The world's largest experiment to cool the planet by changing the atmosphere has already begun. It is very important that it continues, says Jamey Cashio. Some scientists who are developing methods to geoengineer change the atmosphere to cool the Earth think this is a very scary idea. Unfortunately, we need to accept and use this terrible idea soon.
Attempts to manage solar radiation (SRM) aim to slow down the more catastrophic aspects of global temperature rise by adding particles to the upper atmosphere that can reflect a small percentage of incoming sunlight and potentially slow, stop, or even reverse the warming process.
Scientists at Harvard University are about to launch a project to field test this idea and see if it actually works. It will be done on a much smaller scale than is needed to change planetary temperatures, but it will still be the world's largest test of this method. The plan is to spray chemicals like calcium carbonate into the stratosphere from a hot air balloon over Arizona.
Geoengineering researchers go to great lengths to emphasize that this method, which is relatively quick to deploy and reasonably cheap, will not be a permanent solution to the problem of global warming. In essence, it will be a climate tourniquet that can temporarily stop the upward flow of temperatures and the dangers that follow.
A dangerous idea
By itself, SRM will not be able to stop the rise in atmospheric CO2 and will not stop the increasing acidification of the oceans. It also carries risks: possible environmental side effects include massive droughts and disrupted rainfall patterns, not to mention that political interventions can be dangerous in and of themselves.
But despite all these flaws, we can ultimately use this process. Why? Because efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the planet are rather sluggish and the chances of keeping the global temperature rise below the dangerous level of 1.5 degrees are considered unlikely.
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Even containing 2 degrees of warming seems questionable. And climatologists believe that warming above 3 degrees Celsius can lead to "catastrophic" and "apocalyptic" consequences.
But the longer we wait without starting work, the more likely it is that warming will surpass the 3-degree threshold, even after we become seriously concerned about it. This delay causes one major complication: the lag between action and effect. Due to various geophysical factors, such as the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, even a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions will not immediately stop the rise in temperature.
Political implications
On a planetary level, this means that our best efforts may not be enough to keep the temperature at a livable level. In terms of politics, this means that billions of people and many countries will experience major changes in their lives and economies. Imagine what will happen if we curb the emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and the temperature continues to rise and the climate changes.
This is the importance of the Harvard trials, which can lead to a temporary pause that could help avoid such serious consequences. Comprehensive computer simulations show that SRM can contain temperature, and observations of real, similar natural phenomena support this idea, but no one has yet tested this idea outside the laboratory.
We need to understand how it works, and more importantly, how it can help us meet the inevitable. And while full SRM deployment may seem like a daunting prospect, it may be our only option and avoid even worse outcomes.
ILYA KHEL