The topic of building a digital economy in Russia has recently become a top topic at the suggestion of the President. This is spoken about at the highest level (at a meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and Priority Projects under the President of Russia, an ambitious (?) Program for digitalization of Russia until 2024 was adopted), and at the expert level (here many knowledgeable people doubt ambitions), and at the household level (here skepticism prevails). Why is it that the seemingly obvious advantages of the digital perspective confuse citizens? Why is the very understanding of the term “digital economy” different in Russia and in the West? And the main question remained unanswered: will digitalization save the largely archaic post-Soviet domestic basis?
The topic of the digital economy has become fashionable, but it is not known how long "digitalization of the whole country" will last in the headlines? However, in any case, for the next three or four years, attention, finances and solutions at the highest level are guaranteed to her. So what are we going to develop? The question is not idle: the problem is that the authorities - not only in Russia, but also in the West - themselves do not fully understand what they expect from the digitalization of their economies. But one thing is already clear for sure: it is impossible to catch up and overtake "in terms of performance" in this race.
WHERE DOES THE TERM "DIGITAL ECONOMY" COME FROM?
In 1995, the American computer scientist Nicholas Negroponte (University of Massachusetts) coined the term "digital economy" (Negroponte N. Being Digital / N. Negroponte. - NY: Knopf, 1995.).
N. Negroponte.
The scheme was prepared by the organizers of the Tekhnoprom-2013 forum.
Now this term is used all over the world, it has come into the use of politicians, entrepreneurs, journalists.
Promotional video:
The digital economy is an idea that was not born in the minds of Russian officials. It was presented by the World Bank in 2016 in World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends. True, the concept of the digital economy and the priority steps in this direction were different from what the Government of the Russian Federation understands by this. If the World Bank pointed out such signs of digitalization in Russia as open data, the e-government system, the work of domestic digital giants like Yandex, Kaspersky, online ordering services, the reduction of the term for registering property rights using information technologies to 10 days, then in the final state program the Government of the Russian Federation did not stop there. Given that the term itself is vague, the digital economy will clearly be Russian-specific.
The use of a computer, the Internet, mobile phones can already be considered "consumption", in this case, the digital economy can be represented as that part of economic relations, which is mediated by the Internet, cellular communications, ICT.
Doctor of Economics, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences - Vladimir Ivanov gives the broadest definition:
Recently, a new interpretation has emerged: the digital economy as a complement to the analogue economy, which can push the development of real sectors. The turn is interesting: a couple of years ago, the West tried with all its might to "accelerate" the digital segment so that it would become comparable in volume to the real economy, but now many experts note that it has begun to stagnate in terms of slowing growth.
Jomart Aliyev is convinced that the level of development of the digital economy "directly correlates with the level of development of the material economy: where it is high in real life, the development of the digital segment is most expedient there."
The main conclusion: the digital economy is not a recipe for all ills and “a well-developed digital segment of the economy is just support for the economy as such.
GOVERNMENT PURPOSE GOALS
Scientists have already determined that the more processes in production are digitized, the more active the impetus for development is received by analog types of services and production. Moreover, when the effect of digitalization ends (and this inevitably happens), one cannot do without activating the analog economy. In Russia, it seems, they decided not to consider the figure and the analogue in conjunction at all, which is at least strange.
The goals outlined by the program clearly indicate that the government expects to get from digitalization primarily a solution to the issue of national security. Meanwhile, it was precisely this mistake that World Bank experts warned against last fall and winter, who insisted that digitalization is a broader concept than the development of information and computer technologies (ICT). They can be understood - to be afraid of our independence like the devil of incense. But even here it seems that they do not yet understand the full breadth of digitalization technologies, but in vain.
Western experts - be they from McKinsey or the World Bank - are unanimous that digital technologies do not work without adjusting the relationship between economic actors and governance in general. The digital revolution died down in the West 10-15 years ago: there business was the first and very actively mastered new means of communication, digitized everything that was possible, got the authorities to legalize the electronic signature, established digital communication not only within the business community, but also in the state, and the state departments, little by little, they integrated their information systems.
