earthlings in antiquity, when there were few of us, and even now it is not difficult to do it, with our own hands - it is enough to launch two missiles at Moscow and Washington. As for the ethical considerations with which the compassionate Asimov vultures are tormented, they are suitable for a fantastic story, and not for a real strategy of capturing vital territories. Another thing is that in the event of a provoked war between earthly peoples, the aliens will get a radioactive gnaw; and here it is useful to ask: what did you guys snap with your beak before? For example, in 1917, when there were no atomic bombs yet?
No, the aliens are not going to take over the Earth, because they do not need it. The economy must be economical, as one of our late leaders said, and this principle is equally true for us and for the little green men. Why conquer Earth? There are many uninhabited planets in the galaxy suitable for colonization, capable of serving as sources of raw materials, and their improvement and development will cost less than any aggression.
You ask, how do I know about the many earth-like planets suitable for colonization? Yes, all from the same place, from the First Postulate! Since the aliens exist, it means that Their world also exists, another planet in the Galaxy, where life originated. The aliens have a huge space fleet, and it is unlikely that it is entirely localized in the solar system; what we are seeing only gives an idea of the scale of this fleet. Why was it created? To explore the Galaxy and look for something interesting in it - for example, worlds suitable for colonization (if the aliens are inspired by the idea of space expansion, which is not at all obvious). But no matter what They seek, their search is not hopeless, since otherwise They would not waste their resources on building a huge fleet, but would have cost a more modest scale (see Second Postulate). This means that if They are interested in planets for colonization, there are such planets in the Galaxy. This, of course, is only a hypothesis, but much more compelling than the assumption of the annexation of the Earth.
Hypothesis 2, "progressives"
Aliens are watching us and studying us, waiting for our civilization to move to a higher level and prove its intelligence and resilience. As soon as this happens, they will make official contact with us, be admitted to the Galactic Federation or the Empire of the Milky Way, and then overwhelmed with all sorts of gifts, from superluminal transgressors to immortality - in a word, finally civilized and pulled up to the middle galactic level. If this hypothesis is correct, then the aliens are a detachment of progressors, waiting in the wings (the term "progressorship" was borrowed by me from the Strugatskys).
This is unrealistic. At the end of the book, in Chapter 12, we will analyze in detail the strategy and tactics of progressorship and draw some sad conclusions on this score. Anticipating them, I will note that an attempt to have a positive impact on our civilization (at the stage that we have reached) is very dangerous and fraught with the most unexpected consequences, so the most reasonable thing for aliens is not to rush and not fuss. But, most likely, the idea of the future progress of aliens is just a sweet dream of humanity.
Hypothesis 3, "predator in a cage"
We earthlings are terrible bloodthirsty creatures, which the Universe has not seen; if we ever go out into deep space, into the operational galactic space, all other civilizations are covered. Foreseeing this, aliens of all sorts gathered in a warm company, caught up with a bunch of equipment and set quarantine over the Earth. If we come to our senses, then we will be left alone or accepted into the Federation, Union, Empire (or whatever they have organized between the stars); and if we don’t come to our senses, then at the moment when we make some discovery that allows us to reach other stellar systems, on this very epoch-making day they will grind us to dust. If we don't bend ourselves to that.
There is a variety of hypothesis 3, which I will present with reference to Solomon Shulman's book "Aliens over Russia". Shulman ascribes this hypothesis to Nicholas Roerich, who suggested that at times of all kinds of disasters, a person radiates some kind of psi-energy of the most unpleasant nature. Since there are enough disasters on Earth, and the population of our planet is constantly growing, this vile energy accumulates in near-earth space in increasing quantities and diffuses into space, clogging it up and interfering with the normal existence of more civilized races. Here they are, these races, and have come to us in order to prevent the spread of harmful energies. On this topic, I wrote the novel "I am an alien". At times I wonder how I know so much about aliens. Am I really an alien? And you,my dear reader? Have you noticed any oddities behind yourself?
For all its romanticism, hypothesis 3 seems unlikely. If the aliens were afraid of us, this would be the reason for Their active intervention in events on Earth, and we do not observe traces of such interference. I do not mean frightening actions like the bombing of our cities or widespread epidemics - after all, intervention can take much more humane forms. For example, the spraying of substances that affect reproductive capacity, which would reduce the population and would be for us earthlings, rather a blessing than a disaster. Then - a subtle tip about clean energy sources; for example, an efficient way of converting solar radiation into electricity would be very useful to us. We can offer other options that can, if not bring us to our senses, then curb in the most humane way, not to mention harsh measures.
You can note that any of these options requires a long and detailed study of the earth's situation - which the aliens may be doing. But remember that they have been doing this for a very long time, since the era of the Pithecanthropus or since the time of Ancient Egypt, and in this case the question is natural: how much can you study, guys? Isn't it time to get down to business? Or knock us bastards down, or suggest something sensible?
