"Happiness for everyone, for nothing, and let no one leave offended!" - A. and B. Strugatsky.
This text is not about Ukraine, but about everyone who dreams of universal happiness, prosperity and "normal life". All those who sincerely believe that reaching the famous formula of the Strugatsky brothers can be done quickly and simply, as long as you want to, fight corruption, choose another Yeltsin, Navalny, etc. About those who regularly and sincerely resent - why do I need all these ingenuities, I just want to live "normally"! But the vast Universe does not care about the dreams and desires of a little person, so that the latter does not think about himself.
The nature of people is such that for the most part they do not want / are not ready to look beyond current problems - I want everything good, here and now, but I don’t care how. There is nothing surprising in this, but it is impossible to do it. Anyone who claims otherwise, or romantics out of this world, or cynics.
Let us turn to romantics, we can call their representations infantilism, we can not call them, the essence does not change. The phrases in the style “we just want to live normally” are very revealing. Trying to explain that it makes no sense to compare the current situation with an idealized dream is a thankless task. Everyone wants to be brilliant, rich and beautiful heroes, but all these criteria are not absolute, but relative. Wealth is possible only in relation to the presence of a large number of less well-off people and so on in everything.
It is not productive to compare the current situation with a childhood dream; one should always look at the real and possible alternatives.
General equality in the world
The people / country / humanity has a common, total volume of goods produced and, surprisingly, when divided by all, it turns out to be very small.
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If we calculate the level of GDP per person in the world, we will get $ 11.2 thousand per year, this is the level of Tunisia, Namibia, etc., 6-10 times less than in the ten most prosperous countries. It turns out that if divided by the whole world, it is necessary to reduce the standard of living in Russia by more than two times.
And now let's recall the static, accounting nature of the GDP indicator and its falsification (multiple accounting, intellectual property, services to oneself, etc.).
In fact, the level of expenses / income per person should be reduced by at least 50% due to statistical tricks as directed by international institutions. For example, after adjusting the methods and recalculating in 2016, Russia's GDP growth in 2011 (recalculated - 60.3 trillion rubles) in relation to 2010 (not recalculated - 46.3 trillion rubles) amounted to 30%. Well, who does not remember this blessed 2011, when practically the manna from heaven fell to earth?
And such tricks are regular, but all over the world, methods are recommended / imposed by the IMF, the World Bank, etc.
Further, from 30 thousand rubles a month (average income minus 50% of the markup) it is necessary to remove the spending on the army, infrastructure, social contributions, etc., and lo and behold - we will go out for 15-20 thousand per person. For villages and regional centers it is tolerable, for big cities it is a disaster.
It turns out that general equality within the world will not suit us.
Live like in Europe and America
What does the majority mean by "a normal standard of living"? An idealized view of Europe and the United States through television pictures and tourist trips. But these ideas are several times higher than reality. If we are not talking about social drama, then the upper middle class is shown as a typical way of life - it is more pleasant to watch. Compare with the majority of Russian films - the same huge apartments, cars and other goods.
Can this be provided in Russia? You can, but let's decide in advance who in the world we will rob in such volumes, the total amount of goods produced on the planet will not change dramatically, all that remains is to build a pyramid of unequal exchange (robbery) of the periphery, repeating the experience of Europe and the USA. Within the framework of one enterprise, the plant management can talk as long as he wants about his high labor productivity in relation to the workers.
Further, it sounds - we have natural resources, so we should get more. It is not at all necessary, within the framework of the production chain, some profit is formed and the whole question is how exactly this profit is distributed. In industrialized countries, it is believed that this should be done in high redistributions, and in developing countries - when extracting raw materials. The consensus will change and there will be all profits in Germany, Japan and the USA, and we have low prices for all raw materials.
The global world is collapsing and we need to create our own pan-region so that the main chains are completely within the region, and we ourselves determine which industries to give preferences.
Thus, it will not be possible to achieve "normal life" at the expense of natural resources.
Can I join someone? It's not far here, goblins with a catapult tried to integrate into the chains of Europe with high salaries and a high level of medicine. Recently, instead of a fat and drunken one, they chose a green, shortened goblin, just not to see their well-being, on the contrary, 2013 is increasingly associated with the golden age.
Equality within the country
What remains is the establishment of equality within the country. We had such a period - the late Stalinist economy of 1948-1956, when the ratio of incomes of the upper and lower de-goals was less than 3.5. Is everyone ready to go back to such leveling? What are the salaries in Moscow and the regions? What share of the income will the general consumption funds take away? Will the gundezh start again - "transfer me to self-financing"?
All those who stand up for equality, but yearn for privileges, must honestly answer to themselves - what is unique about them, what objective criteria will make them one of the 1% or 0.1% of the most valuable people in the country / world? No answer?
