Last Friday, the expert council of the military-industrial complex (Military-Industrial Commission) discussed the yet unpublished and pending government approval strategy for the development of the Russian space agency Roscosmos until 2025, as well as the development prospects until 2030. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, speaking at the meeting, said that the industry needs customers who will be primarily interested not in the process of project implementation, as is often the case now, but in the final result.
As an example, Rozogin cited the International Space Station (ISS), where some separate scientific research was carried out 10 years ago, and now it is not possible to find people interested in their undertaking. The Deputy Prime Minister also said that now it is necessary to decide whether a person is needed at all in orbit. If the answer to this question cannot be found, then an assessment should be carried out and find out whether it is worth focusing on space exploration by automata (read: robots). Igor Komarov, the general director of Roscosmos, who was present at the meeting, in turn, proposed to move from the flight test stage (which lasts almost two decades) to the stage of operation of the ISS Russian segment. In addition, Komarov proposed to get away from the permanent presence of the Russian crew at this station and focus instead on one-time space missions.
Another representative of Roscosmos, General Designer for Manned Systems, Evgeny Markin, shared that in the near future (by the end of 2018, according to the plans presented in the presentation), a new Russian scientific module will be sent to the ISS. By 2020, it is planned to deliver two more modules to the station, and then it will be necessary to finally resolve the issue of the future of Russian participation in the ISS program. Various world space agencies working with the ISS have agreed to use and support the station until 2024. The Russian side, in turn, does not exclude the possibility of undocking the Russian part of the ISS after 2024 for further autonomous use.
As the designer of control systems for Soviet and Russian spacecraft (including the Mir station) Vladimir Branets noted, the creation of space stations began back in the 70s. There was a lot of enthusiasm for this work. However, the world's most extensive domestic experience in this area has shown that there are no technologies requiring mandatory human participation, just as there are no obvious prospects for unique production at space stations. The designer believes that the United States will refuse to support the ISS after 2024 and will continue further space exploration in its own way.
Particular attention at the meeting regarding the further development strategy of the Russian space segment was paid to the issue of commercializing space technologies and raising the level of public-private partnerships to increase the level of Russia's presence in the world market in this area. However, as noted, in order to resolve this issue, it is first necessary to increase the reliability of Russian carriers, which has decreased in recent years. According to Rogozin, now it is at a low level and amounts to about 93 percent. By 2020, this level of reliability should increase to 96 percent, and in the next five years after that - to 99 percent. In addition, it is necessary to resolve the issue of the prospects for the use of super-heavy launch vehicles. According to Alexander Medvedev, general designer for launch vehicles,Russia now has no opportunity to launch into geostationary orbit objects similar to "secret American satellites up to 100 meters in size."
The return to the construction of a super-heavy launch vehicle to replace Energia, which was destroyed during the restructuring process, was fully supported by the former Soviet Minister of General Machine Building Oleg Baklanov. However, he considers the use of launch vehicles with a reusable stage, as suggested by SpaceX, to be justified only when it comes to the ultralight class. The Falcon 9 rocket, in turn, is a medium / heavy class. Such new missiles, according to the expert, could be used to compensate for the losses of networks of low-orbit communication light satellites. According to the proposed strategy, work on this type of media will begin no earlier than 2028, and the development of a reusable version no earlier than 2030.
As noted by the expert of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Konstantin Makienko, the implementation of the discussed projects will largely depend on budgetary constraints. At the same time, military projects, such as the creation of a new segment of space missile attack warning systems, will be subject to the least risk of refusal to implement.
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