Elon Musk published a manifesto in which he recalled what electric vehicles - and cars in general - should be like in his opinion. As you know, Elon Musk's opinion determines the course of development of his companies, including Tesla. Is it worth talking about the importance of this manifesto? Further from the first person.
The first master plan, which I wrote 10 years ago, is now in its final stages. It was not that difficult and consisted, in fact, of the following:
- To release a small batch of cars that are sure to be expensive
- Use this money to develop a car that will be released in a larger volume
- Use this money to build an affordable mass-produced vehicle
and…
- Provide it with solar energy. No kidding, it really hung on our site for 10 years.
The reason we had to start with the first step is because that's all I could do with PayPal. I thought our chances of success were so low that I couldn't risk other people's money and would start with mine. The list of successful companies that suddenly decided to engage in automobiles is very short. As of 2016, the number of American auto companies that did not go bankrupt is two: Ford and Tesla. Starting a car company is idiocy, and an electric car company is idiocy squared.
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In addition, a car that will be produced in small numbers means a simpler and smaller factory, where most of the things will be made by hand. Without the ability to economize on production scale, everything we built would be expensive, be it an economy sedan or a sports car. And while some people are willing to pay a high price for a sports car, no one will shell out $ 100,000 for an electric Honda Civic, no matter how cool it looks.
One of the reasons I wrote the first master plan was to defend against the inevitable attacks that would follow on Tesla, accusing us of only caring for rich people, as if there weren't many sports car manufacturers, or in something more bizarre. Unfortunately, this bloc did not stop countless articles accusing us of exactly all this, so this goal was not achieved.
However, the main reason was trying to explain how our actions fit into the big picture so that they seem less random. The point of all this was - and still is - to accelerate the onset of "stable" energy so that we can see the future and life is still good. That's what stable means. This is not some nonsense - it is important for everyone.
One way or another, at some point we must achieve a stable energy economy, or we run out of fossil fuels and civilization will collapse. Given that we will inevitably run out of fossil fuels and virtually all scientists agree that drastic increases in atmospheric and ocean carbon levels are insane, the sooner we achieve stability, the better.
Here is the plan, following which we will bring this day closer.
Integration of energy generation and storage
To create a well-integrated and beautiful solar panel and battery product that works, supports itself, and then scale it to the world. One ordering process, one installation, one service, one phone app.
We cannot do this well if Tesla and SolarCity are different companies, which is why we must bring them together and break down the barriers that separate them. The fact that they are separated, despite similar origins and striving for the same goal - stable energy - is largely a historical accident. Now that Tesla is ready to scale the Powerwall and SolarCity is ready to provide solar cells, it's time to put them together.
Unfold and embrace major forms of ground transportation
Tesla is currently engaged in two relatively small segments of premium sedans and SUVs. With the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck, we aim to reach a large portion of the consumer market. Transport cheaper than Model 3 is unlikely to be needed due to the third part of the plan described below.
What is really important to accelerate the onset of a stable future is the ability to increase production as quickly as possible. This is why Tesla's engineering has focused so much on making the machines that make the cars - turning the factory itself into a product. A first analysis of the fundamental physics of automotive manufacturing says that a 5-10x improvement is achievable for version 3 in about a 2-year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 machine factory can be considered version 0.5, and version 1.0 will be out a year by 2018.
In addition to consumer transport, there are two other types of electric transport required: heavy trucks and high passenger density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and will be revealed next year. We believe the Tesla Semi will be able to deliver a significant reduction in the cost of freight transport, along with increased safety and exciting work.
With the advent of autonomy, it probably makes sense to reduce the size of buses and transfer the role of bus driver to the fleet operator. Traffic congestion will improve with increased passenger density by eliminating the central aisle and placing seats where there are currently doors, while matching vehicle acceleration and braking will smooth out the traffic of traditional heavy buses. People will also be transported directly to their destination. Dedicated buttons on existing bus stops will serve those without a telephone. The design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bicycles.
Autonomy
As technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will receive the hardware needed for fully self-driving with anti-rollback capabilities, meaning any system in the car can break down and continue to drive safely. It is important to emphasize that software debugging and calibration will take a lot longer than placing cameras, radars, sonars, and computer software.
Even after the software is fine-tuned to perform better than the average driver, it will take time for self-driving cars to get regulatory approval. We expect it will take around 10 billion kilometers to wind around the world to get approved. The fleet currently reels about 5 million kilometers a day.
I have to explain a little why Tesla has deployed partial autonomy now, rather than waiting for something in the future. Most importantly, if used correctly, it is already significantly safer than driving by human forces, and it would be immoral to delay the release of this safe method for fear of bad press or some kind of mercantile calculation of legal liability.
Fatal car accidents have increased by 8% to one death for every 89 million miles, according to a recent NHTSA report in 2015. Autopilot miles will soon double that number, and the system is getting better every day. There is no longer any point in turning off Tesla's autopilot, as some have urged, just as there is no point in turning off the autopilot on the plane, after which our system is named.
It is also important to explain why we are referring to Autopilot as beta. This is not beta software in the usual sense of the word. Every release undergoes extensive internal review before reaching customers. It is called Beta for the purpose of reducing complacency and to show that he continues to improve. Autopilot is always off by default. Once we reach the point where the autopilot is 10 times safer than a regular car in the US, the beta label will be removed.
Schering
When real self-government is approved by the regulators, you can call your Tesla from anywhere. Once in it, you can sleep, read or do something else.
You can also add your car to the Tesla fleet by pressing a button on the app on your phone, and give it the opportunity to earn money for you while you are at work or on vacation, significantly reducing, and perhaps even bringing in, the cost of maintaining the car. This will significantly reduce the cost of car ownership: anyone can afford a Tesla. Since most cars are used for 5-10% of the day, the benefits of a self-driving car running will be many times higher than any other.
In cities where demand will exceed supply, Tesla will maintain its own fleet, ensuring that you can always ride, no matter where you are.
In short, the master plan, part two, is:
- Create gorgeous solar roofs with discreetly integrated battery packs
- Expand the production line of transport, providing all the main segments
- Develop a self-driving capability that is 10 times safer than manual driving through massive fleet training
- Let your car make money for you while you are not using it.
ILYA KHEL
