There is a tradition to take stock of the outgoing year and make forecasts for the coming year. This article aims to briefly highlight the trends that were most prominent in 2018 and those that will have an impact on 2019, how they will be combined with the previously outlined scenarios and strategies. The New Year is getting closer, and I am afraid that for many, its symbol will not be the kind Grandfather Frost, but Karachun, whose holiday was traditionally celebrated on this day
Short-term forecasts are often trivial and boring, as the most interesting, strong and hidden trends do not have time to unfold and manifest themselves in all their glory. So it will be in 2019, almost all of its events were laid down much earlier, we can only observe their development.
The world as a whole
Overall, 2018 was a good year for the world. The most important was the increase in the likelihood of the scenario of the world disintegrating into pan-regions (compared to the rest, this is a favorable scenario for Russia). A few years ago, talk about the collapse of the global world was perceived as a monstrous heresy. Now it has become so obvious and understandable that many supporters of right-wing liberal ideas sigh, avert their eyes and change the topic of conversation.
At the beginning of the year, the public did not see everything so unambiguously, an attempt was even made to save the unity of the right-wing liberal global world in the alliance of Finintern, China and Britain ("One Belt - One Road", etc.) - the Manticore strategy. Nothing happened and this scenario is actively being closed.
The world has also managed to avoid catastrophic scenarios with a big war of all against all. Neither in the Middle East nor around North Korea has a casus belli been created. There were attempts, but they turned out to be too sluggish and clumsy. The impression was that instead of James Bond, the brave soldier Schweik was sent on a mission. Especially beautiful is the story of missile launches in Syria, from which not a single camel was harmed, and the subsequent stories of the British and French about their participation. Compare that with the events of 2014, when the Boeing was dropped, or the tension of 2016, when old Clinton was preparing to try on the image of the second horseman - War.
What to expect for the world in 2019 - an increase in the tendencies of the collapse of the global world, an even greater degradation of global institutions, an increase in the isolation of regional markets, etc.
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There will be no new Bretton Woods and Yalta in the coming year - early, the parties are not ready for a meaningful, constructive dialogue. Not forgetting the collapse of the stock markets and the beginning of the Great Depression, this gun has been hanging for several years and can go off at any moment. We will see how much more the world financial system can balance on the brink.
Next, let's go over the main existing / potential geopolitical players.
US industrial / conservative elites
It was rightfully their year, the results of Trump's work with the team cannot but amaze:
- full control over the US Supreme Court;
- the actual victory in the third consecutive election, and this is the victory of the industrial elites - they took control of the Republican Party and strengthened their position in the upper house;
- the dismantling of laws and agreements of the right-wing liberal global world is going on successfully;
- the army and resources are gradually returning home, while it is possible to keep the processes under control without losing control;
- excessive independence in the underbelly is cleared - Iberoamerica.
We can say that it was not possible to take control of the Fed, that some of the special services are playing against Trump, etc., this is all true, but another key is the systematic strengthening of the positions of the US industrial elites. Time plays for them, the later active clashes begin, the more chances those who nominated Trump have.
What to expect in 2019 - a continuation of all of the above, Trump will not force the crash on the stock exchanges. He will systematically dismantle international treaties (the WTO is next), mock former allies in the Western world (selling weapons / goods and raw materials they do not need is two to three times more expensive, etc.). There will also be a leisurely withdrawal of troops and the transfer of bases to the "allies", well, and it's time to launch the scenario of the redistribution of the Middle East with the dismantling of Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
In the area of 2021, the threat of the beginning of an active stage of the civil war looms, do not forget about that.
Finintern / right-wing globalists
This was not their year, the rolling pennant of the main loser remains with them by right. The main task - the return of control over the United States, was not solved. Akela missed the third time - this is the diagnosis. There is only one option to win - turn the board over and / or play all-in.
The situation with the Istanbul Patriarch is indicative - for the sake of a controversial short-term, current benefit, financiers burned down a strategic asset, destroying the restriction that prevented the Slavs, namely Russia, from becoming the main one in the Orthodox Church and building their own project on its basis, without looking back at the interests of the crafty Greeks.
What to expect in 2019 - provoking a crash in the stock exchanges to trigger the Great Depression and Riot in the United States. There is a high risk of monstrous terrorist attacks (see Terminal scenario), an attempt on the life of Donald Trump (CIA …) and unexpected deaths of prominent faces of other projects. Personal integrity rules will no longer apply.
