A well-known philosopher about the "last crisis" of capitalism, the Rothschilds' game against Washington and the confusion of the world's elites.
In the next 12 years, mankind may face threats coming from the future, before which global terrorism pales, says Shamil Sultanov, head of the Russia-Islamic World analytical center. Sultanov said in an interview about why the number of migrants can reach half a billion, whether Israel will disappear from the world map, what Trump should do in order not to go to jail, and how the conflict between Zolotov and Navalny testifies to the personnel shortage of the Kremlin.
Shamil Sultanov: “It is unlikely that any serious agreed decisions, let alone concerted actions, will be adopted and implemented. Elites and quasi-elites simply don’t know what to do”/ Photo: Sergey Elagin.
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THE EARTH SURFACE WILL BE UNSUITABLE FOR LIVING
Shamil Zagitovich, we meet 2019 in anxious anticipation, which is very close to the feeling with which our ancestors expected the apocalypse. The modern Internet, as usual, is filled with predictions of all kinds of Wangs. One could not take this seriously, but reputable analysts do not promise us anything good either
- Today we are faced with a real system-wide civilizational crisis, which in the next 10-15 years will become more and more evident. The past 2018 was characterized not so much by a sharp exacerbation of the contradictions between the biosphere and humanity (it is already growing, especially in the last 20-25 years), as by the sudden appearance of frank shocking data on the dramatic consequences of these contradictions. Previously, it was all classified, laid on the tables of presidents and prime ministers under the heading "top secret". But now these issues are gradually beginning to be openly discussed. I think because of the growing despair.
I will give one example: in September, there were partial leaks of monitoring results based on a rather complex mathematical model devoted to the classic problem of industrial civilization - the dynamics of hydrocarbon emissions into the atmosphere. One of the apocalyptic results of this model (I emphasize, this is a mathematical, huge and very complex model that uses a huge number of indicators) was an unambiguous conclusion: if no urgent measures are taken, then in 12 years climate change will begin to worsen exponentially. What is it in 12 years? This is 2030–2031, not in a few thousand or hundreds of years, but almost tomorrow. What will happen? An increasing amount of the earth's surface will become uninhabitable. This means that the human ecumene,which has been continuously expanding since ancient times, for the first time in history, it will begin to continuously and progressively decrease. The same kind of data was leaking out on the problems of the oceans, which since 2011 have virtually lost the ability to self-clean. This also includes the growing shortage of fresh water and a host of other problems.
In short, all these changes are inevitable unless some kind of global emergency measures are taken. But I am sure that such measures (which ones are not very clear!) Will not be taken. This is practically impossible in today's socio-political reality, because the old mechanisms for making political decisions - in the form of the UN, other international specialized organizations - are degrading and crumbling before our eyes, simultaneously with the gradual destruction of a sense of shared responsibility, a sense of a united international community and the common fate of mankind … It is unlikely that any serious agreed decisions, let alone concerted actions, will be adopted and implemented. The first reason is the development of the political trend "everyone - for himself, one God - for all", and the second, more significant reason is thatthat elites and quasi-elites simply don't know what to do.
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Another important point: 2018 passed in anticipation of the final stage of the global economic crisis. The first phase of this crisis began in 2007-2008, but was quickly dealt with through specific measures (such as “cash pumping”), which, in turn, led to deepening long-term consequences in the global economy. Then the second stage began, which passed quite imperceptibly in 2014–2015. She was not noticed amid all sorts of political incidents: the fight against terrorism, the annexation of Crimea, and so on. However, since 2017, there has been a tense expectation of when the final phase of this global crisis will begin. Most specialists who use verifiable complex macromodels assume that this will not be an ordinary traditional cyclical crisis of capitalism, but something else, more interesting.quite comparable with the crisis of 1929 (the so-called Great Depression - ed.), or even worse.
In the last weeks of December, the volatility of US stock indices was very acute. During the month, indicators fell four times by 4-5 percent (the Dow Jones fell several times from a peak of 26,828 points recorded on October 3, and by December 21, fell by 14% to 22,445 points; on December 24, it lost 2 more, 9%; S & P500 fell 2.7%, NASDAQ - 2.2%; analysts believe that last December was the worst month for the American stock market since 1931 - ed.). However, in addition to volatility, there are many other indicators that indicate that something threatening is approaching. But what will it be? Everyone says that this will turn into a crisis in 2019 - in the first or second half of it. Will he be able to solve the accumulated problems in some miraculous way, or will he simply aggravate them? But this can lead to completely unpredictable consequences. And many assume that after the 2019 crisis a new stage of the global trend will begin under the strange slogan "Our path is in the dark."
After the 2019 crisis, a new stage of the global trend will begin under the strange slogan Our Way in the Dark.
Europe is now a little bit "ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD YOU WILL NOT FIND AN OPEN SOCIAL OPTIMISM NOW"
Will the crisis mainly affect the world economy?
- No, this will not be a classic economic crisis, but a certain phase of the system-wide crisis, which I have already spoken about. The fact is that the economic crisis itself is now becoming an expression of an extraordinary combination of social, technological, industrial, cultural and political problems and contradictions that are aggravating throughout the world. First of all, this is due to the beginning of the transition to the sixth technological order (TS), which will require cardinal transformations in all spheres of human life: economic, political, social, and cultural. Will the outcome of this crisis be successful enough to bring about, or at least trigger, such necessary transformations? The key problem is that so far there is no ideology, no strategy,no clear plan for such transformations … not in China, not in the USA, not in Europe, not in Russia.