It would be a mistake to believe that in terms of the rate of digitalization, Russia lags behind the West by 10 years: in some industries and sectors it runs almost on a par with the leaders, for example, in the field of telecommunications and the spread of broadband Internet, not to mention the development of the notorious 5G standard or in the sphere of Internet banking distribution. It is a different matter that the authorities' approaches to solving a technological problem are the approaches of yesterday: to create a state corporation or a special project, or a high-tech platform - without fail under the control of the authorities. Such institutions are emerging, but for some reason neither Rusnano, nor the National Technological Initiative, nor Skolkovo have given any breakthrough projects and ideas.
For such teams to appear, an environment is needed, which, alas, does not yet exist in Russia. And it is worth understanding: it cannot be created by the positions prescribed in the program. Another attempt to catch up with the West in numbers (IT companies, information transfer speed, an increase in the number of programmers, etc.) will leave the Russian economy in its usual position - forever lagging behind. To bridge the gap, we need not a “rolling plan” to fixed gross indicators, but a different approach to the problem of numbers, which was not taken into account for unclear reasons - the relationship between the digital economy and the real one.
Older people may know how to use a computer. But digitalization is not only about ICT …
INDUSTRY RESIDUE VOLUME
What do experts think about this?
“This will not only not raise the standard of living of the people, but it will also kill the remnants of the industry! - confident head of the Institute of Demography, Migration and Regional Development Yuri Krupnov. - The program focuses on certain consumer needs, smartphones and iPhones, without suggesting at all to build planes, turbines, ships, and so on. In this sense, it is an outstanding anti-industrial program!"
Krupnov states: the entire program is built on the Western theses of the development of communications and Internet technologies 30 years ago:
The subway train must arrive on time. And is it controlled by a machinist or artificial intelligence - is it so important? A doctor should be able to heal, a teacher should teach, and not use a computer.
According to statistics, Russians eat meat, vegetables and fruits and drink less milk than residents of Western countries. They are treated worse, spend less on clothes, travel less often. Every fifth Russian complains that he does not have enough money for food. And almost no one complained during opinion polls that they lacked artificial intelligence, virtual reality, 5G internet and a robot - a tram driver.
And it's hard to disagree with that.
LET'S TRANSLATE THE COUNTRY INTO FIGURES - AND LIVE
Indeed, according to the statistics published in the government program itself, things with digital technologies in Russia and without the program are not bad. So, for every hundred people we have 160 mobile phones, 71.3% of the population use mobile Internet access. The average Internet speed in Russia is 12.2 Mbit / s, and according to this indicator, Russia is on a par with France, Italy and Greece!
No, Dmitry Medvedev is sure: the happiness of the people depends entirely on the transfer of Russia to digital. A "digital environment" should be formed in Russia, which is now at the stage of development, the prime minister said:
"We need to seriously accelerate this movement, it is necessary to remove the existing obstacles to the successful development of digital infrastructure."
Economists, meanwhile, are surprised: yes, there are small countries, offshores, whose economy is based on financial services, remote registration of legal entities and other "numbers". In principle, such an economy can be called digital. But there are no large countries with the dominance of electronic products in the economy in the world!
And Alexey Voronin, co-founder of the ICO Lab investment fund, does not understand:
However, with the state regulation in Russia, things are not only in the program, but in general, the situation is rather bad. But good - with virtual reality
THREE BASIC THINGS OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY
In the growing storm of events dedicated to this topic, one can notice a certain confusion in the understanding of the term "digital economy" itself, or even a lack of understanding of the main accents that need to be placed correctly. In the heat of discussion and exchange of competent opinions, the three basic components of economic "digitalization" are sometimes forgotten. I would like to remind you of them. And all three things that should not be overlooked and that should be looked for in the very concept of "digital economy".
First, data collection and analysis
But in order to properly extract data and work with it efficiently, you need to understand why this is actually done.
Second, needs (the consumer comes to the fore, not the creator)
It may seem paradoxical, but in the context of digital data it is “needs” that expresses the word “economy” in this concept. Active informatization is transforming consumer behavior. Marketing is gradually and steadily getting closer to the essence of economic interaction, to the main driving force that makes every person get involved in economic interaction - to needs. That is, we get at our disposal a potential capable of somehow ennobling primitive consumption into a controllable zone of total comfort for each person.