China
In 2018, the unthinkable happened, China's "genius" project ("One Belt - One Road") to become the leader of the global world sank. Who would have thought … The stupid "yanguijie" (overseas devils) did not appreciate the prospects and depth of ideas. At the same time, China began to correct demographic imbalances, which is very important if, in the future, the Celestial Empire dares to choose the “Great Sacrifice” strategy - solving problems and imbalances through mobilization for an external war.
What will happen next - the transition to the scenario "USA minus 70 years", i.e. China will begin to make a real yuan emission center, move to a negative balance of payments, actively increase the purchase of food products abroad and introduce their distribution among the population through public funds.
Continental elites of Europe
The continental elites of Europe and the Vatican were able to stop the invasion of neo-barbarians, crookedly, askew, but they could. An important turning point has taken place in public consciousness - the conservatives have ceased to be pariahs, they are increasingly coming to the fore in politics.
Look at how the role of the EU bureaucratic structures has decreased over the year, this is clearly seen in the attempts to stop the construction of Nord Stream 2. If earlier Brussels was perceived as an unpleasant and serious brake, now it is seen at the level of a small kabysdoshka, which is ready to join anyone, but as soon as the latter loses interest, it immediately shuts up and hides.
The latest NATO exercises demonstrated the level of the armies of European countries, it became clear to everyone that Europe can only be reassembled on a new core. France and western Germany can begin to get used to the role of the periphery of a new Europe, with its capital in Vienna.
2019 should further weaken pan-European institutions, but the collapse will come later. Preparations for militarization will begin in central and eastern Europe, and yes, the neighboring countries of the Serbs will tacitly support them in the fight against the Albanians. A new war and genocide in the Balkans will come later.
Britannia
Throughout 2018, Britain tried to minimize short-term losses from leaving the EU by uniting in the fight against an external enemy. This was done clumsily and comically - they killed a cat and indiscriminately made great scouts out of two small crooks and smugglers, breaking their entire business. The level of degradation of the political elite is enchanting.
Britain is trying to play in all directions (strategies), although it does not work out very well, but this does not upset them.
All British strategies require it to leave the EU, and no matter how difficult it is now, they will continue this path. The alternative to going out is the complete loss of long-term perspective and subjectivity.
What to expect in 2019 - active work to destabilize the EU, continue the exit, a long and tedious build-up of tension with Russia. And yes, the procedure for expropriating capital from foreigners will be launched.
Islamic world
The Salafi-Wahhabi project actually closed back in 2017, this year it was recorded and formalized. Turkey tried to become the new leader of the Islamic ummah, but nothing good came of it. Neither Ottomanism, nor Pan-Turkism, nor Pan-Islamism succeeded, which is not surprising.
In 2019, it is expected to escalate the conflict with the Kurds and help the latter from the Syrians, read Russia. For the arts with the Istanbul Patriarch will have to answer.
Latin America and India
As expected, Brazil failed to become the leader of the geopolitical project, and the networked left-liberal globalist elite has not yet realized itself. Let's wait, in 2019 nothing interesting and meaningful will be there.
With India, too, everything is clear - there is nothing interesting on the short-term horizon and there is no need to wait.
Russia
It is necessary to write about Russia separately, but I will say the key - the choice of the dominant strategy has not been made, there are many mistakes in the domestic sphere - pensions, VAT, Medvedev's government, economic policy, etc. If in foreign policy most of the actions were logical and relevant to the situation, then in domestic policy, instead of a grandmaster, he suddenly sat down at the board to play a maximum of the 2nd grade.
About the prospects of Russia in 2019, it will be necessary to make a separate assembly, but I really do not like the trends in the internal life of the country, the scale of the problems is growing rapidly.
Conclusion
The outgoing 2018 allowed us to look a little more calmly into the future of the world, greatly weakening the likelihood of catastrophic scenarios. The top winners of the year were the US industrial / conservative elites. The main losers are Finintern and China. Everyone else has lost more than won. Surprisingly, against the background of the surrender of positions and the deliberate weakening of the United States, Trump and Co. were able to spend the year very successfully, without giving away anything superfluous and "theirs."
Russia has unambiguously won in foreign policy, showing that it is capable of protecting even such a favorite of the West as Bashar al-Assad, but inside the country problems are starting to go to a critical level, which is extremely unpleasant.
The main risks for the world of 2019, I would call the beginning of the Great Depression, the assassinations of state leaders and monstrous terrorist attacks - the breaking of the rules of the game continues.
Karachun is coming …
ANDREY SHKOLNIKOV