Take this example. One of the trends of the approaching sixth technological order is the increasingly complex and intensive robotization in the production sphere, which will gradually and objectively lead to the fact that people, in the name of increasing labor productivity based on new technological innovations, will simply be eliminated from mechanical work. That is, a huge increase in unemployment is an unconditional fact of tomorrow. In the USA, which is a leader in the introduction of the sixth technological order, this has already led to the effect of the emergence of the so-called social trumpism. American white workers, who 35 years ago were considered the backbone of the American middle class, suddenly began to massively turn into unemployed. This was accompanied by social consequences: an increase in alcoholism, drug addiction, exorbitant divorce rates,deformation of family relations, the spread of criminal behavior, and so on. Moreover, they voted for Trump, and in addition, in his election program - the issuance of subsidies to American corporations introducing robotization … in accordance with the aphorism "Today is bad, but it's good because tomorrow will be worse!"
Some kind of special intellectual breakthrough is needed, a super-idea is needed in order to overcome these contradictions. The same unemployment in the next 10-15 years may become a major problem even in developed countries. What to do with it within the framework of the persisting capitalist system of mass consumption and mass production? Elites, parties, special services, “comrades scientists, associate professors with candidates,” as Vysotsky sang, do not know this.
Related to this are social problems, which I have already partly begun to talk about. Why was the problem of migrants so acute in the media in 2018? Here, oddly enough, the relationship between the biosphere and humans also affected. One of the reasons for the wars in the Middle East, in particular in Syria and Iraq, have been prolonged droughts in these countries over the past 20 years. Natural disasters led to mass migration of the rural population to cities, and from overcrowded cities to other countries, including to Europe, which is still climate-friendly. These tendencies (on the one hand, catastrophic climatic changes, and on the other, more and more unmanageable challenges of the sixth technological order) lead to the fact that in the next 15–20 years the number of migrants may reach almost half a billion people (minimum estimate). This is a very real problembecause ordinary people, when faced with representatives of a different anthropological type, experience a latent fear of them. At the same time, many of them do not understand that in 20 years they themselves may turn out to be migrants and refugees, moreover, from the same coastal England or continental Europe. The only question is where they will migrate. Perhaps to Siberia?
The population of Europe is now a little over 700 million. Half a billion migrants are actually another Europe
- No, I mean worldwide migration. There are, for example, Asian migrants who will never go to Europe. As for the Old World, the possible quotas of migrants by 2040–2045 are estimated at 150–180 million people.
Then this is another Russia
- Yes, this is relatively a lot, but the paradox is that there are vast segments of unskilled labor in Europe, where Europeans simply do not go to work. There still remains a need for workers from Africa and the Middle East to do this dirty work. By the way, Angela Merkel also proceeded from the fact that in any case these niches would not be filled even by unemployed Germans.
It is clear that the combination of such systemic contradictions will inevitably stimulate the trend of nationalism, which is now growing throughout the world, primarily in Europe. Much of what we are now seeing in the EU (relations between the European Union and Britain due to Brexit; the situation associated with the critical weakening of Emmanuel Macron), in one way or another, rests on the problem of multifactorial nationalism. Therefore, many assumptions have been put forward as to whether Europe is returning to the state of the 1920s – 1930s of the XX century, which became the eve of World War II. Against this backdrop, in 2018 we witnessed a sharp weakening of globalism and the collision of the American deep state and Trump. Relatively speaking, this is direct,the increasingly violent clash of current American nationalism or patriotism (America Above All) with globalist tendencies and with people who proceed from a rational assessment that - whether we want it or not - today's problems cannot be solved alone. However, there are many world leaders who believe that it is better to save yourself alone.
Another very curious observation at the end of 2018: nowhere in the world can you find open social optimism. Drug addiction, alcoholism and so on are on the rise everywhere, and optimistic statements look ridiculous and ridiculous. But socio-cultural optimism was typical of the world agenda 25 years ago, in the 1990s, and even back in 2005, when they hoped that “we will defeat world terrorism and everything will be tip-top”. But now this optimism has disappeared somewhere!
The global political crisis, which I have already mentioned, as an integral part of the system-wide crisis in 2018, became remarkable for the fact that it united and included whole layers of political crises that we did not see 10 years ago. Intra-country contradictions sharply escalated. In the United States, there is a direct clash of various groups and elites, the fight against Trump is only one aspect here. The movement of "yellow vests" in France is not spontaneous actions of workers, as they try to imagine, but a union of elites against Macron. The slogan “Macron is Rothschild's puppet” is a striking indicator of the current stage of the intra-elite war. In Germany, the internal elite struggle led to the resignation of Merkel from the post of chairman of the Christian Democratic Union and to the fact that the main political party of the FRG, which provided her stability,- The CDU is now de facto split.
To this can also be added a sharp aggravation of relations between the United States and Russia. We still have optimists who hope for a new reset, but in the States you will not find a serious analyst who could say: "Yes, in the visible future our relations will stabilize." Such statements could still have been made under George W. Bush or Barack Obama, but now they are not. The American elite, primarily the American military intelligence complex, believes that by 2025–2027 Russia will cease to exist. And then many bilateral problems will acquire a different dimension.
Similar voices are heard from Russia, but only in relation to America. US under Trump predicts disintegration
- Yes, a number of authoritative American experts say that the United States may split. In addition, as the Marxists say, antagonistic contradictions between the United States and China, as well as within the PRC itself between Comrade Xi Jinping and his three opponents from the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, are escalating.
In sum, from what I said, two conclusions can be drawn.
First. Frankly speaking, in 2018 we were faced with an amazing situation when virtually all the world's political, intellectual and business elites do not know how to act in the face of ever more aggravating threats coming from the future. It reminds me to some extent of the late 20s - early 30s of the XX century. Now, however, everything is much worse.
Second. Human civilization is entering the most dangerous period after 1945 - the most dangerous 12-year period, when a truly existential problem will be solved - whether humanity will survive or not. If we estimate the likelihood of the threat of a global war in the period from 1991 to 2010 as a unit, then, according to my estimates, in the period from 2019 to 2031 this figure will increase to eight.
