Forty-five years ago, futurists predicted that by the year 2000 humanity will experience stagnation in scientific development, which will lead to the collapse of civilization. The reason for such a gloomy forecast was the imminent "information explosion".
The ants that swallow the elephant every day
For the first time, scientists started talking about the threat of an "information explosion" in the 60s of the XX century. It was calculated that every ten years in science there is a doubling of new results, in connection with which the flow of information doubles every three to four years - and in information overproduction we will soon simply drown, being unable to master the flow of new information. And this will inevitably lead to stagnation in scientific development and, as a result, to the collapse of civilization.
There has long been a joke in the scientific community that "man is a creature whose most delicious food is information." From these positions, our contemporary can be compared to an ant that has to swallow an elephant every day. But the year 2000 is long over, and, according to research, the “critical information mass” capable of exploding the world by the time we read this material has already quadrupled. Where are the nightmarish consequences of the "information explosion" in the epicenter of which we continue to live? Did the predictions turn out to be wrong?
Let's not jump to conclusions. Indeed, even among scientists today there is no common opinion on this matter. Some argue that the problems have only been postponed for a while, while others - that the disaster is happening at this very moment, we just cannot yet fully assess its sad consequences. Who is right?
Waste factor
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Our psyche, with all its unique capabilities, has limitations. It has been experimentally proven that the brain of an ordinary person is able to perceive and process information accurately at a rate of no more than 25 bits per second (one word of average length contains just 25 bits). With such a speed of information absorption, a person can read no more than three thousand books in a lifetime. And then on condition that he will master 50 pages daily.
Such speed once allowed the most stubborn to master the basic knowledge accumulated by mankind by about the middle of life. Today, alas, this is no longer possible. A few decades ago, a new discovery or literary work immediately attracted public attention. Now, in the scientific field alone, several million books appear annually. And even if you study exclusively fresh literature, then for every page you read, there will be 10 thousand others, which are unrealistic to master. Experts have even introduced the definition of "waste factor" - for literature that is in zero demand (this is not only about works of art). German researchers conducted a study of the demand for 45 thousand scientific and technical publications in one of the Berlin libraries. And it turned outthat the "junk factor" worked for 90 percent of those books! This means that millions of pages containing the latest technical knowledge have never been read by anyone.
In a word, we manage to study only a small fraction of the constantly accumulating information - and this is still half the trouble. The problem is that the information we receive tends to quickly become outdated and requires replacement.
Half-life of actual knowledge
It is this playful but completely scientific term that denotes a period of time during which half of the information we have learned loses its value. And it keeps getting shorter. Today in the field of higher education this period is approximately seven to ten years, and in some areas (for example, in computer technology) it has been reduced to a year. This means that if you study in computer courses for 12 months, then by the end of them half of the information you receive will be useless: it will become outdated. All this resembles a situation when a person climbs up a descending escalator: only a few, and even then at the cost of incredible effort, manage to maintain the required "level", but it is worth slowing down a little - and …
Today, in the avalanche of information falling on us, only an "encyclopedically semi-educated person" who knows about everything, but not too deeply, can navigate - and there are very few of them. Basically, wanting not to be "on the bottom step of the escalator", people seek salvation in "narrow specialization" - the "narrower", the easier it is to maintain the level. As a result, more and more people live with less and less knowledge about the world …
There is so much nonsense in the world that it doesn't fit in my head
If the brain is overstrained, it drops what is not absolutely necessary. Who can boast that he remembers logarithms, Faraday's laws, the chemical formula of cellulose or the exact date of the reign of Vladimir II Monomakh? But we all learned this at school! We learned, but forgot - that is, we do not know again. The situation is aggravated by the emergence of technology designed for fools. Devices operating on the principle “push the button - you will get the result” create the illusion of meeting the requirements of the times. We easily use technical innovations, but a subconscious unwillingness to accept new information manifests itself in a kind of psychological incident: choosing the most "sophisticated" unit, rarely anyone tries to explore all of its capabilities. As a result, the novelty is operated half-heartedly at best …
I don’t know if you noticed that the psychology of teaching began to change in advanced schools and institutes? Previously, pupils and students were forced to memorize everything. Today, this is no longer pressed so zealously - it's great if a person remembers a formula or date, but if he easily operates with the material in which it can be found, this is also very good. This approach is seen as a kind of solution to the problem of the "information explosion" (not to mention saving the health of our overworked children): it is not necessary to remember everything, it is enough to learn the logic of thinking in different areas of knowledge and the ability to quickly find what is needed when needed.
Scientists offer solutions to information problems, one more fantastic than the other. For example, to implant computer microchips into the brain that could store colossal amounts of information. However, is this really such a fantasy? With the help of implanted microchips, doctors have already managed to restore mobility to several paralyzed patients. So, it is possible that microchips with additional memory are also a matter of the not so distant future. But no matter what scientists come up with, the reserves of our brain are still not unlimited.
It is possible that rampant alcoholism is one of the consequences of information stress that humanity is experiencing today. This is evidenced by the results of studies carried out at the Research Institute of the Brain of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences. Scientists have come to the conclusion that the threat of alcoholism lies in wait, first of all, for those whose brains are exposed to information reboots.
Experiments carried out on rats have shown that animals that had to look for food in a particularly complex labyrinth ended up preferring alcohol to water … This is worth considering.
Selection is natural and … unnatural
To create an encyclopedia that is capable of covering all the knowledge of mankind at any given time, it “will need to be republished at least annually, each time doubling the volume of material. And even if "the whole world" solve this problem, then who will be able to read everything that is written in such a book?
Experts see the way out in strict selection and screening of information - and this is already happening in all areas of knowledge. Indeed, such a process, for the time being, to a certain extent mitigates the consequences of the “information explosion”. But who can calculate how many priceless facts have already been forgotten and discarded just because they seemed superfluous to someone? And most importantly, who is “in charge of the truth”? It should not be forgotten that the judges in this case are ordinary people - moderately developed, moderately limited, with their own personal and departmental interests …
Simultaneously with this artificial selection of information, the process of "natural selection" takes place. Pop culture is replacing culture. Comic book Bibles and abridged classics are being thrown onto the market. An unspoken prohibition appears on television - not to say anything clever that goes beyond the knowledge of the “average” viewer. Subtle humor is replaced by "jokes", poetry of romances - cheap "jagi-jagi", exquisite speech - slang. And radio and TV presenters very naturally keep the overall low level, confusing cases and losing the thread of the conversation …
Perhaps all this was called the end of our civilization by futurologists of the 60s of the last century?
A. Maramon
»Interesting newspaper. Oracle No. 10 2012