Third, management
The third element in the term “digital economy” is invisible to humans. But in our case, we have to take into account the "machine vision". Then the fundamental meaning is the “invisible” gap between the words “digital” and “economy”. And in our case of a stable combination of these two concepts, we can even speak of an inseparable gap (it is absent in the government program - our note). And what does this gap represent? What can solidly and competently connect digital data to economically significant needs?
That is, there should be a unified management system for the national economic complex based on the collection and analysis of data to work out ways for the country's development, so that every citizen of the country knows what awaits him in the future.
SUCH A SYSTEM - OGAS - HAS ALREADY BEEN DEVELOPED IN THE USSR
We must remember those who did it. Especially now, in the age of the digital economy. History has confirmed that the words of Academician V. M. Glushkov that the Soviet economy in the late 70s will face enormous difficulties turned out to be prophetic.
Until the end of his life, he remained faithful to his idea of creating an OGAS, the implementation of which could have saved the dying economy.
Academician V. M. Glushakov.
We read the memoirs of Academician Viktor Mikhailovich Glushkov, recorded in the book by BN Malinovsky "The history of computing technology in faces" (published by "KIT" PTOO "ASK", Kiev, 1995, pp. 154-168):
Functional structure of OGAS.
His story about the struggle for the creation of the OGAS is an indictment against the leaders of the state who failed to fully use the powerful talent of the scientist. If only Glushkova! There is no doubt that this is one of the important reasons why a great country stumbled on the threshold of the 21st century.
And now both "Industry 4.0" and "Society 5.0" would have passed the stages long ago, and we would not need another campaign under the slogan "digital economy".
In February 1964, the creator of cybernetics, Norbert Wiener, was interviewed by US News & World Report:
Question. Did you find on your last trip to Russia that the Soviets attach great importance to the computing machine?
Answer.
Question. Are they making full use of this area of science when compared to us?
Answer.
It is unlikely that Wiener was cheating.
In 1964, Wiener warns his overseas colleagues about a possible Russian breakthrough on automation issues. Then there were the very strange ordeals of Academician Glushkov, the destruction of Brusentsov's ternary computer, and logically a working note " On the Soviet program for the forced development of computers " appeared, prepared in the midst of "perestroika" (1985-02-08) by another outstanding Soviet scientist Alexander Semenovich Narinyani - in that time, who worked at the Computing Center of the Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences, in which he says that
But Narinyani was not heard. The country has already been shaken by other processes. Amid shouts of democratization and a "free market" who needs a program for the accelerated development of computers?
And the West has achieved its goal.
The Glushkovsky project was destroyed in the second half of the 60s, partly by its own efforts, partly as part of a targeted disinformation campaign.
The idea was that the USSR was ahead in all three components of ICT - hard, software and infrastructure. Further, within the framework of the implementation of this directive, there were 3 directions:
1) preventing our scientists from training in American companies, because 2 Americans - KGB agents, specialists in computers, or rather microprocessors, were able to escape to the USSR (when they failed) and as a result, Khrushchev created Zelenograd on their initiative;
2) disinformation (which happened with the OGAS project - our note);
3) this is the maximum export of brains from the USSR, mainly mathematicians. They took out the brains within the framework of the agreement on Jewish emigration and the maximum scientific contacts of ours and the Americans in order to receive development for free.
Then the story goes like this. As such, the OGAS project was ruined. Therefore, in terms of infrastructure, we were stopped there. However, we continued to excel in mobile telephony until the mid-1980s. The first mass mobile phones were in the USSR. They were called "Altai", which were in the cars of all chiefs. The first broadband signal transmission was made in our country in the first half of the 70s. Everyone had satellite television, but no one had the ability to broadcast broadband.
This was done within the framework of one of Chelomey's projects.
As for the hardware - the hardware - the situation was more complicated. In the USSR, they could not make good silicon. Therefore, from the end of the 70s, they began to lag behind in terms of processors. But from the point of view of the architecture of our processors, they were better than the American ones. The indicator is as follows: the traditional architecture of processors (as they work now) is Babayan's Elbrus processor. They were made in the early 80s.
Finally. Narinyani received the first distributed supercomputer as part of the KGB and General Staff program. He connected several computers. This is called the Grid. Not only did they perform distributed computing. Now computers are working consistently. And they worked for him in parallel.
