If humanity does not reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 2035, average annual temperatures by the end of the 21st century will rise by 4.5-5 degrees Celsius, scientists warn. This means that half of the world's population will die from weather anomalies incompatible with life, half will get involved in armed conflicts for the remaining resources, and a world war will break out.
Not the first time
The mass extinction of almost all life on Earth has occurred at least five times. One of them - the disappearance of dinosaurs - happened as a result of an asteroid fall, but the rest - due to a sharp warming of the climate caused by greenhouse gases.
notes science journalist Peter Brannen in The End of the World. Given the current rate of warming, by the end of the century, the planet will warm to these dangerous 4.5-5 degrees, Australian scientists believe. Unless, of course, over the next 16 years, humanity does not solve the problem with carbon dioxide emissions.
According to the researchers, the share of renewable energy sources - windmills, hydroelectric power plants, solar panels - in the energy balance of all countries should grow by two percent a year, otherwise it will be too late to do anything after 2035. Timely measures will cause average annual temperatures to rise by only two degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This is considered relatively safe. In this case, the consequences of climate change will not be so serious, and humanity will be able to cope with them.
Deadly heat
However, Swedish, Danish and British scientists are more pessimistic. Changes caused by safe levels of warming can trigger processes that humans cannot influence. First of all, we are talking about the melting of permafrost, the release of methane hydrates from the ocean floor and the disappearance of forests, which, in turn, will provoke an increase in average temperatures by another three to four degrees. As a result, most of the coral reefs will collapse, coastal areas will be flooded, and agriculture will suffer serious losses.
In addition, part of the world's population will experience abnormal heat at sufficiently high humidity levels. In such conditions, the body is not able to cool effectively, which is critical for survival. Therefore, it is highly likely that it will become impossible to live in huge territories in the equator region. Where weather conditions allow it not to be boiled alive, mortality from heatstroke will increase significantly. An international team of scientists has calculated that from 2031 to 2080, people will die much more often from too high temperatures. So, in Brazil, deaths from heat will increase by 770 percent, in the United States - by 400-525 percent, in Europe - by 400.
Increase in deaths from abnormal heat in 2031-2080. Illustration by RIA Novosti.
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The world is on the brink of war
When 128 thousand years ago in the territory of modern France, the average annual temperatures rose sharply by two degrees Celsius, the Neanderthals living there had to become cannibals. Warming has seriously changed the surrounding landscape - instead of meadows, forests have appeared, where it is much more difficult to hunt. And woolly mammoths and reindeer in the diet of ancient people were replaced by fallow deer, small rodents, turtles and snakes. Therefore, Neanderthals often had to replenish animal protein reserves at the expense of weaker relatives. Today, a warming climate is unlikely to turn people into cannibals, but it can provoke violent military conflicts. According to the work of scientists from Stanford University (USA), when the average annual temperature rises by two degrees (this is the most favorable scenario), the risk of armed clashes around the world increases by 13 percent. If the Earth warms up by four degrees, then the probability of hostilities increases to 26 percent. Moreover, having started within individual countries, these conflicts may well turn into a war of all against all. Already today, three to 20 percent of armed clashes in the world are due to climate change, experts say. Even small changes in temperature and changes in rainfall provoke violence - from conflicts between individuals to full-scale wars. Most often they occur with a sharp and significant increase in temperature. According to an international team of scientists, this may be due to the fact that heat can affect the biochemistry of the brain - neurotransmitters that regulate emotions will be destroyed. On the other hand, high temperatures promote the production of testosterone in the body, which in turnaffects the level of aggression of a person. That is why, year after year, the largest number of crimes and suicides is recorded in abnormally hot weather.
Diamonds in the sky
Even if all the conditions of the Paris climate agreement are fulfilled, it is almost impossible to stop the rise in average annual temperatures, experts are sure. However, there are chances to slow it down. In particular, if already now significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, then by the end of the century the Earth will only warm to a relatively safe two degrees Celsius. Scientists believe that the most effective ways to combat climate warming are the abandonment of personal cars, air travel and the transition to a vegetarian diet. But there are also more exotic options. In particular, researchers from Harvard University (USA) proposed to spray fine powders of diamonds and alumina in the atmosphere. This will reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface, which means it will cool the planet. Almost no one doubts that this method will work,but it's too expensive. Even if you use cheap artificial diamonds worth up to one hundred dollars per kilogram, the amount will be impressive. Indeed, to maintain the flow of solar radiation at the required level, hundreds of thousands of tons of powder will be required annually.
Alfiya Enikeeva