Hypothesis 4, "zoo of idiots"
We Earthlings are unique cretins. Nowhere in the Galaxy do intelligent beings exterminate, deceive, or humiliate each other, but on our idiot planet - please, in full growth! Militarily, we are not dangerous for the Galaxy (due to our own insignificance), and we are just a unique subject for study. And now they are studying us, quite a bit amazed.
The sarcasm with which I presented this hypothesis should not confuse you - it is quite likely, if we assume that we are not unique idiots, but simply idiots. I'm talking about cretinism inherent in any ancient underdeveloped society on Earth and in other worlds - and our society, from the point of view of aliens, is exactly that. They have been studying us for thousands of years for the sake of the progress of their own historical science, in order to obtain "living" information about what they once were.
There is, nevertheless, an embarrassing circumstance: such an action should have been carried out with maximum secrecy, so as not to violate the purity of the experiment. Experimenters and Their devices (for example, UFOs) should not hang over cities and rocket bases - especially since there is no need for this: all the most interesting can be seen from orbit and learn from television news. And in any case, experimenters should not fall into the hands of those who are being observed! This, as I noted earlier, is completely incomprehensible nonsense.
Hypothesis 5, "tourist"
We Earthlings are great guys. Peace, tranquility and boring things reign throughout the Galaxy, and our life is in full swing: wars, fights, political intrigues, funny Hollywood films, roulette and baccarat, police and terrorists, drugs and striptease. And all this, the further, the more! A unique civilization in terms of interstellar tourism! A little more, a little more - and we will turn into a universal Monte Carlo! The newcomers are just waiting for us to become quieter and safer for tourists.
A very dubious hypothesis. The society of aliens and Their lives are organized in a completely different way than ours (how exactly, we will talk in the following chapters), and our cheerful existence seems to them as a dense savagery. About the same as us - the Neanderthal hunt for a mammoth, followed by devouring it without salt and seasonings. Exotic, of course, but to enjoy it, you shouldn't travel to the Neanderthals. There are, after all, other safer ways: we have to watch a movie, and They have to project a Neanderthal mentogram in order to personally get involved in the stormy and interesting prehistoric life.
Hypothesis 6, "research"
We are not at all unique, but nevertheless present a worthy subject for research. The aliens are watching and studying us only out of scientific curiosity, not intending to either conquer the Earth, or act as progressors, or in any way use our planet in the future. This hypothesis is quite plausible, and I would consider it more plausible than all of the above. But two circumstances still remain unexplained: why the aliens are captured and why they do not conduct their observations covertly. The latter fact is especially incomprehensible: after all, it is well known that any device with which observations and measurements are made affects the phenomenon under study. In the natural sciences, one cannot abstract from this, and, it would seem,the same thing happens in ethnographic and sociological research - after all, a sociologist must not only study statistics, but also talk with people.
The aliens, however, do not need to talk to us and do not need to show themselves to us. For sixty or seventy years we have been shouting about ourselves to the entire Universe, and all kinds of information about us is spreading in all directions at a speed of about three hundred thousand kilometers per second. I am talking about radio and television broadcasts covering all aspects of terrestrial science and terrestrial activity: history and geography, biology and medicine, literature and all forms of art, natural science and current events. In addition, computer databases and the Internet have emerged. Is there something that we have not rang about ourselves using these means of communication? But they are available to aliens - as, probably, books from our libraries, which can be scanned by some clever devices straight from orbit.
Why, one wonders, go down and land with the risk of ending up in Hangar 18 at Wright-Paterson Air Force Base?
Hypothesis 7, "nomads of space"
Alien people are not interested in or are not the main subject of their interest; aliens are engaged in some kind of business in the solar system and on Earth, but sometimes, due to a coincidence of circumstances, they pay attention to people.
The assumption is not devoid of meaning, but the question immediately follows: what then are They doing? Perhaps they are mounting a navigation beacon somewhere on the rings of Saturn? Or a device for instant teleportation that will connect the solar system with a huge number of worlds included in the global galactic network?
There is one more reason, which is very weighty in my opinion (the assumption of a nomadic civilization was expressed by A. Burmakin in 1979 on the pages of the journal "Chemistry and Life" according to the statement of Solomon Shulman in the book "Aliens over Russia." But I met a similar hypothesis in works of science fiction writers - for example, James Blish's "Cities in Flight" and Dan Simmons "Hyperion").