As for software, the most powerful functional programming languages (Lisp, Haskell are now a super-modern language, these are artificial intelligence languages). They were developed by our Ershov, the director of the Institute of Mathematics of the Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences back in the 70s. The Americans took it away. When the USSR collapsed, the main thing that was taken out was the mathematicians. They created the core of the American neural networks and artificial intelligence program. "
These are the consequences of the collapse of the USSR.
WHAT WAITS FOR THE COUNTRY FROM THE NON-DIGITAL ECONOMY?
If the digital economy was limited by the growth of Internet coverage and Russia's self-sufficiency in this area, it could be admitted that it should become a state program, no less relevant than others.
But as mentioned above, the digital economy is a program of imposing censorship on the network and is exactly the same fairy tale as all the previous government's ideas about moving to a technological track. In this regard, I would like the Government to be able to solve the real problems facing the country. For example:
carry out a full gasification of the country, which Medvedev promised to complete by 2015, although as of January 1, 2016 it was 66%. Apparently, income from gas exports is more important than the quality of life of Russians
- lead the country away from a raw material economy towards an industrially developed, technologically advanced state. Since 2008, the authorities have been insisting that the raw material model has exhausted itself and the need has come to change it. But instead of a change, they are building the Turkish Stream, gas pipelines to China, a number of gas pipeline projects to Europe;
- overcome poverty, eradicate social inequality through progressive taxation. Turn oligarchs into socially responsible citizens, and not engage in the growth of their well-being at the expense of the budget;
- to give the country an idea, a target reference point where Russia is heading, namely a national idea that unites Russian society not around one person, but around common and shared values;
- ensure a decent standard of living for citizens. When a country lags behind China and Iran, which is also under sanctions, in terms of wages, it is clear that the standard of living is not up to the desired level.
You can go on and on, but this example already shows that the introduction of the digital economy will not solve the tasks set for the country. An example of this is the speech of the Prime Minister, who said that the population should prepare for unemployment.
THE GOVERNMENT CALLED TO PREPARE FOR THE “DEATH” OF SOME PROFESSIONS DUE TO THE DIGITALIZATION OF THE ECONOMY
Therefore, according to Medvedev, In addition, he stressed, it is necessary to modernize the state apparatus so that all standard, routine, service operations are transferred to a "digital" form.
As Medvedev said, "it is important to continue this work, to ensure fair conditions for competition, including in the public procurement segment."
Analyzing this speech, the following should be noted.
Of course, this is another campaign. This is another hobby of our government. In the last quarter of a century, we have seen many such bubbles that inflate, burst, disappear. For example, for about a year and a half the slogan “Doubling the GDP” was kept. Further, “Let's turn Moscow into an international financial center”. With this they actively worn a little longer, about five years.
So, ex-President Dmitry Medvedev went to the 2008 elections under the slogan of "modernization", and his image in the eyes of voters was associated with innovation and high technology.
In 2010, on his initiative, a large-scale innovative project was even launched - the Skolkovo research center, in which the state invested huge amounts of money: tens of billions of rubles. However, the technological miracle did not work out: the money invested does not produce results, or is even withdrawn to offshores - this was reported in 2016 in the report of the Accounts Chamber on the activities of Skolkovo (https://www.forbes.ru/news/329687 -schetnaya-palata-po-itogam-proverki-skolkovo-obratilas-v-genprokuraturu).
And there was also the cry of "knowledge economy" …
And the technology of expansion works on the principle of a "Trojan horse", forcing us to recall the lines of Virgil:
We gave away cyber sovereignty for nothing (more precisely, for our own money), voluntarily for 1990-2000, and then information sovereignty. The examples of Ukraine and the Arab Spring show what it costs.
WHAT IS NOT TALKED ABOUT IN THE GOVERNMENT PROGRAM?
Probably, it is necessary to understand why it happened, what happened? Why, with the ingenious developments of Soviet scientists, we again, now in new conditions, with the transformation of both the economy and society into digital ones, are forced to catch up with someone, and not go ahead. And most importantly, how to overcome this? Let's try to answer these questions.
