Specialists-meteorologists told what we should be afraid of.
Roshydromet has published a Report on Climate Risks in Russia. The World Economic Forum has ranked climate change first in the ranking of global threats - even ahead of terrorism. What can we expect? What's going on with the weather? Leading Russian experts are talking about this.
Scientists, in general, do not need to convince us that something is wrong with the weather. Take Moscow alone as an example: for the year we got June snowfalls, cold summer, December showers, New Year without snow, and record snowfall in early February. At that time in Siberia, even by Siberian standards, anomalous frosts cracked, Paris suffered from floods, legendary canals dried up in Venice, Spain was covered with snow all the way to the Canaries, the Caribbean still cannot recover from catastrophic hurricanes …
The list is long, every day in the world some kind of weather anomaly happens. And you have to get used to it - here the forecast of meteorologists is more like a diagnosis. Normal weather will be news soon. Yes, however, it has already become. Snow! In winter! In Moscow! Wow! What a news! Well, how not to be surprised if he was not there before January 5.
Normal weather will be news soon.
Quote from the report of Roshydromet: "During the 21st century on the territory of Russia there is likely to be an increase in the" sharpness "of precipitation in the form of separate showers or snowfalls, an increase in the number of severe floods and floods, storm winds, weather fluctuations in the form of a series of cold and warm periods."
What kind of weather awaits us instead of normal?
Promotional video:
NERVOUS: FROM HEAT TO COLD
- Either heat, then cold, then extreme showers, then drought - in short, - clearly and briefly states the head of Roshydromet Maxim Yakovenko.
- It is too late to say that we in Russia expect any consequences of global warming. Everything has already happened. The future is already here, - Vladimir Kattsov, director of the Main Geophysical Observatory named after A. I. - Although what is happening is not always clear to us. On a frosty day or a cold summer, many want to argue: well, where is your global warming, look out the window! Nevertheless, it is there. And its most unpleasant consequence is the “nervousness” of the climate, rushing from one extreme to another. Do not think that abnormal heat is global warming, and a cold wave or powerful showers are not. Extremes,extremes are just manifestations of a changing climate. They have a common background.
Rain and snow are worse than tsunamis and volcanoes.
UNUSUAL: SNOW IN JUNE. OR IN SUGAR
- And the weather is becoming more and more diverse: events occur that are unusual for some point on the globe or season. This diversity is disturbing and dangerous. It has long been seen in model climate forecasts, it seemed fantastic, - continues Vladimir Kattsov.
You don't have to go far: in December there were showers in Moscow, and in June it snowed. At Christmas it fell even in the Sahara. And Moscow celebrated the New Year without snowdrifts. Complete confusion of time and place!
At Christmas it fell even in the Sahara.
- Thanks to this diversity, there is the illusion of delay. It's hot, the peat bogs are burning - everyone is mobilizing, they start talking about global warming. Then it got colder, and immediately there is a feeling: okay, maybe we'll still pull it. You will have to pay dearly for this illusion, - Vladimir Kattsov is sure. - It is clear that politicians face a lot of important and urgent tasks - terrorists, war, hunger, financial crises … But the climate has a peculiarity: it affects us not only directly, with record snowfalls and abnormal heat, but there is a climatic component in all others problems. Hunger, epidemics? Scratch a little and you will find climate among the causes. There is an illusion that with adaptation to climate change, you can tolerate - now we will straighten the economy, and then we will tackle the climate. Will not work. Another question,that under the flag of adaptation one can spend a lot of money. All decisions must be based on scientific research, otherwise this money will go to waste.
Literally - into the wind, into the rain, into the snow …
The number of weather disasters is increasing.
RUSSIA WILL HAVE TO THINK ABOUT EVERYTHING
Okay, meteorologists - here you can write off the fact that they are filling their own worth. But not only they consider the current weather a serious problem:
- The next, already the fifteenth, report of the World Economic Forum on all global risks has just appeared. So - in 2018, as in 2017, extreme weather events are in the first position. This is the main risk for humanity. Terrorism, mass migration - following the weather. And these are the estimates of almost a thousand very influential and authoritative experts, - Vladimir Kattsov reminds.
The climate on the planet is getting nervous.
“Extreme weather events” include such record snowfalls as in Moscow, and abnormal frosts or heat, storms, hurricanes (remember the recent “Harvey” and “Irma”), droughts, floods, forest fires …
- There are small countries where climate threats are associated with one manifestation. For example, island states are monitoring the rise in the level of the World Ocean, this is critical for them. Someone looks anxiously at hurricanes, - the expert continues. - Russia, with its vast territory and a variety of climatic conditions, has a lot of such challenges (from melting permafrost to droughts, from floods to problems with insect pests. - Ed.). At the same time, our vast territory is also a resource for adaptation (is it getting warmer? Well, okay, we’ll spend less money on heating. Ice in the Arctic is melting? We’ll make money on the Northern Sea Route. And so on. - Ed.). But one must be able to use it, draw up action plans for different regions and sectors of the economy.
The biggest increase is in spring.
- As an example, we can cite Japan - a country with very difficult natural conditions. Constant earthquakes, tsunamis, snowfalls, - adds Roman Vilfand, director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. “But the country is adapting so well and competently that the economy is flourishing there, the standard of living is very high. With the most extreme climates, one can thrive and live perfectly, a matter of assessing risks and choosing the right strategy.
New threats await humanity.
LEARNED TO PREDICT
- The forecast of dangerous weather phenomena is becoming more and more qualitative. Over the past 10 years, only one heavy snowfall in Moscow was not predicted in advance - it happened on December 7, 2009. All the rest were predicted, - Roman Vilfand said proudly. - However, there will never be one hundred percent accurate forecasts. The element of chaos in the atmosphere will remain in a hundred years and in a thousand.
TO DISCOVER SNOWFALLS?
And it's true: maybe it's more effective for us not to adapt, not to adapt, not to wait for favors from nature, but to go on the offensive? Here the rains before the parades over Moscow are dispersed - maybe we should do the same with record snowfalls?
- The very word "disperse" for meteorology is not suitable, it is from the lexicon of power structures, rather. There are not so many ways to actively influence the weather, - says Vilfand. - Yes, we are engaged in cloud dehydration to prevent rain in a specific place. You can make the fog disappear over the airport. It is possible and necessary to influence avalanches in the mountains. Is it worth influencing larger processes? My answer is no.
It is warming faster here than in the whole world.
Firstly, everyone has their own concept of "good weather". And now I am not only about the tastes of people (someone loves the sun hot, and someone loves frost), but also about the needs of various sectors of the economy. And to agree with choh - let's do this kind of weather - it is unlikely that it will work.
Secondly, humanity simply does not have the ability to generate energy comparable to the power of one cyclone (and snowfalls and showers are caused by cyclones). The energy of a young, newly born cyclone is about the same as that of 12-15 bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And people do not have energy comparable to a large cyclone. Fortunately.
And then there is the UN convention, which prohibits influencing the weather for military or "other hostile purposes." There are rumors - either about the experiments of the Americans in Alaska, or here in Nizhny Novgorod - but they only cause a smile.
YULIA SMIRNOVA