Fatal changes can begin as a warning from higher powers as early as 2019.
WE NEED A NEW CLIMATE AGREEMENT - MUCH STRONGER, AND AN INTERNATIONAL POLICE WILL MONITOR ITS IMPLEMENTATION
Can the Paris climate agreement, from which Trump so spontaneously and impulsively left, solve the biospheric problems that we talked about?
- Donald Trump's break with the Paris Climate Agreement (occurred on June 1, 2017 - editor's note) is generally understandable: it was important for the American president to emphasize that he is fulfilling his obligations undertaken by him during the election campaign. And here the easiest way is to withdraw from this agreement and declare that these are all inventions of democrats, liberals and other "bad" people that are not worth a dime. But in a sense, Trump is right. Do you know why? Because the Paris Convention is too limited and insufficient to take the extraordinary measures that are actually required. We need some kind of new agreement - much tougher than the previous one, and we need, relatively speaking, an international police that will monitor its implementation, because climate change - not fictional, but real - is much more dangerous.than many other acute international problems (according to scientific data, the population of the Earth has a "quota" for the total volume of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; if it is exceeded, the temperature on the planet will change by more than two degrees Celsius; the "quota" is 1.2 trillion tons - editor's note).
You said that the human ecumene will shrink. This will certainly lead not only to migration, but also to a significant reduction in the number of humanity, which now stands at over 7 billion people
- Yes, absolutely. Moreover, fatal changes can begin as a warning from higher powers already in 2019. Another powerful tsunami is expected in countries such as Indonesia. This can lead to thousands and tens of thousands of victims. This is a separate conversation, because there are a lot of threats from natural disasters, which are only intensifying and increasing and which science is still able to calculate. Say, when the Yellowstone caldera flares up - in five years or in 200? In principle, here, as in politics, one must proceed from the assumption that this may happen tomorrow. If this happens tomorrow, then it will be a threat to all of humanity. Not only for the United States, on whose territory the volcano is located (in Yellowstone National Park in the northwestern United States - ed.), But also - I emphasize - for the entire civilization. The science,which is now being prayed for as a kind of new superregion, is in fact deeply irresponsible: she does not know a day or an hour.
That is, modern humanity, like Plato's Atlantis, already feels the first tremors, but because of carelessness does not attach much importance to them?
- As I said, the global split of the political and intellectual elite prevents us from thinking about the meaning of these tremors. After all, 15 years ago, when the Paris climate agreement was just being prepared, there was still some consensus between world leaders who really saw a threat to all of humanity. But this consensus was not enough to take really tough measures. The countries that signed the Paris Convention were forced to take into account the interests of the oil and metallurgists of the United States, China and other major players in the global market, and now even this is not there, but there are the problems of China and the United States, which together are responsible for 40 percent of global CO2 emissions. And at the same time, Washington is unlikely to reconsider its position on the climate agreement, even if Trump is suddenly removed from the White House.because American nationalism, from my point of view, is developing at a more powerful pace than, say, European nationalism, the nationalism of the same Hungarian Viktor Orban, or even Chinese nationalism. Even if someone develops an excellent model and presents convincing calculations, I hardly see the chances of concluding a new agreement. I would be glad to be mistaken, but, unfortunately, at the end of 2018 the situation is as follows.
“THE AMERICAN ECONOMIST REMEMBERED AND ANSWERED:“THERE IS ONLY ONE WAY - WAR. SHE WILL SLEEP ALL"
I will clarify the epochal economic crisis, the menacing features of which you outlined at the very beginning. Isn't this crisis the last and final one that Karl Marx once wrote about? If no prospects are visible behind him, but only "the path in the darkness", does this mean that soon we will be destined to attend the funeral of capitalism?
- This is a wonderful question in the sense that Vladimir Ilyich Lenin wrote about the collapse of capitalism, or rather, imperialism as its highest stage. However, the First World War did not end with the collapse of capitalism, as many expected. Most of the Marxists of the 1920s, including Joseph Stalin, Leon Trotsky and Karl Kautsky, proceeded from the assumption that there would be a Second World War, which would precisely put an end to the capitalist era. But after World War II, Franklin Roosevelt contrived to translate spatial capitalism, that is, a formation that in the long term covers the entire globe, into chronological capitalism (I would call it that). It can be designated as chronological due to the development of the credit system: you take loans, buy goods, thereby stimulate production, and payment of credit debts is postponed for the future. The result is growth. And everything was fine and wonderful, while cheap resources were available, but resources began to rise in price, the situation began to worsen, we came to the conclusion that now the world GDP is about 70-80 trillion dollars, and debts are about 250-300 trillion. Derivatives, or what is called fictitious capital, amount to several hundred trillion dollars. If I am asked whether the current crisis is capable of solving this key problem of modern capitalism, I will answer that of course not. If only because in order to get out of the paradigm of classical spatial capitalism, Roosevelt's genius and will were needed. The same American president who summoned the bankers in April 1933 and said something like this: “What is your profit rate now? 50 percent? Well, from this year you will have 5 percent. However, such a person is not even visible in the United States today.
At the same time, let's not forget that the United States provides up to 24 percent of world GDP (as of September 2018, $ 19.39 trillion, or 24.4% of world GDP - editor's note), so the clash between the American elites is far not "small-town" problems. This confrontation came into an open phase in 2000, when Al Gore lost to George W. Bush, whose victory no one seriously expected. We spoke to you in a previous interview that the response to this loss was August 2001, when there was a colossal flop in the American stock exchange, and then in the sad memory of 9/11. Bush, whom fortune had raised to the level of the master of the White House, had no idea how to get out of this peak, but Roosevelt did. This idea opposed the classical theories of super-imperialism, which were manipulated by the classical Marxists of the 1920s. And now this is not the case, one of the key problems of modern suicidal civilization is precisely that there are no fundamentally new breakthrough socio-political theories. Roughly speaking, there is no second Karl Marx. There is not even a second Emile Durkheim.