A highly developed civilization may not be sedentary, based on planets, but nomadic, eternally wandering in its giant comfortable ships from star to star, from world to world. This makes some sense, since in an artificial structure, control over the habitat is completely in the hands of the crew, which is not threatened by environmental disasters, volcanic eruptions, supernova explosions and similar troubles. Perhaps such a nomadic armada has been in our solar system for several millennia, and the inhabitants of its cosmic cities replenish their storerooms by mining metals and minerals in the Asteroid Belt. For Them, the existence of life on Earth is a funny surprise, and some particle of their strength (negligible, I suppose) is directed to familiarize themselves with our planet.
Hypothesis 8, “charitable”. Aliens are the root cause of life on Earth. Once they seeded our planet with spores of life or conducted a genetic experiment on ancient primates, awakening their minds. This was done either for a charitable purpose or for a scientific purpose, but in any case They are our progenitors. They feel responsible (or are curious about what happened in the end) and therefore constantly follow us.
This assumption can be considered quite realistic, but it cannot be regarded as an independent hypothesis. Indeed, let us or our minds be created by aliens in the process of some titanic experiment in terms of its duration. So what? We are interested in another circumstance: what do They need now? And we have already tried to describe this within the framework of other hypotheses, and I will remind you of all possible options:
- hypothesis 1 - the conquest of the Earth;
- hypothesis 2 - progressor mission;
- hypothesis 3 - quarantine;
- hypothesis 4 - our uniqueness, stimulating the study of earthly civilization by other worlds;
- hypothesis 5 - entertainment and tourist;
- hypothesis 6 - we are not unique, but nevertheless they study us out of scientific curiosity;
- hypothesis 7 - they are not interested in us at all.
Any theories about how Homo sapiens appeared on Earth, in principle, add nothing to the above options. We can only assume that if aliens are the primary cause of the colonization of our planet by thinking beings, then They are likely to act within the framework of "progressor" or "research" hypotheses. Nice conclusion! At least we will not be destroyed and scared!
Hypothesis 9, "nebular"
The term "nebular" comes from the Latin "nebula" - fog, and until recently was used in cosmology to refer to hypotheses according to which the Earth and other planets of the solar system were formed from a primordial nebula; but now "nebularity" is a computer science term for "uncertainty," and I use that word in that sense.
None of the above hypotheses reflect the true goals of the aliens; they are incomprehensible and unknowable to us.
I can agree with the first premise, but the second seems to me doubtful. If none of hypotheses 1 - 8 are true, this is not the end, this does not mean that we cannot imagine the goals of the aliens at all. After all, they are creatures of flesh and blood, not plasma clouds! And we can guess what drives them - even if within the framework of some simple model that describes the essence, without complicated and incomprehensible technical details.
Is it so? Indeed, above I myself gave an example with an Andaman and an astrophysicist, for whom it is very difficult to agree on a telescope, the device of the Universe and astrophysical studies. Generally speaking, this example is far-fetched, and now we will analyze it in more detail, having found out that the "Andamanese-astrophysicist" situation is not equivalent to the "astrophysicist-alien" case.
First, neither we nor the aliens need to touch the conventional "telescope"; these are the very complex and incomprehensible technical details that are not required in the simplest modeling. Secondly, there is a colossal difference between the thinking of a savage and our astrophysicist: a savage thinks irrationally, while a scientist is used to operating with abstract categories and accepting any "crazy" hypotheses about the structure of the Universe. There is, finally, and third. If you take a one-year-old child from the Andaman Islands, raise him in our society and teach him at the university, then such a "Mowgli vice versa" will become a completely modern person. So the aliens could share with us some startling new information through child intermediaries; for this you just need to find a group of one hundred or two hundred earthlings,who would agree to go to the aliens and raise their children under Their careful guidance.
So, like many representatives of the exact sciences, I believe that concepts of very complex phenomena can be expressed within the framework of relatively simple and accessible models. Such a presentation itself is by no means a simple matter, but it is quite possible, and in order to support this thesis, I will cite a historical anecdote about Academician Leonid Isaakovich Mandelstam (1879-1944).
In the late twenties and early thirties, Mandelstam was one of the few Soviet physicists who perfectly understood the paradoxical theoretical constructions of Albert Einstein. Once Leonid Isaakovich was asked to give a popular lecture on the theory of relativity for non-specialists - it seems, for medical students. Mandelstam demanded a long time for preparation - a week or a month, I certainly don't remember. The petitioners were surprised. “Why do you need so much time? After all, you are well versed in these matters! " “I understand,” Mandelstam replied, “but the medical audience does not. And I have to figure out how to tell them about the theory of relativity clearly and understandably, without the use of mathematics and complex physical concepts."
They say that Leonid Isaakovich coped with this task brilliantly. Now look at the second of our axioms and ask yourself: are the aliens dumber than us? Hence the conclusion: if they wanted, they could present their purpose to us clearly, simply and understandably. And since such an exposition exists in principle, then we can reach it ourselves.
Author: Akhmanov Mikhail Sergeevich
