Today, the price of oil influences important processes in the world. The national strategy of many states depends on it, as well as the value of currencies. Oil is a cheap energy resource. It produces gasoline, kerosene, fertilizers, rubber and plastic, and even cosmetics - lipstick and hair dye.
Black gold has created civilization, and it can also become its killer. There is a decline in oil production associated with the depletion of hydrocarbon reserves. In this regard, power engineer R. Duncan developed an interesting hypothesis, which was called the Olduvai theory. Perhaps soon we will all test it for ourselves.
Olduvai - the cradle of humanity
In the northern part of Tanzania there is a gorge that is well known among archaeologists, it is called Olduvai. With a length of about 40 kilometers, its area reaches 250 km2. Olduvai is famous for its prehistoric finds. Here, in the middle of the 20th century, archaeologists discovered the remains of the oldest man who lived on earth about 2 million years ago. Outwardly, these people looked like monkeys, but they were already endowed with intelligence and used stone tools.
The average height of an ancient man was about one and a half meters. He moved on two legs, and his life expectancy reached 25 years. The main occupations of the ancient man were hunting and searching for berries and roots. Thus, the progenitors of modern civilization existed for about five hundred thousand years.
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Because of such finds, Olduvai began to be called the cradle of humanity. A thorough examination of the local area helped establish that the first people made bows and spears, and not tools. By the way, the developers of the Olduvai theory believe that this is exactly the kind of existence we all will have in the very near future.
The summit has already been passed
A renowned American explorer named Richard Duncan visited Olduvai in the early 21st century, a journey that was the starting point for the creation of Olduvai theory. Its essence lies in the fact that it is the life of an ancient man that is considered normal for the entire human species. Nature gave birth to humanity just for such an existence, and someday people will return to such a life.
According to Duncan's calculations, the history of any civilization can be represented in the form of a mountain: the path to the top, the plateau and the descent from the mountain. He believes that modern humanity has already reached the peak, on which it can hold out for about a hundred years.
Consequently, the fall of civilization will soon begin. Humanity will slide down to the level of the last century, then the one before last, and, ultimately, will be at the level of primitive man.
Back to the cave
How can you explain Duncan's unusual prediction? According to the theory of the expert, we have reached the current level of development only thanks to the colossal energy reserves that nature has placed at our disposal in the form of gas and oil. But natural bins are becoming scarce, and there is nothing to replenish them with.
The American analyst's doctrine is based on economic and analytical calculations. In his theory, there are three phases of human development. The first is pre-industrial, which was made for periods A and B. About 3,000,000 years ago, period A. began. Its end falls on the 1769th year, when the steam engine was built. During this period of time, mankind used renewable solar energy, as well as the energy of water and wind.
Then, until the onset of the twenties of the 20th century, period B. lasted. It was the time of simple but solid tools and machines, and, in addition, the use of non-renewable energy resources, in particular oil.
One of the main indicators of the peak of human development is 30 percent of the maximum energy consumption. In 1930, this indicator was achieved, which marked the beginning of the second phase of development. Presumably, it will last for about a hundred years, until the level of gas and oil consumption reaches 37%. Then a sharp economic downturn will begin.
The third phase of human development, known as post-industrial, will begin in 2030. The amount of energy consumed will constantly decrease, and civilization will begin to move backward. High development will be short-lived, and the person will return "to his origins."
What to do to survive
Despite its extravagance, the Olduvai theory has many supporters. Indeed, oil reserves are catastrophically melting, and there is no alternative to them. Soon we will face two paths - either we find a substitute for oil (for example, we use atomic energy) or we are slowly degrading technically.
Nuclear energy currently accounts for 15% of total energy consumption. In the short term, this figure will not change due to the high cost of building nuclear power plants and the hazards associated with their operation.
So to many pragmatists the Olduvai theory no longer seems far-fetched. It is believed that in a decade and a half there will be no oil. Meanwhile, there are still no alternative energy sources to maintain the existing level of development.
Matthew Stein in his book "The End of Technology …", which instantly became a bestseller in 2000, declares that the danger is close, and also gives advice for survival in a primitive society: how to replace medicines, what plants are suitable for consumption, how to find drinking water. The section on self-hypnosis is highlighted in the book. A person will have to temper his spirit against the background of previous bright memories.
What the opponents of the theory think
It is quite natural that any hypothesis has its opponents. By the way, its author also admits a different course of events (among other scenarios, he especially highlights a global nuclear catastrophe).
Nobel laureate R. Solow says that in the past decade the US economy has been growing due to innovations in technology and gadgets, and not due to cheap energy sources. Professor K. Rogoff, professor at Harvard University, argues that oil prices have a stimulating effect on new technologies. When oil reserves are reduced, its price will rise, and alternative fuels will no longer seem unprofitable.
And why should humanity necessarily return to the caves, and not "slide" to the level of the 16th or 17th century, where people did just fine without gas and oil? Duncan's rapid regression is also highly questionable. He suggests that in two generations we will move to caves. But have we so long and persistently been improving technology only in order to then head over heels off the peak of our development?
What do you still need to fear
Analyst R. Duncan is confident that the fall of civilization will be rapid. When the threat of the disappearance of energy resources becomes obvious, a terrible war will begin for their possession. According to his calculations, by the end of the 21st century, the population of the Earth will decrease several times, and will constantly decrease. A significant part of humanity can die from war, hunger and various epidemics, and all the rest will continue to die out and gradually degrade.
The Hubbert plot showing the volume of oil produced in the previous and future periods of time is a bell-shaped curved line. R. Duncan's human development chart looks exactly the same. We are now standing at the top of this "bell". What does humanity need to do so that it does not call upon our death?