That is, capitalism mired in debt can easily be declared bankrupt, like any "mortal" person who took out a bank loan and could not pay off with it?
- If you now declare bankrupt, say, the United States, which has a debt almost equal to the national GDP, or Japan, whose debt is 250 percent of its GDP, it will be the collapse of the entire world economy. And it will inevitably lead to the outbreak of wars all over the world. After all, what preceded the Second World War? Remember the early 1930s: local wars were fought all over the world - in Asia and in Europe. And here the same will happen.
There is an American economist, Nobel laureate Schmidt (the surname is German, but he himself is an American). When asked if the coming economic crisis could solve the problem of debt, he replied: "No." He was asked the question: "How can it be solved?" He hesitated and replied, “There is only one way: war. She will write off everything. " So cynical and simple, in a scientific way.
But local wars are going on in the modern world, and we know where they are going, how they are going and how hopelessly they have dragged on
- Right, but we forget that local wars are actually intensifying. Take Africa: little is written about it, but most of the African continent is engulfed in a chain of very strange local military conflicts between tribes, peoples or certain regions. We are beginning to learn about this because PMCs appear there - private military companies, not only Russian and American, but also Chinese. They become participants in these local wars, while tribal and inter-tribal African conflicts are actually beginning to acquire a global character, since the war there is for resources, the shortage of which on world markets is exacerbating. In the Central African Republic (CAR) there is a deposit of some minerals that have no analogues in the whole world. These are rare metalswithout which electronics cannot work. You cannot even imagine how fierce the struggle is over the fields.
We learn about this only if Orkhan Dzhemal dies in the CAR along with his companions
- Orkhan Dzhemal died, but we did not learn anything and are unlikely to find out soon. We are kind of transparently hinted: "You guys don't need to pay attention to this."
Israel has turned from an ally that the West needs into a state that opposes the national interests of the United States and Europe.
IF ISRAEL BECOMES A PALESTINIAN STATE, A NEW MASS EXIT OF JEWS WILL TAKE PLACE TO RUSSIA
And what will happen to Israel in the new model of the world that is now being built? Israel is still a symbol and homeland of the usurious economy, which became the basis of Roosevelt's "chronological capitalism". If chronological capitalism has reached a dead end, is Israel, accordingly, also on the verge of collapse?
- This is also a question. When we touch upon the topic of collapse (you rightly said), we are talking about the fate of the suicidal civilization of loan capital.
Loan capital, by the way, rhymes with the Day of Judgment, about which both the Bible and the Torah tell
- Loan capital, Doomsday is a very interesting analogy. Regarding the fate of Israel, we can say that it becomes hostage to a conflict that has existed for 7 or 8 years. On the one hand, Israel, as a Jewish state, as the center of the Jewish world, must de facto profess nationalism. And in fact, this is happening now: attempts are being made to move in this direction inside the country. On the other hand, Israel wants to integrate even deeper into the global mainstream. At the same time, the United States is his main ally. However, the American elite is mainly in favor of globalization, where there is no place for nationalism or where nationalism is very limited, including Jewish. This is the first package of contradictions.
A second set of contradictions can be traced between the military intelligence complex of the United States and Israel, which are escalating. In 2004-2005, there was a past closed intra-elite discussion in America over who is to blame for the fact that the Yankees got involved in the war with Iraq, where the Americans lost trillions of dollars and found themselves in a strategic trap. As a result, Iran, the United States' main regional rival, has only grown stronger. And the American generals pointed a finger at Israel - they say, the US Jewish lobby dragged us into this war. By the way, then one of such henchmen of Israel was called the current adviser to the President of the United States for national security John Bolton.
There is a third aspect, the essence of which is the relationship between America, the West on the one hand, and Israel on the other. It lies in the fact that a Jew who lives in the United States is primarily a Jew with a globalist mindset. The Jews are generally a globalist people in their mentality and thinking. But this nation has split: the Jews who live in the United States are the main ideologists of the globalization policy, and the Israeli Jews are shtetl, roughly speaking, although much has already changed there.
These three aspects are aggravating relations between Tel Aviv and Washington. Recall that the relationship between Benjamin Netanyahu and Barack Obama was very complicated. Now Netanyahu supports Donald Trump, calls him the best president of the United States, but inside his country, the Israeli prime minister receives reproaches and accusations. “Okay, you got Trump to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, but what did it do? Nothing,”they say to him. This only spoiled relations with American Jews, who for the most part (about 73-75 percent) oppose Trump.
In the next 12 years, from 2019 to 2031, Israel's fate is likely to be decided. It will not be resolved in the sense that someone will attack Israel and this country will suffer a military defeat. I think that Israel will be forced to admit (or it will be forced to admit it) that a purely Jewish state will not work in the conditions of globalization, therefore the Israeli elite will have to agree to create a bi-national Palestinian-Jewish state. This was predicted by Mr. Henry Kissinger: he even named the date - 2022. 2022 is not the liquidation of Israel, but the beginning of its cardinal transformation. Then the usual historical process will begin, which took place in the Middle East for thousands of years: invaders came there, created some of their own states (remember the crusaders), and then the Middle East simply absorbed them. If a new formula for Israel as a bi-national state is declared, a slow outflow of the Jewish population will gradually begin. By the way, it is already underway: the number of Jews who leave Israel is greater than those who come to Israel. This outflow will intensify, and at the same time the number of Palestinians in the country will increase - both by birth and by arrival. So gradually Israel will be a bi-national state, and then - Palestinian. How long it will take - 30 years or 50 years - is hard to say.and through arrival. So gradually Israel will be a bi-national state, and then - Palestinian. How long it will take - 30 years or 50 years - is hard to say.and through arrival. So gradually Israel will be a bi-national state, and then - Palestinian. How long it will take - 30 years or 50 years - is hard to say.
