After ten years, the heat in North Africa and the Middle East may become so intense that it will be impossible to live there. The consequence of this will be a massive exodus of the population, write employees of the Max Planck Chemical Research Institute in Mainz, who prepared a new research report with colleagues from the Cyprus Institute (Cyprus Institute i) in Nicosia.
“In the future, the climate in large areas of the Middle East and North Africa may change in such a way that the lives of the local inhabitants are in danger,” says research director Jos Lelieveld, who works at these institutes.
Intense heat and sandstorms
Lelieveld writes about how the hot climate will affect the environment and human health.
“Prolonged periods of extreme heat and sandstorms can render some regions uninhabited. This can definitely contribute to the need to leave them,”says the professor.
More than 500 million people live in these areas, which are still very hot in summer. Climate change is already visible: the number of very hot days has doubled since 1970.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (FNs klimapanel) is working to ensure that global temperatures do not exceed the pre-industrial norm (defined as 1850) by 2 degrees. A scientific report shows that if this boundary is violated, summer temperatures in North Africa and the Middle East will double.
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Daytime temperature 50 degrees
In 2050, the nighttime temperature will not drop below 30 degrees, and during the day it can rise to 46 degrees. By the end of the century, temperatures can rise to 50 degrees in the middle of the day, and heatwaves can occur ten times more often than today.
But beyond all this, heat waves will last longer. In the period 1986-2005, they lasted an average of 16 days, but in 2050 they can last up to 80 days, and by 2100 up to 118 days. This is despite the fact that gas emissions should decrease after 2040.
“If humanity continues to emit carbon dioxide at its current level, then the population of North Africa and the Middle East, according to our model, should be prepared for the fact that the unusually intense heat will continue for 200 days,” says researcher at the Cyprus Institute Panos Hadjinikolaou (Panos Hajincolaou).
The border of 2 degrees was already violated twice this year. True, for a short period, but scientists are still very worried.
Earlier, a team of scientists found that air pollution in the Middle East has increased dramatically since the early 2000s. This is explained, first of all, by an increase in the number of sandstorms, which, in turn, is explained by longer dry periods. If the temperature rises, then this trend will also intensify.
Two scenarios
Scientists work from two scenarios. The first assumes a reduction in gas emissions from 2040 in accordance with the provisions of the Paris Treaty in order not to exceed the global warming rate by 2 degrees, or even better - by 1.5 degrees. The second scenario assumes the current volume of gas emissions, the so-called “business as usual” scenario.
The development of events according to the latter scenario will lead to global warming by 4 degrees. In North Africa and the Middle East, the hottest heat will be in the summer (which is already very hot), not in the winter, which usually happens elsewhere on the planet.
This is due to the fact that the desert areas of the region contribute to the intensification of the heat. While the surface of the earth in other places is cooled by the evaporation of groundwater, this does not happen in hot desert, and the greenhouse effect is enhanced.
From this follows the grim conclusion that both scenarios will lead to a deterioration in the living conditions of the population of North Africa and the Middle East, which will cause a massive exodus of people from this region.
