Our enemies sleep and see how huge Russia disintegrates into many weak state formations or completely disappears from the world map. But what will happen in world geopolitics if such a scenario is allowed?
Not so long ago, the American political scientist Ian Bremmer posted on his blog a map signed with the words: "The world will isolate Russia." Apart from the USA, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan and western Europe, this map contains nothing else. Albeit as a joke, but such a visualization clearly makes it possible to understand the geopolitical dreams of the countries of the “golden billion”, which our state is clearly hindering. Let's try to imagine a world without Russia for a while and see what will come of it.
USA
America is the main beneficiary in the event of the collapse of Russia as a state. The United States will shamelessly take control of the world's largest resource base. “In the event that American control over the Russian oil and gas complex is established, the European economy will become completely dependent on the United States,” writes Vardan Baghdasaryan, deputy head of the Center for Scientific Political Thought and Ideology.
If possible, the Americans will take over Russia's nuclear missile arsenal. True, it is impossible to rule out the option that some of the nuclear weapons will not fall into the hands of Islamic extremists. And then, political scientists unanimously declare, the threat of the greatest tragedy will hang over all mankind.
With the disappearance of Russia, the United States will lose a direct competitor in space exploration, which in turn will mean monopolization of communications and global tracking systems. In this case, only China will try to prevent them.
Without Russia, the UN Security Council will most likely be reformed, of course, to the benefit of the United States. Without fail, African countries will be included in the permanent members of the UN Security Council. Vice-President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems Konstantin Sokolov draws attention to the fact that "African countries are very dependent on external forces, and the United States, which wants to dominate everything, needs additional votes in the Security Council."
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In the new Security Council, China, having lost Russia's support, is unlikely to veto American resolutions. Journalist Edward Chesnokov admits a futuristic scenario: "With China abstaining, a major resolution will be adopted and limited operations to restore democracy in Syria, Myanmar and Venezuela will take place by the end of the year."
Europe
The European Union is by far Russia's largest economic partner. So, in 2008 it accounted for 52% of the Russian trade turnover. According to the Eastern Committee of the German Economy, the losses suffered by suppliers from Germany in the Russian market due to the sanctions amounted to 6.5 billion euros. With the complete closure of the Russian market, German losses will amount to tens of billions, and for the entire EU - hundreds of billions of euros.
It should also be reminded that 31% of the total gas imports and 27% of oil imports come from Russia to Europe. "Any reduction in the supply of energy resources from Russia will lead to the fact that the missing fuel will have to be purchased from other suppliers at a higher price, which, of course, will not please consumers," said the head of the oil and gas company Total Christophe de Margerie. A complete cessation of such supplies will lead to an energy collapse.
The disintegration of Russia will become the detonator of a new "great migration of peoples", which will come back to haunt with terrible and unpredictable consequences for Europe. Political analysts are confident that in order to contain migration waves, Europe will be forced to “fascize”.
Eurasia
American political scientist George Friedman, in his futuristic forecasts, predicted the collapse of Russia by 2030. This event, in his opinion, will leave Eurasia in chaos. There will be new powers that can redistribute the spheres of influence in the region. “Chechnya and other Muslim territories of Russia will gain independence, Finland will annex Karelia, and Romania will take Moldova. Tibet will gain independence with the help of India, and Taiwan will expand its influence in mainland China,”Friedman prophesied.
Olga Tukhanina, a member of the human rights center, is confident that if Russia leaves the political arena, Georgia will complete what it started in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and its initiative will be supported by Ukraine, which “with all its strength will fall on its own small region, destroying its own civilians with heavy weapons.
For the political scientist Vardan Baghdasaryan, the most obvious is the reconfiguration in Central Asia. After Moscow leaves, it will not be able to become an independent regional center of power. The main process of disintegration will affect Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan will not be able to cope with its mission as the heir to the ideology of "Eurasianism" and will undergo an inevitable attack by pro-American forces. The likely configuration of the Kazakhstani split, according to Baghdasaryan, is the borders of the former zhuzes.