And where will the new mass exodus of Jews take place - to the USA, to Odessa, anywhere else?
- I think Russia, because anti-Semitism is growing in Europe and anti-Semitism is also progressing in the United States. Do not forget that before World War II, the United States was considered one of the most anti-Semitic countries, along with Germany. Then the Americans, with the help of the Soviet Union, created Israel as their instrument, and then this anti-Semitism was suppressed. In addition, anti-Semitism was fought in America, especially when in the 1960s the idea of a new world, a new country, new frontiers appeared - what Lyndon Johnson put forward (36th American President from 1963 to 1969 - ed.) … But now the situation in America is changing, because de facto, geopolitically, Israel is no longer needed by anyone: neither the United States nor Europe. The question is how to get rid of it gradually. The Western elite understands very wellthat Israel is one of the long-term sources of radicalization in the Middle East. This is a dialectic: Israel from an ally needed by the West has turned into a state that opposes the national interests of the United States and Europe.
TURKS ARE KEY WITNESSES AND PLAYERS IN THE KASHOGGI KILLING CASE
How strong is the Israeli lobby in the US now? Is Jared Kushner still playing a major role here, or is he losing influence over his "regal" father-in-law, Donald Trump?
- The influence of the American Jewish lobby has been declining over the past five years, especially after the discussion in 2004-2005 that I told you about. The situation for the Jewish lobby has become especially unfavorable under Barack Obama, whom the US military-intelligence complex has nominated not least in order to get closer to the Islamic world. Not because the American military loves Islam, but because they assume that it is much easier for America to fight Russia, Europe or China - they are adapted for this. Why? Because they know the information base, they have information about Russia - perhaps even such information that even the Kremlin does not have. But what is happening somewhere in the strange slums and deserts of the Middle East, they simply do not know. And in this sense, military action patterns are almost impossible to predict,therefore one should avoid them. What happened in Afghanistan and Iraq is an indicator. The worst thing for a military man is to get involved in a war and lose priorities: why are you here and why are you fighting. Therefore, Obama tried to act as a "contact" with the Islamic world. At the same time, the influence of American Jewish groups began to decline. Under Trump, there seemed to be some kind of resurgence of the former lobby, but he could not reach the previous level. Moreover, Jared Kushner is now harming his father-in-law more. His relationship with Mohammad bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, will now be used as one of the key charges against Trump. I think that starting from January of this year, all this will be turned against the 45th President of the United States. The worst thing for a military man is to get involved in a war and lose priorities: why are you here and why are you fighting. Therefore, Obama tried to act as a "contact" with the Islamic world. At the same time, the influence of American Jewish groups began to decline. Under Trump, there seemed to be some kind of surge in the former lobby, but he could not reach the previous level. Moreover, Jared Kushner is now harming his father-in-law more. His relationship with Mohammad bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, will now be used as one of the key charges against Trump. I think that starting from January of this year, all this will be turned against the 45th President of the United States. The worst thing for a military man is to get involved in a war and lose priorities: why are you here and why are you fighting. Therefore, Obama tried to act as a "contact" with the Islamic world. At the same time, the influence of American Jewish groups began to decline. Under Trump, there seemed to be some kind of surge in the former lobby, but he could not reach the previous level. Moreover, Jared Kushner is now harming his father-in-law more. His relationship with Mohammad bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, will now be used as one of the key charges against Trump. I think that starting from January of this year, all this will be turned against the 45th President of the United States. Therefore, Obama tried to act as a "contact" with the Islamic world. At the same time, the influence of American Jewish groups began to decline. Under Trump, there seemed to be some kind of resurgence of the former lobby, but he could not reach the previous level. Moreover, Jared Kushner is now harming his father-in-law more. His relationship with Mohammad bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, will now be used as one of the key charges against Trump. I think that starting from January of this year, all this will be turned against the 45th President of the United States. Therefore, Obama tried to act as a "contact" with the Islamic world. At the same time, the influence of American Jewish groups began to decline. Under Trump, there seemed to be some kind of resurgence of the former lobby, but he could not reach the previous level. Moreover, Jared Kushner is now harming his father-in-law more. His relationship with Mohammad bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, will now be used as one of the key charges against Trump. I think that starting from January of this year, all this will be turned against the 45th President of the United States. His relationship with Mohammad bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, will now be used as one of the key charges against Trump. I think that starting from January of this year, all this will be turned against the 45th President of the United States. His relationship with Mohammad bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, will now be used as one of the key charges against Trump. I think that starting from January of this year, all this will be turned against the 45th President of the United States.
Why, for example, did you decide to close the Donald J. Trump Foundation? Including because Ivanka Trump was directly involved in his activities, who last year during a visit to Saudi Arabia received $ 100 million in "charity" from Riyadh. And now all this threatens to join the wave of accusations brought against the current owner of the White House. In this sense, Kushner's affairs and initiatives are actually a mine for Trump, and not at all his support. It is not without reason that Netanyahu himself asked through Kushner that the Americans should not disclose their so-called deal of the century yet (the scheme of Palestinian-Israeli settlement - ed.), Because this deal will be a blow to Netanyahu, which is completely untimely for him. After all, the election campaign has already begun in Israel (elections to the 21st Knesset in April - editor's note).
What role can the scandalous murder of Jamal Khashoggi play in the accusations against Trump?