Who will be offended in the first place? Residents of big cities, for the most part, will not be afraid of this expression - office plankton, regardless of position and status. Here is a small lyrical digression.
I had a boss, a difficult and specific person, but he has a huge plus - a great sense of humor. Somehow, colleagues return from a meeting on the development of a new direction of work - marketing (from whom to buy and for how much). They took me (the strategist) to previous gatherings, but after I did not say a word during the meeting, I drew, read, snorted, well, except that I did not look at obscene pictures on my phone, the hint that I had nothing to do there was understood …
So, the dream team of “marketers” returns from the meeting and one participant, even if his name is Aslan (names were once invented by someone and may not coincide with the real ones), is directly glowing with the desire to share his impressions. Let's go to lunch with him and then the story:
It will not be possible to make everyone in the country live like in Moscow, but on the contrary, so that the inhabitants of the regions began to live better, at the expense of the navoris and Muscovites - completely, through the "Left Turn" and the risks of civil war.
What will this standard of living be like when state capitalism / socialism returns? The percentage is 20-30 %% higher than the current regional average. Not such a bad result, only gentlemen Muscovites, officials, the "creative class" and other talents - you will not have cottages, comfortable cars, spacious offices and rest abroad. And there will be only tough responsibility for the result.
So it turns out that the most zealous supporters of change, bog veterans and their sympathizers, will be the most disadvantaged.
What will happen for the rest? Instead of ten types of milk, there will be a package of one type, of a specific chain / trust / group of stores. Private business in the form of artels / cooperatives, without the ability to transfer shares by inheritance, all large and medium-sized ones have been nationalized.
Well, all sorts of bawlers and just fighters against other people's corruption, like Navalny, happily go to work at the plant. A mobilization economy is incompatible with show business-style elections.
What to prepare for?
The question remains what to do for all those who understand that it is impossible to live by illusions, and their own significance on the scale of the country and the world does not allow them to participate in writing the rules of the game for everyone.
Regardless of the path chosen, the next 15-20 years will be difficult not so much for Russia, but for the whole world as a whole. The level of consumption will drop very much, in developed countries 50-60%, we have about 20%, and if you do everything according to your mind, then less. There will be no "normal life", as many see it.
It is necessary to clearly understand that all talk about the good for everyone will end either with the destruction of the economy for the good of other countries or with a change of power groups and no more. Building a society of well-being for all is a process for several generations, with a complete reshaping of the economic, social, mental, etc. spheres of life. Well, we are all unlucky, we are on the verge of a big collapse.
What most people should have done in recent years:
- create a reserve base / farm where you can at least partially feed yourself for several years, if you completely press on with work;
- a hunting rifle with cartridges, a machine that is easy to operate and has a high cross-country ability (these are farm options);
- do not get into loans, but rather make a stash in metallic gold (for several years) and dollars (no more than six months after the collapse);
- refuse status purchases;
- build up useful social connections;
- invest in children and their upbringing;
- master the second specialty, which is in demand in a situation of crisis and temporary simplification of production chains (for most, this is a job related to production) or become a unique specialist (promote your “brand” in the social environment).
Is this a recipe for everyone? So I immediately said that times will be extremely difficult and everyone will not be able to help.
What can you say about social and political life? The main thing is, do not follow the provocateurs, listen only to those who can give a detailed and consistent answer to the question "What to do?", They, at least, have understanding, not a salad in their heads.
Conclusion
Thus, we get the following:
- equality within the world means a drop in living standards in Russia by half;
- the hope for a decent life at the expense of natural resources is an unrealistic dream;
- an attempt to divide it equally among all within the country will lead to a sharp drop in the standard of living of the population of large cities, primarily Moscow, and the risk of civil war.
Is this text an ode to predestination? Not. Find uniqueness that is recognized by others. The significance of a person's dreams and desires is directly proportional to his significance within the country / world. What have you done that no one else has done before? What did you do so that others knew about it and could appreciate it? We will talk about this path another time.
What is left for the rest to do? Prepare for troubled times. The next 15-20 years will be very difficult for everyone in the world, and for us too. Whether we follow the path of reforms from above or rebellion from below, it will not be easy for anyone. Most of the modern bureaucracy and the rich in 5-10 years will not differ much from the majority of the population in terms of living standards, since they are not at all adapted to the coming changes.
The wind doesn't give a damn about the fate and opinion of the leaves that it picked up. Well, it fell to us not only to face a strong wind, we are all caught up in a hurricane. I do not do predictions, I show possible variants of events and give advice on how to make a profit or at least minimize losses.
Author: ANDREY SHKOLNIKOV
