Chris Hadfield, Colonel of the Canadian Air Force and Canadian Space Agency astronaut who has completed three space flights (two on the Space Shuttle and one on long-term missions to the ISS) is known to the general public for his cover of the famous song "Space Oddity" by the late David Bowie. After retiring in 2013, Hadfield has nevertheless retained his interest in space, rockets, spacecraft, and even runs online master classes on space exploration.
Business Insider decided to interview Hadfield and ask him what he thinks about the future of rocketry and the three big players in the new space race: NASA's Space Launch System, SpaceX's Big Falcon Rocket and Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket.
The answer of the former astronaut is unlikely to please those who would like to witness the first landing of a man on Mars over the next one or two decades, let alone those who are going to settle on the Red Planet in the future.
“Personally, I don't think any of these three rockets will be able to get people to Mars. I doubt that any of them will be able to offer a practical way to get people to the Red Planet, as it would be very dangerous and time-consuming,”Hadfield said.
Most astronauts won't make it
Hadfield's opinion is based on the fact that all three rockets use the same fuel (plus oxygen) to launch from the surface of the Earth and give acceleration to the spacecraft installed on them.
“My guess is that we will never go to Mars with these three rockets and the engines they use. If only we don't have to do it,”said the former astronaut.
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NASA's new Space Launch System, expected to debut in the 2020s, will use engines fueled by a combination of liquid hydrogen and solid chemical fuels. Blue Origin, a privately held rocket company funded by IT tycoon Jeff Bezos, is also looking to use liquid hydrogen in its rocket. Elon Musk's SpaceX is betting on liquid methane because it believes it can mine it on the Martian surface.
Like other experts, Hadfield has no doubts that any of these three rockets can actually reach Mars. But Hadfield doubts that any of these missiles will be able to get to the Red Planet safe and sound. The likelihood of explosion, radiation, hunger and other possible problems will constantly threaten the safety of the mission.
“In fact, we could have sent humans to Mars decades ago. That is, the technology that was used to fly to the moon when I was still a child could take us to Mars. But the risk would be too high,”Hadfield said.
“Most of the crew of the ship that went to the Red Planet simply would not be able to reach. They would die. This is because our technologies are still very primitive."
Rocket designers are well aware of this. The NASA aerospace agency, for example, and the Russian cosmonautics, by personal example, were convinced that the conquest of space is a very dangerous enterprise, often capable of putting human life on the line. The same Elon Musk also constantly repeats that the first people who go to Mars on his rocket are likely to die.
“The first trip to Mars will be very dangerous. The risk of death will be extremely high. You just have to come to terms with this,”Musk said in 2016.
According to Hadfield, this risk should force us to be more patient and more intelligently move towards the main goal of getting people to Mars.
“In reality, we first need to clearly answer the question - why? Why should we go there? Why not just send robots there and use them to learn a lot more about Mars?"
Cross the vast ocean between Earth and Mars
Hadfield notes that the rockets, currently under construction, will be the first step on our journey to explore the solar system. However, using these ships to get people to Mars, located 300 million kilometers from Earth, even with the use of new, advanced materials and computers, will be akin to crossing the ocean in a canoe or kayak.
“We are like those first ships whose captains did not know where they were because 'it' had not yet been discovered,” Hadfield said, referring to the historic voyages of Columbus, Magellan and Cook.
"I think we need to achieve several technological breakthroughs before we can cross the ocean between us and Mars in any way."
Hadfield said that he himself does not know exactly what these new technologies should be, but noted recent advances in ion propulsion, as well as returning interest from NASA in favor of nuclear reactors. It is possible that scientists will one day make a breakthrough in dark matter and energy research that will help us in this endeavor.
“Perhaps working with a magnetic alpha spectrometer installed on board the ISS, a CERN particle accelerator, or something else will allow us to conquer gravity one day. Sounds fantastic. But we have figured out how to conquer electricity and have learned how electrons work. Before that, everything was also considered fantasy. But in the end it revolutionized our lives and our travels. Who knows what will happen next?"
Nikolay Khizhnyak