- Since Kushner was a friend of Muhammad bin Salman, and the American Senate and the CIA have already unequivocally determined for themselves that it was bin Salman who issued the order to eliminate Jamal Khashoggi (he was killed on October 2, 2018 on the territory of the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul - ed.) then this is a long-term campaign. In addition, just a few days ago, the US State Department agreed to supply Patriot missiles to Turkey (the deal is about $ 3.5 billion - ed.). One of the reasons why the Americans did this was to try to prevent the Turks from switching to Russian S-400s. The Turks have already posted a deposit, but they are not stupid and understand perfectly well: Patriot are such systems that, if something happens, can be turned off remotely, unlike the S-400. But the big intrigue is different: before the Americans refused to sell Patriot to Turkey for 2.5 years.and now they suddenly agreed. Why? One of the reasons, apparently, is that the Turks are a key witness and player in the Khashoggi murder case. I was in Istanbul shortly before the New Year and I remember Recep Erdogan's statement that he knew who gave the order to eliminate the journalist. The names have not yet been named, but the game is underway, the roles for Kushner or bin Salman have already been scheduled.
This is a difficult time for Trump, especially since in 2020, when his presidential term ends, he intends to run for a new term. On the one hand, he needs this in order to raise his stakes: thus Trump sends a signal to certain circles: "Guys, we have not agreed with you yet, so I will go to the polls." On the other hand, he still needs to go in order to maintain his reputation and not end up in the dock later. It is not for nothing that Trump's discrediting began literally from his first presidential days. One of the challenges was to reduce the level of support to 23-25 percent. What for? If a political leader is supported by only 23-25 percent of the population, this means that you can attack him directly and effectively. For example,when the level of support for Emmanuel Macron slipped to 20 percent, an anti-elite, anti-Rothschild coalition was immediately created in France, and the yellow vest movement began. But in Trump's case, this did not work: despite the huge funds invested in discrediting him, the level of support for the 45th US president and the core of his electorate - the white protest electorate of the middle class - remained at 35-40 percent. Therefore, if in 2020 Trump starts running, in theory he will surely lose, but he will remain a significant figure. Probably, they will negotiate with him so that he would leave quietly, according to the Nixon option (the 37th US President Richard Nixon voluntarily resigned, being in his second term of office, - ed.). Then Trump will most likely be given guaranteesthat he will not be persecuted or sent to prison - not him, not Kushner, not the other people on the Trump team.
Do you think that Trump has no chance of being elected for a second term?
- Even if he runs, he will not pass. The problem is not even in himself, but in the fact that the American elite understands that whoever becomes president in 2020 needs to be, relatively speaking, the second Roosevelt in order to carry out radical reforms. If they are not implemented or postponed for an indefinite future, America simply degrades, it may cease to exist. Trump as a politician is unable to prevent this catastrophe.
If the new exodus of the Jews, which you are talking about, does happen, then what part of them can end up in Russia again? And does this not mean that one of the centers of financial power will move to our country together with the Jews?
- Of course, we are still talking about the movement of Jews purely hypothetically. The best part of the Jewish population (highly educated, belonging to the "Israeli Silicon Valley" or to those businesses that are associated with it) will certainly move to the United States. Israel's population now stands at just over 8.5 million. But it must be borne in mind that this includes Palestinians, Druze and some other nationalities. In fact, I think there are about 6 million Jews. Of these 6, approximately 1.5–2 million will move to the United States and the rest to Russia. Of course, those who move to Russia have nothing to do with serious finance. By the way, Israel has a very strict system of admission to this area. Remember Vladimir Gusinsky (former Russian media mogul, founded the TNT and NTV channels,emigrated abroad in 2000 after the initiation of a criminal case - approx. ed.)? When he first moved, he had a lot of money in his hands, with which he tried to get into the oil business. However, the Jewish comrades told Gusinsky: “Listen, don't go there, or we'll rip off your head. Here you specialize in newspapers, television - please take 25 percent of such and such a TV channel and work. " He suggested: "Give me at least 50 percent." He was told: "Only 25 percent." And 25 percent is, as you know, just charity. Therefore, everything is very tough in Israel. There is a myth about some kind of Jewish solidarity - perhaps it really manifests itself if there is a common enemy, but inside a closed community of tougher enemies towards each other than Jews, it is difficult to imagine.)? When he first moved, he had a lot of money in his hands, with which he tried to get into the oil business. However, the Jewish comrades told Gusinsky: “Listen, don't go there, or we'll rip off your head. Here you specialize in newspapers, television - please take 25 percent of such and such a TV channel and work. " He suggested: "Give me at least 50 percent." He was told: "Only 25 percent." And 25 percent is, as you know, just charity. Therefore, everything is very tough in Israel. There is a myth about some kind of Jewish solidarity - perhaps it really manifests itself if there is a common enemy, but inside a closed community of tougher enemies towards each other than Jews, it is difficult to imagine.)? When he first moved, he had a lot of money in his hands, with which he tried to get into the oil business. However, the Jewish comrades told Gusinsky: “Listen, don't go there, or we'll rip off your head. Here you specialize in newspapers, television - please take 25 percent of such and such a TV channel and work. " He suggested: "Give me at least 50 percent." He was told: "Only 25 percent." And 25 percent is, as you know, just charity. Therefore, everything is very tough in Israel. There is a myth about some kind of Jewish solidarity - perhaps it really manifests itself if there is a common enemy, but inside a closed community of tougher enemies towards each other than Jews, it is difficult to imagine. However, the Jewish comrades told Gusinsky: “Listen, don't go there, or we'll rip off your head. Here you specialize in newspapers, television - please take 25 percent of such and such a TV channel and work. " He suggested: "Give me at least 50 percent." He was told: "Only 25 percent." And 25 percent is, as you know, just charity. Therefore, everything is very tough in Israel. There is a myth about some kind of Jewish solidarity - perhaps it really manifests itself if there is a common enemy, but inside a closed community of tougher enemies towards each other than Jews, it is difficult to imagine. However, the Jewish comrades told Gusinsky: “Listen, don't go there, or we'll rip off your head. Here you specialize in newspapers, television - please take 25 percent of such and such a TV channel and work. " He suggested: "Give me at least 50 percent." He was told: "Only 25 percent." And 25 percent is, as you know, just charity. Therefore, everything is very tough in Israel. There is a myth about some kind of Jewish solidarity - perhaps it really manifests itself if there is a common enemy, but inside a closed community of tougher enemies towards each other than Jews, it is difficult to imagine."Only 25 percent." And 25 percent is, as you know, just charity. Therefore, everything is very tough in Israel. There is a myth about some kind of Jewish solidarity - perhaps it really manifests itself if there is a common enemy, but inside a closed community of tougher enemies towards each other than Jews, it is difficult to imagine."Only 25 percent." And 25 percent is, as you know, just charity. Therefore, everything is very tough in Israel. There is a myth about some kind of Jewish solidarity - perhaps it really manifests itself if there is a common enemy, but inside a closed community of tougher enemies towards each other than Jews, it is difficult to imagine.
