French and Chilean seismologists predicted that the strongest earthquake on the planet will occur in the next few decades in the area of the city of Santiago (Chile). The minimum earthquake magnitude is estimated at 8.3. A related study was published in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters.
The cause of the earthquake in South America will be the sinking of the Nazca oceanic plate under the South American plate, occurring at a speed of about eight centimeters per year. In the Santiago area, meanwhile, this process is slowed down due to friction between the lithospheric plates - a gap of 4.5 meters in the depth of the oceanic crust sinking under the continental one is catching up every 70 years during strong earthquakes.
The epicenter of the earthquake should fall on the city of Valparaiso, located a hundred kilometers from the capital of Chile. The probability of an earthquake in 2017 is estimated at three percent, which is two to three times higher than normal. Over time, the risks of disaster will increase.
Experts came to such conclusions by analyzing data on the earthquake that occurred in the vicinity of the city of Ilhapel in September 2015. Then the maximum magnitude was 8.3. Over the past centuries, powerful earthquakes in Ilhapela have occurred at intervals of 60-80 years.
The authors note that the most powerful earthquake in the history of mankind also occurred in Chile, in 1960, 570 kilometers south of Santiago, its magnitude was 9.5.