As Kommersant learned, Russia is ready to support the proposal of France and Germany to adopt a political declaration at the UN, which would speak of the importance of maintaining human control over autonomous weapons systems. Representatives of more than 80 countries and international organizations will discuss this initiative in late August in Geneva. Meanwhile, as the Russian Foreign Ministry explained to Kommersant, Moscow is categorically against the introduction of legally binding restrictions in this area, since full-fledged artificial intelligence does not yet exist. Supporters of the "killer robots" ban, however, warn that technology is advancing so rapidly that diplomats may simply not be able to prevent a catastrophe. Kommersant understood the intricacies of the new direction of world diplomacy.
Retain human control
The negotiations of the Group of Governmental Experts on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (SAS) will be held in Geneva on August 27-31 under the auspices of the UN Diplomats began to discuss this topic in detail quite recently: the first such meeting took place in December 2017, and the second in April 2018. The format of the Convention on Non-Human Weapons was chosen as a discussion platform. It was within its framework that the bans of cluster munitions, napalm, blinding lasers and anti-personnel mines were born in due time.
Several states have come forward with the initiative to ban SAS. Among them, for example, Austria, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and the Vatican. In total, 26 countries currently support the idea of a ban.
The logic of the initiators of radical measures is as follows: artificial intelligence technologies are developing at a fast pace, and the emergence of fully autonomous machines capable of making decisions and acting without human control is not far off; states are investing heavily in the adaptation of these technologies for military needs, and a number of countries already have systems with elements of artificial intelligence (from the integration of air defense systems to "flocks" of drones capable of attacking in a swarm, robotic sentries and devices for neutralizing explosives). devices); This means that in five to ten years the world may face the introduction of killer robots onto the battlefield, which will independently select targets and attack them. Hence the requirement to ban completely autonomous lethal systems:its initiators insist on the adoption of a legally binding international treaty that would require states to ensure that proper human control over machines is maintained. As the coordinator of the global campaign “Stop Killer Robots” Mary Verham explained to Kommersant, “proper control” means the possibility of operator intervention in the process of selecting a target and carrying out an attack.
Supporters of this idea have great public support. Published by the American organization Future of Life Institute on July 18, a petition demanding a ban on the creation of fully autonomous combat robots has been signed by nearly 2,500 scientists, engineers, public figures and representatives of the IT business. The supporters of radical measures have already achieved some success. So, until December 2017, the CAC topic in Geneva was discussed only informally for three years. However, at the end of last year, 123 states approved the idea of officially giving the group a discussion mandate. The initiators of the ban on autonomous combat robots hope that the meeting scheduled for the end of August will be a step towards endowing the group with a full-fledged negotiation format - that is, it will open the way for the development of a convention banning SAS.
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Speculative systems
However, many countries are skeptical about the idea of banning such systems. Among them is Russia. Her delegation (consisting of representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Industry and Trade), although preparing to leave for Geneva, is not ready to talk about a significant restriction or complete prohibition of SAS, and therefore opposes giving the Group of Governmental Experts a negotiating mandate. As the Russian Foreign Ministry explained to Kommersant, such a “cautious” attitude “is due to a number of circumstances.” “First of all, we must take into account that we are talking about equipment that does not yet have really operating samples. The idea of such systems is still only very superficial and speculative, - remind in the department. - Serious difficulties are observed even in the development of a working version of the definition of the term SAS.
Secondly, the Foreign Ministry points to "difficulties with a clear distinction between civilian and military developments in the field of autonomous systems." And thirdly, the ministry "has significant doubts about the insufficiency of the current international legal framework for the regulation of SAS, indicated by radical states and non-governmental organizations." “In our opinion, international law (including its humanitarian branch) is fully applicable to the SAS and does not need modernization or adaptation to such as yet non-existent weapons systems,” the Smolenskaya Square assures. And they add: “Russia strictly adheres to the norms of international humanitarian law applicable to this promising type of weapons. Russian national legislation contains provisionsthat pose a barrier to the possible commissioning of weapons that do not comply with Russia's international legal obligations”.
Note that the Russian military is actively adapting elements of artificial intelligence for their own purposes. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are armed with robotic maritime complexes "Galtel", which, after receiving a task, are able to independently analyze the situation and choose ways to solve it. Oleg Martyanov, a member of the board of the military-industrial commission of the Russian Federation, told Interfax that since 2017 these systems have been searching for unexploded ordnance and protecting the water area in the area of the Syrian port of Tartus. It was also reported that the RB-109A "Bylina" system, capable of independently analyzing the combat situation and choosing methods of suppressing enemy signals, had entered the electronic warfare troops of the RF Armed Forces. It is planned to endow almost all of the latest Russian weapons systems with elements of artificial intelligence - from cruise missiles to tanks and fighters. Russian President Vladimir Putin said last September that a country that has achieved leadership in the creation of artificial intelligence "will be the ruler of the world."
In the meantime, Russia in this area is inferior to the positions of the United States and China. In general, according to analysts of the American research company MarketsandMarkets, the world market for artificial intelligence technologies for military purposes in 2017 amounted to $ 6.26 billion. Experts believe that by 2025 this figure will rise to $ 18.82 billion. Among the leading companies in the global market are the first three positions are occupied by the giants of the American military-industrial complex: Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and Northrop Grumman.
In this regard, it is not surprising that the US authorities are not ready to substantively discuss a moratorium on the creation of autonomous combat robots. Other countries actively investing in innovative weapons adhere to the same position: Great Britain, France, Germany, Israel, Japan, and South Korea. The only UN Security Council member state to support the drafting of a convention banning SAS was unexpectedly China in April this year. However, in Beijing they make a reservation: we can only talk about prohibiting the use of fully autonomous combat systems, but not about restrictions on their development and creation.
Be that as it may, given the unwillingness of the leading countries to discuss any bans in this area, supporters of radical measures can hardly hope for rapid progress. A compromise could be a proposal from France and Germany, which is expected to be considered at the session in Geneva. Paris and Berlin are proposing a political statement in which countries would ensure that humans play a key role in the deployment of autonomous combat systems in any event and can maintain control over their actions.
The Russian Foreign Ministry explained to Kommersant that Moscow does not object to the start of the preparation of a political declaration on SAS at the site of the Convention on Inhumane Weapons, on the understanding that it will be agreed upon following the work of the relevant Group of Government Experts. The ministry emphasizes that the actions of the Russian delegation will depend on the "concrete content" of this declaration and on whether the document will take into account Russia's position. The Russian negotiators, as the Russian Foreign Ministry assured Kommersant, are ready to “get involved” in drafting the text and generally believe that its adoption would be a “useful result” of the activities of the Group of Governmental Experts.
According to Mary Verham's interview, supporters of the prohibition of killer robots will not be satisfied with this measure. But they cannot count on more at the moment.
Elena Chernenko