SUSPECTION THAT THE ROTHSCHILDS KNOWN TO BE WITH CHINESE ARE PLAYING THEIR GAME AGAINST WASHINGTON
France is still on the hot agenda: the protests of the "yellow vests" do not stop. But isn't the reproach thrown at Macron that he is a Rothschild puppet fair? Isn't this an attempt by France to hold their Brexit and jump out of global humanity?
- Leaving the EU is problematic for one simple reason - the basis of the European Union is a real Franco-German alliance. In theory, if France leaves the union, it means that it gives the rest of the EU to Germany. The "Fourth Reich" appears. And this, in turn, will lead to a sharp exacerbation of contradictions, up to the war between Paris and Berlin. Since Germany is economically a giant of Europe, therefore, France will gradually degrade to the level of Italy or Spain.
Why did Macron, at the suggestion of the Rothschilds, put forward the idea of a European army? He probably proceeded from the fact that the European army is a kind of structure, where France will play a key role, which will become a deterrent for Germany. But this is also a variant of European nationalism, which predictably did not like those French elites who are globalist, and in a practical sense. There is a global deep state (deep state), which must implement its long-term lines, and here - an orientation toward opposition, toward confrontation. After all, Macron bluntly stated that the European army is a confrontation with the United States, China and Russia. But this can lead to the collapse of the world market and the world order. Then suspicions immediately arise that the Rothschilds, whose connection with the Chinese is known, are playing their game,including against Washington. The Rothschild family (including London ones) for a long time, about 30 years, has a special relationship with Hong Kong and Beijing.
Why is Macron now retreating in France on all fronts? Indeed, in fact, there are not so many open Protestants who go out into the streets within the whole of France … Well, somewhere, a maximum of 200-250 thousand, and this is all over the country! And France has a population of 67 million. That is, the percentage of protesters among them is nonsense, these are exactly elite challenges. But they are long-term. I do not know whether the verdict was signed to Macron or they are waiting for him to kneel down and begin to ask for forgiveness … Although the European army, even in the version of the French president, presupposes reaching a certain consensus with Berlin. Let's not forget that Germany is traditionally anti-American in its original, indigenous elites.
Who do the Rothschilds play for? Is it just for themselves or is there a certain geographic point on the map with which they are connected by team interests?
- From my point of view, the Rothschilds proceed from the fact that capitalism is primarily a system of systems: political, economic, socio-cultural and so on. It is based on the financial core. However, what happened in the 1980s in the United States dramatically weakened the influence of the Rothschilds. Ronald Reagan carried out certain reforms, as a result of which the importance of the financial capital of America increased sharply - in contrast to the capital of the classical, Rothschild type. Georeferencing for the Rothschilds is traditionally Great Britain and France. It was in certain circles of these countries that classical Zionism was practiced. True, now Zionism as such, in my opinion, recedes into the background and does not play a special role. In this sense, even Netanyahu's hopes for the support of European Zionists are tertiary.
After reforms in the United States in the 1980s, the Rothschilds relied on creating an alternative financial system that would include China. And an alliance arose, of which I spoke above, an alliance: through Hong Kong and China with the Rothschild financial system. By the way, the British also have very good relations with China. The British elite formally proceeds from the fact that through Brexit it leaves Europe and restores the old Atlantic cooperation with the United States and China at the same time. A key triangle of the future system arises: Great Britain, the United States and China, in which London, according to its classical scheme, would like to play on the contradictions between the Americans and the Chinese. But, from my point of view, this will no longer succeed.
Another big question: Since 2007, which banks in America have been hit hardest? These are the Rothschild banks. In particular Deutsche Bank. Everyone thinks it's a German bank, but no, it's a Rothschild bank. He paid huge fines in the United States. Therefore, it seems to me that the nomination of Macron, and then lobbying for the idea of a European army, is an attempt at some kind of "response" from the Rothschilds to the old American elites. True, Donald Trump is hardly aware of the details of this story.
FOR THE FIRST TIME THE THESIS IS THAT BULK BASED ON FSS DATA
Russia in this rushing world is also under threat? Or does it have its own safety margin?
- It doesn't happen that it's bad everywhere, but in Russia everyone wears white tailcoats. In economic terms, we continue to stamp on the spot (to put it politely), and in technological terms, the lag of the Russian Federation from the key countries of the world is only growing. And I think that the level of this gap has already reached 20-25 years.