But the worst thing for Central Asia is Islamic expansion, which will lead to a clash between Islamists and secular elites. The region will plunge into the maelstrom of civil war for many years. The fate of the current Central Asian presidents will be sealed.
Armenia cannot survive without Russia. The Turkish-Azerbaijani grip will tighten, and the new Armenian genocide will become a reality. The same fate awaits residents of other pro-Russian regions - South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Donbass and Transnistria.
Political scientists predict the fate of consumables in Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. In Azerbaijan, in their opinion, the "Aliyev" clan loyal to Russia will be thrown down, which will give the American oil companies control over the Caspian oil. The Azerbaijani card will further become a catalyst for the fight against Iran.
China
After the disappearance of Russia, China will become the only geopolitical counterweight to the West. However, having lost the support of its northern neighbor, it will not last long. Futurologists predict possible pressure on China from the United States, based in Siberia, from the east - from Japan, and from Central Asia - from radical Islam. And in the nest of "Chinese liberalism" - Hong Kong - the banner of the "orange revolution" will be raised.
Another powerful shock for the Celestial Empire will be the withdrawal of the Chinese economy from the world market. However, the private intelligence and analytical organization Stretfor admits in its report that China will continue to be a major economic power, but it will not become the engine of global growth.
In the worst-case scenario of China's development, instead of it, a group of countries, which will include most of the states of Southeast Asia, East Africa and parts of Latin America, can act as a global "economic powerhouse".
According to the report, China will lose its military power, while Japan will become an increasingly dominant power in the Pacific region.
Near East
In the absence of a Russian deterrent, the West will finally be able to achieve its goals in the Middle East. The days of Syria and Iran are numbered. According to experts, the overthrow of the Shiite regime in Tehran, the Alawites in Damascus and the collapse of Turkey, built on the ideology of Kemalist nationalism, will open the prospect of implementing the project of the Sunni Caliphate from Morocco to Pakistan. And the doctrine of the creation of Kurdistan will become a factor allowing the United States to legitimize the redrawing of borders on the territory of four states at once - Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert admitted that “in the absence of a restraining Russian influence in the region, the rightists will come to power in Israel, and Hamas in the Palestinian Authority. As a friend of Bush, I still understand that the United States cannot do without Russia.”
Byelorussia
Now Russia provides Belarus with assistance in various forms: preferential loans, cheap energy resources, a guaranteed sales market. But what if all this grace suddenly stops?
The head of the Mises Center, Yaroslav Romanchuk, answers: “What would happen to a country that suddenly lost 15-20% of its GDP? What would happen to enterprises that would suddenly face an unprecedented intensity of competition? It would hurt, really hurt. The salary is less than $ 250. Pensions are less than $ 100. Utilities and public transport are twice as expensive. At least 40% of industrial enterprises are bankrupt and need to be sold off or liquidated."
Today, there is an illusion of reconciliation between President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko and the West. Ceausescu, Milosevic, Hussein, Gaddafi agreed to such a reconciliation, and everyone knows how it ended. Alas, with the collapse of Russia, the days of Lukashenka and his country will be numbered.
Ukraine
The Ukrainian authorities most of all declare their desire for independence from Russia. And what will happen if such an opportunity presents itself? Dmitry Marunich, co-chairman of the Energy Strategies Fund (Kiev), admits that Ukraine will have to cooperate with Russia, since it has no choice. And primarily in the energy sector. “The construction of a nuclear power plant is not cheap, and Ukraine cannot support the operation of nuclear power plants that were built in the USSR without cooperation with Russia.” “If you close all the nuclear power plants in Ukraine, then the economy simply will not stand it and will collapse,” explained Marunich.
According to the People's Deputy of Ukraine Mykola Skorik, "Ukraine cannot be a successful state without Russia." “With the departure of Russia, the disintegration of Ukraine will not only not be stopped, but will proceed at an accelerated rate. The West does not need an Orthodox Slavic state with a large territory and a significant population in eastern Europe,”Skorik summed up.