First, a non-spontaneous market will determine the entire process of digitalization of the economy and society. Mobilization of all resources, hard calculation and plan. Plan as a system of mathematical management of the economy and society using market mechanisms as an additional system of regulation of what the plan does not have time to regulate. It is about the plan and market complex as the pinnacle of mathematical thought based on artificial intelligence.
Secondly, the digitalization of the economy and society may again face fierce resistance from the new home-grown nomenclature, ready, like primitive Luddites, to destroy everything new, which does not allow them to sit quietly in their chairs. Why so many officials, if artificial intelligence will develop much more useful and well-grounded decisions than people in armchairs and Mercedes?
Thirdly, the digital economy requires openness and truth about all social and economic processes that take place in every village, region and country as a whole. After all, working with Big Data is meaningless without it.
Fourthly, the digital revolution technologies tighten and make transparent the entire system of control over budget spending and any funds. And there is no room for large-scale corruption, fraud and theft.
The combination of these factors suggests that the process of digitalization of the economy and society will not be serene, and in some cases will face fierce resistance or skillful imitation.
And anti-Russian sanctions are ultimately aimed at limiting the digital development of Russian society, preventing the leakage of any information about technologies that can lead Russia to the leaders in building the society of the future.
Here is the opinion of the famous expert V. Kasatonov:
And Alexander Prokhanov and Doctor of Law, cybersecurity specialist Vladimir Ovchinsky talk about how the world will change as a result of digitalization. Who will win and who will lose in the society of the victorious technosphere, why are we expecting an increase in social inequality? How the digital world is connected with kabbalistic numerology and who owns the power in the new world, this video is about this.
THE AFTERWORD
Now our country is dependent on global technologies and TNCs.
If we endlessly tell each other about the digital economy, which opens up some incredible opportunities that will make our life sparkling, we must not forget that all these opportunities can be collapsed overnight at the push of a button somewhere across the ocean. We are not saying that the Internet has become a network that amplifies any filth at times, and spreads it many times faster. Starting from the ideas of terrorism, and ending with criminal communities, which are now extremely actively working with our youth, which we also consider a threat to the security of future generations. We will have to develop understandable, but at the same time tough and uncompromising legislative measures to limit these threats, and secondly, a technical base that would allow to close these gates at the right time or open them as needed, a gap,adjust the clearance. By the way, this will become an area for creating our own high-tech technologies and equipment. We need to get out of this dependence. We are in too many of these dependencies on the world's global infrastructure, which is controlled by the Americans, from financial to technical. This is a very serious situation that we believe needs to be addressed. But first it is necessary to deal with the development of the real economy. But first it is necessary to deal with the development of the real economy. But first it is necessary to deal with the development of the real economy.
However, the boundaries of the digital economy should be taken into account at the same time. This is, first of all, the fact that its fundamental and applied aspects are developed within the framework of Aristotelian chrematistics, the capitalist system, i.e. "Monetary civilization" according to V. Yu. Katasonov, and not in accordance with Aristotelian oikonomikos as a socially useful harmonious (in harmony with the soul and nature) ethical economy (Theoretical economy: reality, virtuality and myth-making / Moscow State University, Center for Social Sciences..; under the editorship of Yu. M. Osipov, E. S. Zotova. - M.: Teis, 2000. - 319 p.).
First, the theory and practice of the digital economy ignores ethical and spiritual - moral principles. The project of creating cyborgs is not evaluated in these positions.
Secondly, it is currently known that cryptocurrency (bitcoin) is banned in Russia due to its uncontrolled circulation and the wide possibility of money laundering.
Third, the digital divide has emerged and is expanding. Monopoly ownership of information is a factor in obtaining intellectual rent and high super-profits.
Fourthly, economic relations are becoming more and more impersonal, the possibility of economic crimes, for example, hacking, is increasing. The theoretical and practical aspects of the digital economy can be developed only through the use of an interdisciplinary method of scientific research, in particular, at the intersection of economic philosophy, economic theory, and applied mathematics, together with specialists in the field of computer science.
Indeed, the modern world, including the economic world, is becoming more and more technological. Technological thought is now merging with economic thought (in fact, chrematistic, unfortunately, not house-building). The objective of the philosophy of the economy is to "separate flies from cutlets" and find the true points and models of the qualitative economic development of Russia. That, unfortunately, was not properly reflected in the government program.