The most important thing is that Russia as a part of the capitalist civilization, naturally, cannot but go through the same processes that are taking place in the rest of the world. As a state, it has two main problems that will only get worse. On the one hand, they are similar to what other countries are experiencing, but they have their own Russian specifics.
First, the Russian state does not have its own ideology for the future and for the future. What are we building and what do we want? How do we see Russia in 2025 and 2050? What should be done for this? Apart from propaganda slogans, we have practically nothing on this score. What is ideology? Ideology is self-awareness, self-awareness of society, which thus feels its self-identity. Propaganda campaigns, television shows and the World Cup can partly fill the mind for a short time, but without ideology, this is all quickly forgotten. Or it happens as with some propaganda television programs that suddenly begin to play the opposite role. If we had a strategic ideology, then this could become an important shield against existential threats coming from the future, but this is not.
Second, the current Russian state is deficient in the sense that it does not have a valid personnel system. For me, in this sense, the clash between the head of the National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, and Alexei Navalny is symbolic. The last episode: Zolotov filed a lawsuit, accusing Navalny of disseminating information that does not correspond to reality (the Lublin court of Moscow received a lawsuit from Zolotov against Navalny for 1 million rubles to protect honor, dignity and business reputation - ed.), But his statement not accepted. Some amazing details followed. For the first time in the media, the thesis was voiced that Navalny relies on some data from the FSB in his charges against Zolotov (in particular, a certain Colonel V. A. Vertei is mentioned - ed.). Roughly speaking, this means that some FSB groups support Navalny. But,apparently not because they especially like Navalny, but because they do not like Zolotov. But the Russian generals don't like Zolotov either. He was a guard and, by definition, should always keep a low profile. When he suddenly becomes an army general without taking part in any battle, many real army generals are very offended.
But at one time he participated in battles on the streets of bandit Petersburg
- These are not the battles for which you should give an army general.
I agree. But he has a difficult fate - this is a former subordinate of the mysteriously poisoned Roman Tsepov
- Yes I know. The most important thing is that many people know about it. But why did he have to give an army general? Why give permission to privatize the state dacha, in which historical figures lived at different times (according to Navalny's version, Zolotov owns Mikoyan's former dacha in the Odintsovo district of the Moscow region, where Dzerzhinsky, Voroshilov, etc. also lived, - ed.)? After all, it becomes known over time. This, among other things, manifests itself in the personnel crisis of the current Russian government. Probably, after the court dismissed Zolotov's claim on a ridiculous occasion, he was summoned to the right place and said: “What are you doing? You're setting everyone up! You substitute the leader too. Because Navalny only needs a court, where he will bring a huge amount of evidence. And Zolotov's lawyers won't be able to do anything. And from this, the general hatred of Zolotov will only intensify.
However, not only in Russia there is a shortage of personnel: Macron also played too. Not only did this outspoken homosexual become the president of France, not only did he, hiding his passive homosexuality, marry a woman who would be good for him as a mother, he also took his lover and introduced him into the closest presidential entourage (meaning the head of the French security service Leader Alexander Benall - ed.). And this is another example of the "brilliant" career of a security guard. But this is insanity, the loss of all moral guidelines.
The contradictions that we talked about did put the world on the verge of a new big war?
- It is a little incorrect to speak simply about a big war. It makes sense to talk about a big hot war. From my point of view, the war is already underway, and the Fourth World Hybrid War. It began in 2014, but its schemes were refined in the Third World Hybrid War, which killed the Soviet Union. Now Russia is again involved in such a big hybrid war, following the same model. Will it be hot? If this is a big hybrid war, then it is manageable and proceeds according to a certain scenario. This means that those directors who launched this global conflict will try to achieve their goal, avoiding the hot phase.
Shamil Sultanov is a Russian political scientist, philosopher, historian, publicist, public and political figure. President of the Center for Strategic Research "Russia - Islamic World", a permanent member of the "Izborsk Club".
Born in the city of Andijan, Uzbek SSP in 1952. In 1976 he graduated from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Candidate of Historical Sciences. He speaks three languages: French, Arabic, English.
After graduating from MGIMO in 1976, he worked there in the laboratory of system analysis of international relations, defended his thesis on the problems of foreign policy decisions. He was engaged in conflict management, regional and global security, decision-making theory, methodology and technology of political analysis. Published over 80 scientific articles on conflict management, regional development problems, systems analysis and general systems theory.
1989–1990 - Deputy Head of Department at the Institute of Foreign Economic Relations.
1991-1993 - member of the editorial board and special correspondent for The Day newspaper. Then he was deputy chief editor of the opposition weekly Zavtra, created on the basis of the Den newspaper. Until 1997, he was the head of the "Scoreboard" column in the "Zavtra" newspaper.
He was published in the program organ of the "new right" - the journal "Elements", as well as in the newspaper "Al-Qods".
As a philosopher, Sultanov deals with the problem of the relationship between mythological, magical and dialectical thinking. Studying mysticism, magic, dialectical philosophers from Plato to Hegel, I came to the conclusion that at a certain stage, three types of thinking come to general principles.
In 1995 he became a member of the National Council of the Union of the Peoples of Russia. He was a member of the Islamic Renaissance Party, and was also a member of the editorial board of the party's newspaper - "Al-Wahdat" ("Unity").
Until 2003, he served as deputy to Yuri Skokov - head of the center for the study of interethnic and interregional economic problems. In 2003, Sultanov was elected to the State Duma (on the lists of "Rodina"), worked in the State Duma committee on international affairs. He was a member of the analytical group of the Foreign Policy Association of Alexander Bessmertnykh.
In April 2004, Sultanov created an inter-factional deputy union called "Russia - the Islamic World: Strategic Dialogue." In 2005, he became the head of the eponymous center for strategic studies. These two institutions were created with the aim of bringing Russia closer to the Islamic world.
Valery Beresnev